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| Preface | |
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| Challenging Widely Accepted Claims | |
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| Empowering Students to Evaluate Claims for Themselves | |
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| Distinguishing Science from Pseudoscience | |
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| Teaching Scientific Reasoning Skills | |
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| Using Memorable Examples | |
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| Exploring Material Relevant to Many Courses | |
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| Broad Coverage Is Complemented by Electronic Resources | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| About the Author | |
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| Evaluating Sources Whether in Print or on the World Wide Web | |
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| Sharpening and Leveling | |
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| Criteria for Evaluating the Quality of Sources | |
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| Popularity | |
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| Reviews | |
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| The Internet as a Research Tool | |
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| The Content of Web Sites | |
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| Internet Searches | |
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| Thinking for Yourself | |
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| Introduction: Pseudoscience and the Need for Clear Thinking | |
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| Separating Sense from Nonsense | |
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| Studying Human Reasoning | |
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| Systematic Errors Reveal Our Mental Shortcuts | |
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| The Pros and Cons of Relying on Shortcuts | |
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| Thinking Clearly | |
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| Applying the Tools of Clear Thinking | |
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| Ten Characteristics of Pseudoscience | |
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| Outward Appearance of Science | |
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| Absence of Skeptical Peer Review | |
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| Reliance on Personal Experience | |
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| Evasion of Risky Tests | |
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| Retreats to the Supernatural | |
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| The Mantra of Holism | |
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| Tolerance of Inconsistencies | |
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| Appeals to Authority | |
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| Promising the Impossible | |
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| Stagnation | |
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| The Plan of This Book | |
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| Deception | |
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| Self-Deception | |
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| Psychological Tricks | |
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| Decision Making and Ethics | |
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| Deception | |
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| Language: Misleading and Evasive Tactics | |
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| Weasel Words and Framing Effects | |
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| Cooperation and Conversational Maxims | |
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| Quality: The Myth of "Health Food" | |
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| Quantity: Suggestive and Leading Questions | |
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| Relation: The Irrelevant Language of "Alternative" Health Care | |
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| Manner: The Emptiness of "Holism" | |
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| Closing Thoughts: False Dichotomies and the Slippery Slope | |
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| Magic: The Allure of Exotic Rituals, Fantasy, and Mysticism | |
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| Believing in Magic | |
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| Wishful Thinking | |
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| Belief in a Vitalistic Energy | |
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| Putting the "Human Energy Field" to the Test | |
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| The Creation of Superstitions and Exotic Rituals | |
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| Superstitions as Representative Thinking | |
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| Maintenance of Superstitions | |
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| Abuses of Science in Favor of Mysticism | |
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| The Magic of Modern Technology | |
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| Authority: Appeals to Blind Obedience | |
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| Milgram's Obedience Research | |
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| Understanding Milgram's Results | |
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| When Should We Obey? | |
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| Untrustworthy Authorities | |
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| The "Ancient Wisdom" Fallacy | |
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| The Popularity Fallacy | |
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| The Fallacy of Self-Proclaimed Expertise | |
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| Political Lobbying as a Warning Flag | |
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| The National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine | |
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| The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act | |
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| Self-Deception | |
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| Experience: The Limitations of Testimonials as Evidence | |
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| Self-Deception | |
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| Competing Explanations | |
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| The Placebo Effect | |
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| Spontaneous Remission | |
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| The Disease Ran Its Natural Course | |
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| The Cyclical Nature of Many Diseases | |
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| Misdiagnosis | |
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| The "Worried Well" | |
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| Symptomatic Relief | |
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| Hedged Bets | |
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| Derivative Benefits | |
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| Psychological Distortion of Reality | |
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| The Bottom Line | |
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| Probabilistic General Principles | |
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| Plausibility: All Beliefs Are Not Created Equal | |
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| Magnet Therapy: Claims Versus Reality | |
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| Magnets and Water | |
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| Magnets and the Human Body | |
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| The Strength of "Therapeutic" Magnets | |
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| Homeopathy: Empty Promises | |
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| The Law of Similars | |
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| The Law of Infinitesimals | |
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| Lowering the Dilution Factor | |
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| "Water Memory" | |
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| Alien Abductions: A Modern-Day Misunderstanding | |
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| The Contamination Effect | |
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| Dull Fantasies and Contradictions | |
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| Sleep Paralysis | |
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| Association: Establishing and Interpreting Correlations | |
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| Presuming an Association Through Mere Examples | |
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| Presuming an Association Through a Lone Rate | |
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| Interpreting a Correlation | |
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| Causal Relationships Between Correlated Events | |
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| Three Conditions for Causality | |
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| Examining Patterns Across Multiple Correlations | |
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| Beware the Media | |
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| Do Horoscopes Predict Anything? | |
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| Science: Evaluating Claims to Knowledge | |
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| Scientific Reasoning | |
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| Falsifiability | |
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| Logic | |
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| Comprehensiveness | |
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| Honesty | |
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| Replicability | |
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| Sufficiency | |
