Determinants of Democratization Explaining Regime Change in the World, 1972-2006

ISBN-10: 0521139686

ISBN-13: 9780521139687

Edition: 2010

Authors: Jan Teorell

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What are the determinants of democratization? Do the factors that move countries towards democracy also help them refrain from backsliding towards autocracy? This book purports to answer these questions through a combination of a statistical analysis of social, economic and international determinants of regime change in 165 countries around the world in 1972-2006, and case study work on 9 episodes of democratization occurring in Argentina, Bolivia, Hungary, Nepal, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Turkey, and Uruguay. The findings suggest that democracy is promoted by long-term structural forces such as economic prosperity, but also by peaceful popular uprisings and the institutional set-up of authoritarian regimes. In the short-run, however, elite actors may play a key role, particularly through the importance of intra-regime splits. Jan Teorell argues that these results have important repercussions both for current theories of democratization and the international community's effort in developing policies for democracy promotion.
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Book details

List price: $34.99
Copyright year: 2010
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Publication date: 10/28/2010
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 222
Size: 5.75" wide x 8.75" long x 0.50" tall
Weight: 1.012
Language: English

Jan Teorell is Associate Professor of Political Science at Lund University. His most recent publications have appeared in Studies in Comparative International Development, the European Journal of Political Research, the Journal of Democracy, Governance, and Political Research Quarterly.

List of tables
List of figures
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Factors driving and not driving the third wave
Institutions under authoritarianism
Theoretical implications
Policy implications
Plan of the book
Explaining democratization
The structural approach
The strategic approach
The social forces tradition
The economic approach
The present approach: theoretical eclecticism, methods combined
The shadow of the past: social determinants
The literature on domestic social determinants
Empirical results
Islam and democracy
Why are small countries more likely to democratize?
Conclusion
The power of prosperity: economic determinants
Modernization, performance and resource abundance
Economic inequality and freedom
Socioeconomic modernization and democratic recalcitrance
Economic crises and authoritarian vulnerability
Conclusion
The impetus from abroad: international determinants
The literature on international determinants
Empirical results
Trade dependency and stalled democratization
What explains neighbor diffusion?
Do regional organizations foster democratization?
Conclusion
The force from below: popular mobilization
The literature and empirical results
Why are peaceful demonstrations conducive to democratization?
Conclusion
Exogenous shocks and authoritarian regime types: institutional contingency?
Types of authoritarian regimes and democratization
Estimation strategy
Empirical results
Conclusion
Conclusions
Summary of findings
Explanatory performance
Towards an integrated theory of democratization?
Lessons for the future study of democratization
Lessons for democracy promotion
Lesson for the future of democratization
Data and variable definitions
Statistical model
Robustness tests
The pathway criterion
References
Index
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