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| Statistics Aren't Just for Research Anymore | |
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| Questionnaire | |
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| Probability: Some Basic Rules | |
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| Probability and Research | |
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| Subjective Probability and Assessing Risk | |
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| Using Heuristics to Assess Risk | |
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| Conjunction Junction | |
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| The Conjunction Fallacy | |
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| Probability and Chance Events | |
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| Amazing Coincidences | |
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| 80% Certain, but 0% Sure | |
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| Summary | |
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| Practice Problems | |
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| The Law of Large Numbers | |
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| What Is the Law of Large Numbers? | |
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| How Good Are We at Applying the LLN? | |
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| The Representativeness Heuristic and Failures to Apply the LLN | |
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| Do People Have an Intuitive Version of the LLN? | |
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| The Impact of Single Cases | |
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| Single Cases Versus Group Statistics | |
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| "Person-who" Statistics | |
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| Perceptions of Randomness | |
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| Randomness and Belief in the "Hot Hand" | |
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| Summary | |
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| Practice Problems | |
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| Estimation of Population Parameters: The Problem of Sample Bias | |
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| The Process of Estimation | |
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| Biased Samples from the Mass Media | |
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| Attribution: Determining Cause | |
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| Estimation Based on Single Cases | |
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| Generalizing from the Self to Others | |
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| The False Consensus Effect | |
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| The Illusion of Transparency | |
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| The Spotlight Effect | |
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| Summary | |
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| Practice Problems | |
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| Correlation | |
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| What Is a Correlation? | |
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| Assessing Correlations in Everyday Life | |
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| Difficulties in Assessing Correlations | |
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| Assessing Correlations from Incomplete Data | |
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| The Positive-Test Strategy | |
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| Biased Expectations and Illusory Correlations | |
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| Distinctive Events, Illusory Correlations, and Stereotypes | |
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| Illusions of Control | |
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| Accuracy of Correlation Detection | |
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| Summary | |
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| Practice Problems | |
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| Regression and Prediction | |
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| Correlation, Prediction, and Regression | |
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| Regression Toward the Mean | |
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| How Good Are We at Making Predictions? | |
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| Regression Toward the Mean in Everyday Life | |
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| Examples from the World of Sports | |
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| Ozone and Gas Prices | |
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| The Magazine Curse | |
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| Alternative Health Remedies | |
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| Other Ways to Conceptualize Regression Toward the Mean | |
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| The Law of Large Numbers and Regression Toward the Mean | |
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| Summary | |
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| Practice Problems | |
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| Factorial Analysis of Variance and Attribution | |
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| What Is a Factorial Analysis of Variance? | |
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| How Is a Factorial ANOVA Related to Everyday Reasoning? | |
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| Single Versus Multiple Causes | |
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| Attribution Theory | |
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| Biased Attributions | |
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| Summary | |
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| Practice Problems | |
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| Analysis of Covariance | |
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| What Is Analysis of Covariance? | |
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| Analysis of Covariance in Everyday Life | |
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| ANCOVA and Stereotyping | |
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| ANCOVA and Perceptions of Changes in Subpopulations | |
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| Summary | |
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| Practice Problems | |
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| Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem | |
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| Understanding Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem | |
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| Common Difficulties in Bayesian Reasoning | |
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| Confusion About Conditional Probabilities | |
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| Base-Rate Neglect | |
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| Improving Our Ability to Engage in Bayesian Reasoning | |
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| Bayesian Reasoning in Legal Settings | |
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| Conditional Probability and the Monty Hall Dilemma | |
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| Summary | |
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| Practice Problems | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Glossary | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |