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List of Figures | |
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List of Tables | |
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Preface | |
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Introduction and Overview | |
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Making decisions under uncertainty | |
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Overview of this book | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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Probability and Random Variables | |
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Probability | |
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Events and their probabilities | |
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Outcomes, events, and the sample space | |
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Set operations | |
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Rules of Probability | |
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Axioms of Probability | |
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Computing probabilities of events | |
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Applications in reliability | |
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Combinatorics | |
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Equally likely outcomes | |
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Permutations and combinations | |
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Conditional probability and independence | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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Discrete Random Variables and Their Distributions | |
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Distribution of a random variable | |
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Main concepts | |
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Types of random variables | |
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Distribution of a random vector | |
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Joint distribution and marginal distributions | |
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Independence of random variables | |
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Expectation and variance | |
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Expectation | |
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Expectation of a function | |
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Properties | |
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Variance and standard deviation | |
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Covariance and correlation | |
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Properties | |
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Chebyshev's inequality | |
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Application to finance | |
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Families of discrete distributions | |
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Bernoulli distribution | |
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Binomial distribution | |
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Geometric distribution | |
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Negative Binomial distribution | |
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Poisson distribution | |
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Poisson approximation of Binomial distribution | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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Continuous Distributions | |
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Probability density | |
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Families of continuous distributions | |
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Uniform distribution | |
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Exponential distribution | |
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Gamma distribution | |
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Normal distribution | |
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Central Limit Theorem | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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Computer Simulations and Monte Carlo Methods | |
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Introduction | |
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Applications and examples | |
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Simulation of random variables | |
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Random number generators | |
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Discrete methods | |
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Inverse transform method | |
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Rejection method | |
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Generation of random vectors | |
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Special methods | |
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Solving problems by Monte Carlo methods | |
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Estimating probabilities | |
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Estimating means and standard deviations | |
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Forecasting | |
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Estimating lengths, areas, and volumes | |
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Monte Carlo integration | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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II Stochastic Processes | |
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Stochastic Processes | |
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Definitions and classifications | |
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Markov processes and Markov chains | |
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Markov chains | |
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Matrix approach | |
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Steady-state distribution | |
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Counting processes | |
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Binomial process | |
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Poisson process | |
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Simulation of stochastic processes | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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Queuing Systems | |
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Main components of a queuing system | |
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The Little's Law | |
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Bernoulli single-server queuing process | |
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Systems with limited capacity | |
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M/M/1 system | |
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Evaluating the system's performance | |
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Multiserver queuing systems | |
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Bernoulli k-server queuing process | |
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M/M/k systems | |
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Unlimited number of servers and M/M/∞ | |
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Simulation of queuing systems | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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III Statistics | |
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Introduction to Statistics | |
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Population and sample, parameters and statistics | |
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Simple descriptive statistics | |
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Mean | |
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Median | |
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Quantiles, percentiles, and quartiles | |
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Variance and standard deviation | |
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Standard errors of estimates | |
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Interquartile range | |
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Graphical statistics | |
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Histogram | |
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Stem-and-leaf plot | |
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Boxplot | |
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Scatter plots and time plots | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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Statistical Inference I | |
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Parameter estimation | |
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Method of moments | |
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Method of maximum likelihood | |
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Estimation of standard errors | |
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Confidence intervals | |
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Construction of confidence intervals: a general method | |
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Confidence interval for the population mean | |
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Confidence interval for the difference between two means | |
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Selection of a sample size | |
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Estimating means with a given precision | |
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Unknown standard deviation | |
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Large samples | |
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Confidence intervals for proportions | |
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Estimating proportions with a given precision | |
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Small samples: Student's t distribution | |
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Comparison of two populations with unknown variances | |
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Hypothesis testing | |
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Hypothesis and alternative | |
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Type I and Type II errors: level of significance | |
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Level a tests: general approach | |
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Rejection regions and power | |
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Standard Normal null distribution (Z-test) | |
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Z-tests for means and proportions | |
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Pooled sample proportion | |
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Unknown �: T-tests | |
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Duality: two-sided tests and two-sided confidence intervals | |
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P-value | |
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Inference about variances | |
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Variance estimator and Chi-square distribution | |
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Confidence interval for the population variance | |
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Testing variance | |
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Comparison of two variances. F-distribution | |
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Confidence interval for the ratio of population variances | |
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F-tests comparing two variances | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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Statistical Inference II | |
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Chi-square tests | |
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Testing a distribution | |
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Testing a family of distributions | |
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Testing independence | |
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Nonparametric statistics | |
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Sign test | |
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Wilcoxon signed rank test | |
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Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon rank sum test | |
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Bootstrap | |
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Bootstrap distribution and all bootstrap samples | |
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Computer generated bootstrap samples | |
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Bootstrap confidence intervals | |
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Bayesian inference | |
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Prior and posterior | |
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Bayesian estimation | |
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Bayesian credible sets | |
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Bayesian hypothesis testing | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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Regression | |
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Least squares estimation | |
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Examples | |
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Method of least squares | |
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Linear regression | |
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Regression and correlation | |
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Overfitting a model | |
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Analysis of variance, prediction, and further inference | |
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ANOVA and R-square | |
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Tests and confidence intervals | |
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Prediction | |
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Multivariate regression | |
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Introduction and examples | |
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Matrix approach and least squares estimation | |
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Analysis of variance, tests, and prediction | |
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Model building | |
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Adjusted R-square | |
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Extra sum of squares, partial F-tests, and variable selection | |
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Categorical predictors and dummy variables | |
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Summary and conclusions | |
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Exercises | |
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IV Appendix | |
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Appendix | |
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Inventory of distributions | |
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Discrete families | |
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Continuous families | |
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Distribution tables | |
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Calculus review | |
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Inverse function | |
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Limits and continuity | |
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Sequences and series | |
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Derivatives, minimum, and maximum | |
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Integrals | |
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Matrices and linear systems | |
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Answers to selected exercises | |
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Index | |