|Statistics Aren't Just for Research Anymore
|Probability: Some Basic Rules
|Probability and Research
|Subjective Probability and Assessing Risk
|Using Heuristics to Assess Risk
|The Conjunction Fallacy
|Probability and Chance Events
|80% Certain, but 0% Sure
|The Law of Large Numbers
|What Is the Law of Large Numbers?
|How Good Are We at Applying the LLN?
|The Representativeness Heuristic and Failures to Apply the LLN
|Do People Have an Intuitive Version of the LLN?
|The Impact of Single Cases
|Single Cases Versus Group Statistics
|Perceptions of Randomness
|Randomness and Belief in the "Hot Hand"
|Estimation of Population Parameters: The Problem of Sample Bias
|The Process of Estimation
|Biased Samples from the Mass Media
|Attribution: Determining Cause
|Estimation Based on Single Cases
|Generalizing from the Self to Others
|The False Consensus Effect
|The Illusion of Transparency
|The Spotlight Effect
|What Is a Correlation?
|Assessing Correlations in Everyday Life
|Difficulties in Assessing Correlations
|Assessing Correlations from Incomplete Data
|The Positive-Test Strategy
|Biased Expectations and Illusory Correlations
|Distinctive Events, Illusory Correlations, and Stereotypes
|Illusions of Control
|Accuracy of Correlation Detection
|Regression and Prediction
|Correlation, Prediction, and Regression
|Regression Toward the Mean
|How Good Are We at Making Predictions?
|Regression Toward the Mean in Everyday Life
|Examples from the World of Sports
|Ozone and Gas Prices
|The Magazine Curse
|Alternative Health Remedies
|Other Ways to Conceptualize Regression Toward the Mean
|The Law of Large Numbers and Regression Toward the Mean
|Factorial Analysis of Variance and Attribution
|What Is a Factorial Analysis of Variance?
|How Is a Factorial ANOVA Related to Everyday Reasoning?
|Single Versus Multiple Causes
|Analysis of Covariance
|What Is Analysis of Covariance?
|Analysis of Covariance in Everyday Life
|ANCOVA and Stereotyping
|ANCOVA and Perceptions of Changes in Subpopulations
|Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem
|Understanding Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem
|Common Difficulties in Bayesian Reasoning
|Confusion About Conditional Probabilities
|Improving Our Ability to Engage in Bayesian Reasoning
|Bayesian Reasoning in Legal Settings
|Conditional Probability and the Monty Hall Dilemma