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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

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ISBN-10: 0470861088

ISBN-13: 9780470861080

Edition: 3rd 2004 (Revised)

Authors: Paul Goodwin, George Wright

List price: $77.95
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Description:

Decision analysis can play a valuable role in helping people to make decisions that involve risks or multiple objectives, but potential users are often deterred by the presentation of the subject in a mathematical form. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators. Written in a user-friendly style, with little or no mathematical notation, and using practical examples, the book is unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It demonstrates the pitfalls associated with unaided decision making and shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in structured ways so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for…    
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Book details

List price: $77.95
Edition: 3rd
Copyright year: 2004
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 3/1/2004
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 492
Size: 7.00" wide x 9.75" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.782
Language: English

Foreword
Preface
Introduction
How people make decisions involving multiple objectives
Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART
Introduction to probability
Decision making under uncertainty
Decision trees and influence diagrams
Applying simulation to decision problems
Revising judgments in the light of new information
Biases in probability assessment
Methods for eliciting probabilities
Risk and uncertainty management
Decisions involving groups of individuals
Resource allocation and negotiation problems
Decision framing and cognitive inertia
Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty
The analytic hierarchy process
Alternative decision-support systems
Suggested answers to selected questions
Index