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Decision Analysis for Management Judgement

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ISBN-10: 047192833X

ISBN-13: 9780471928331

Edition: 1991

Authors: Paul Goodwin, George Wright

List price: $63.00
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Description:

In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis can play a major role in helping decision makers to gain a greater understanding of the problems they face; particularly as research has shown that the decision-making process can often go wrong. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. Written in a user-friendly style and using practical examples, it shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in a structured way so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established. Extended and updated to include the latest ideas and techniques, new features of this edition include chapters on the analytic hierarchy process, decision framing, scenario planning and how unaided decision makers make decisions, while more exercises and discussion questions have been included at the end of most chapters. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is an essentially practical book which draws together ideas from a variety of disciplines - including psychology, management science and statistics. Assuming little or no prior knowledge of these disciplines, it will help both practicing managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and decision analysis courses. "I found the book well organized, informative, and especially easy to read ... I give the book my highest recommendation." Journal of the Operational Research Society "This is an excellent introductory text on decision analysis and the best I have seen ... Goodwin and Wright have written a remarkably complete text. It is hard to find fault with this book." Interfaces "[This book] offers plenty of thought-provoking questions and inspiration for new ways of tackling decision problems. [It] makes for easy and interesting reading." Scandinavian Journal of Management "All in all, this book is well written,user friendly, and very informative. A very worthwhile book." Personnel Psychology
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Book details

List price: $63.00
Copyright year: 1991
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 8/21/1991
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 326
Size: 6.22" wide x 9.33" long x 0.94" tall
Weight: 1.496

Decisions Involving Multiple Objectives
How People Make Decisions Involving Multiple Objectives
Introduction to Probability
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams
Applying Simulation to Decision Problems
Revising Judgments in the Light of New Information
Biases in Probability Assessment
Methods for Eliciting Probabilities
Decisions Involving Groups of Individuals
Resource Allocation and Negotiation Problems
Decision Framing and Cognitive Inertia
Scenario Planning: An Alternative Way of Dealing with Uncertainty
The Analytic Hierarchy Process
Alternative Decision-Support Systems
Suggested Answers to Selected Questions
Suppliers of Computer Software
Index