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| Antiscientific Beliefs: Postmodernism and Other Fallacious Ideas | |
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| Postmodernism | |
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| The "What Works Is Different for Everybody" Fallacy | |
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| The "Probability Is Irrelevant to the Unique Individual" Fallacy | |
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| The Rejection of Science as a Pseudoscientist's Dream | |
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| Psychological Tricks | |
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| Risk: Biased Perceptions and the Media Paradox | |
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| Vividness | |
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| Availability | |
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| The Media Paradox | |
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| Falling Airplane Parts Revisited | |
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| A Radical Conjecture | |
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| Mindful Attention to Media Reports | |
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| Belief: Confirmation Bias, Post-Hockery, and Overconfidence | |
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| Discovery Versus Verification: The Importance of Prediction | |
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| The Bible Code | |
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| The "Hot Hand" in Basketball | |
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| Confirmation Bias | |
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| The Rorschach Ink Blot Test | |
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| Graphology: Handwriting Analysis | |
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| Polygraphy: The "Lie Detector" Test | |
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| Absent or Misleading Feedback | |
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| Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence | |
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| Foiling Post-Hockery | |
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| Answers to the Confidence Quiz | |
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| Schemes: The Seductiveness of Grand Conspiracy Theories | |
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| The Three Roles in a Conspiracy Theory | |
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| Conspirators | |
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| Saviors | |
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| Dupes | |
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| A Grand Conspiracy Theory: "Area 51" | |
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| The Role of the Media | |
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| Thinking Clearly About Area 51 | |
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| Problems Facing Any Grand Conspiracy Theory | |
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| The "Hidden Cure" Conspiracy | |
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| Intense Competition Is Ignored | |
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| The Alleged Profit Motive Makes No Sense | |
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| Science Is Never Going to Cure All Disease | |
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| Monumental Callousness Is Presumed | |
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| Why Does the Theory of Hidden Cures Persist? | |
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| Challenging Conspiracies | |
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| Illusions: The Perception of Control | |
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| The Illusion of Control | |
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| The Certainty Effect | |
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| The Dangers of Illusions of Control | |
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| Belief in the "Just World" and the Blaming of Victims | |
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| Self-Blame | |
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| Learned Helplessness | |
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| The Downside to Mental Imagery | |
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| The "Choose to Be Healthy" Fallacy | |
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| Prayer and Religion-Motivated Medical Neglect | |
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| Decision Making and Ethics | |
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| Assessment: Classical Decision Theory | |
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| Mammograms | |
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| Classical Decision Theory | |
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| The Impact of Low Base Rates | |
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| Lie Detection | |
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| Two Different Perspectives on Accuracy | |
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| The Impact of Selection Ratios | |
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| Nutritional Scams | |
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| Validity | |
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| Base Rates | |
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| Selection Ratio | |
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| Protecting Against Professional Misconduct | |
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| Decisions: Clinical Versus Statistical Approaches | |
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| Two Approaches to Decision Making | |
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| Why Is the Statistical Approach Superior? | |
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| Validity | |
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| Units of Measurement | |
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| Reliability | |
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| Redundancy | |
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| Regression Effects | |
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| Adherence to the Clinical Approach | |
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| Knowledge Deficit | |
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| Fear of Computers | |
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| Fear of Unemployment | |
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| Belief in the Efficacy of One's Judgment | |
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| Theoretical Identifications | |
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| The "Dehumanizing" Feel of Statistical Equations | |
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| Mistaken Conception of Ethics | |
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| Embracing Statistical Decisions | |
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| Pro/Con Lists | |
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| Professional Practice | |
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| Statistics Do Apply to the Individual | |
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| Ethics: The Use and Promotion of Unverified Treatments | |
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| Overlooking the Obvious in Favor of the Unlikely | |
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| Repressed Memories and Multiple Personalities | |
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| Cost-Benefit Ratio | |
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| Skewed Projections of Benefit and Harm | |
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| The Overlooked Opportunity Costs | |
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| Truly Informed Consent and Patient Autonomy | |
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| The "Health Freedom" Fallacy | |
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| Tools: Suggestions for Clear Thinking | |
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| The Dangers of a Pseudoscientific Approach to Health Care | |
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| Thinking Clearly | |
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| Reconceptualize Issues in Multiple Ways | |
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| Beware of Wishful Thinking | |
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| Consider the Legitimacy of Authorities | |
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| Seek Risky Tests, Not Weak Confirmation | |
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| Don't Be Misled by Testimonials | |
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| Keep in Touch with Reality | |
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| Remember That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation | |
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| Beware the Media Paradox | |
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| Formulate Multiple Working Hypotheses | |
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| Ask What Can Be Predicted | |
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| Challenge Conspiracy Theories | |
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| Watch Out for Illusions of Control | |
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| Be Careful Not to Blame Victims | |
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| Consider Both Positive and Negative Consequences of a Claim | |
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| Pay Attention to Base Rates | |
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| Accept Some Mistakes in Order to Minimize Error | |
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| Take Advantage of the Power of Statistical Decision Making | |
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| Don't Misinterpret Regression Toward the Mean | |
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| Consider Both Costs and Benefits | |
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| Practice Scientific Reasoning | |
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| A Closing Thought on Wishful Thinking | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |