Introduction to Decision Theory

ISBN-10: 0521716543

ISBN-13: 9780521716543

Edition: 2009

Authors: Martin Peterson

List price: $62.95
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Book details

List price: $62.95
Copyright year: 2009
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Publication date: 5/14/2009
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 325
Size: 7.25" wide x 10.00" long x 0.50" tall
Weight: 1.122
Language: English

Martin Peterson is Associate Professor of Philosophy at the Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden. He is author of Non-Bayesian Decision Theory (2008).

Normative and descriptive decision theory
Rational and right decisions
Risk, ignorance and uncertainty
Social choice theory and game theory
A very brief history of decision theory
The decision matrix
Rival formalisations
Decisions under ignorance
Maximin and leximin
Maximax and the optimism-pessimism rule
Minimax regret
The principle of insufficient reason
Randomised acts
Decisions under risk
Maximising what?
Why is it rational to maximise expected utility?
The axiomatic approach
Allais' paradox
Ellsberg's paradox
The St Petersburg paradox
The two-envelope paradox
How to construct an ordinal scale
von Neumann and Morgenstern's interval scale
Can utility be measured on a ratio scale?
Can we define utility without being able to measure it?
The mathematics of probability
The probability calculus
Conditional probability
Bayes' theorem
The problem of unknown priors
The philosophy of probability
The classical interpretation
The frequency interpretation
The propensity interpretation
Logical and epistemic interpretations
Subjective probability
Why should we accept the preference axioms?
Must a rational preference be transitive?
Must a rational preference be complete?
The multi-attribute approach
Must a rational preference satisfy the independence axiom?
Risk aversion
Causal vs. evidential decision theory
Newcomb's problem
Causal decision theory
Evidential decision theory
Bayesian vs. non-Bayesian decision theory
What is Bayesianism?
Arguments for and against Bayesianism
Non-Bayesian approaches
Game theory I: Basic concepts and zero-sum games
The prisoner's dilemma
A taxonomy of games
Common knowledge and dominance reasoning
Two-person zero-sum games
Mixed strategies and the minimax theorem
Game theory II: Nonzero-sum and cooperative games
The Nash equilibrium
The battle of the sexes and chicken
The bargaining problem
Iterated games
Game theory and evolution
Game theory and ethics
Social choice theory
The social choice problem
Arrow's impossibility theorem
Sen on liberalism and the Pareto principle
Harsanyi's utilitarian theorems
Overview of descriptive decision theory
Observed violations of the expected utility principle
Prospect theory
Violations of transitivity and completeness
The relevance of descriptive decision theory
Proof of the von Neumann-Morgenstern theorem
Further reading
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