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Everyday Statistical Reasoning Possibilities and Pitfalls

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ISBN-10: 0534590950

ISBN-13: 9780534590956

Edition: 2002

Authors: Timothy J. Lawson

List price: $49.95
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Lawson uses scientific research and interesting examples to explain to readers how statistical concepts can be applied to everyday decisions and judgements. Practical, user-friendly discussion of topics such as probability, correlation, and covariance help readers make the connections between statistical concepts and the work they do in their psychology courses and labs.
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Book details

List price: $49.95
Copyright year: 2002
Publisher: Wadsworth
Publication date: 7/18/2001
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 160
Size: 6.69" wide x 9.45" long
Weight: 0.550
Language: English

Statistics Aren't Just for Research Anymore
Probability: Some Basic Rules
Probability and Research
Subjective Probability and Assessing Risk
Using Heuristics to Assess Risk
Conjunction Junction
The Conjunction Fallacy
Probability and Chance Events
Amazing Coincidences
80% Certain, but 0% Sure
Practice Problems
The Law of Large Numbers
What Is the Law of Large Numbers?
How Good Are We at Applying the LLN?
The Representativeness Heuristic and Failures to Apply the LLN
Do People Have an Intuitive Version of the LLN?
The Impact of Single Cases
Single Cases Versus Group Statistics
"Person-who" Statistics
Perceptions of Randomness
Randomness and Belief in the "Hot Hand"
Practice Problems
Estimation of Population Parameters: The Problem of Sample Bias
The Process of Estimation
Biased Samples from the Mass Media
Attribution: Determining Cause
Estimation Based on Single Cases
Generalizing from the Self to Others
The False Consensus Effect
The Illusion of Transparency
The Spotlight Effect
Practice Problems
What Is a Correlation?
Assessing Correlations in Everyday Life
Difficulties in Assessing Correlations
Assessing Correlations from Incomplete Data
The Positive-Test Strategy
Biased Expectations and Illusory Correlations
Distinctive Events, Illusory Correlations, and Stereotypes
Illusions of Control
Accuracy of Correlation Detection
Practice Problems
Regression and Prediction
Correlation, Prediction, and Regression
Regression Toward the Mean
How Good Are We at Making Predictions?
Regression Toward the Mean in Everyday Life
Examples from the World of Sports
Ozone and Gas Prices
The Magazine Curse
Alternative Health Remedies
Other Ways to Conceptualize Regression Toward the Mean
The Law of Large Numbers and Regression Toward the Mean
Practice Problems
Factorial Analysis of Variance and Attribution
What Is a Factorial Analysis of Variance?
How Is a Factorial ANOVA Related to Everyday Reasoning?
Single Versus Multiple Causes
Attribution Theory
Biased Attributions
Practice Problems
Analysis of Covariance
What Is Analysis of Covariance?
Analysis of Covariance in Everyday Life
ANCOVA and Stereotyping
ANCOVA and Perceptions of Changes in Subpopulations
Practice Problems
Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem
Understanding Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem
Common Difficulties in Bayesian Reasoning
Confusion About Conditional Probabilities
Base-Rate Neglect
Improving Our Ability to Engage in Bayesian Reasoning
Bayesian Reasoning in Legal Settings
Conditional Probability and the Monty Hall Dilemma
Practice Problems