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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

ISBN-10: 0470861088

ISBN-13: 9780470861080

Edition: 3rd 2004 (Revised)

Authors: Paul Goodwin, George Wright

List price: $77.95
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Description:

Decision analysis can play a valuable role in helping people to make decisions that involve risks or multiple objectives, but potential users are often deterred by the presentation of the subject in a mathematical form. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators. Written in a user-friendly style, with little or no mathematical notation, and using practical examples, the book is unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It demonstrates the pitfalls associated with unaided decision making and shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in structured ways so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established. Extended and updated, this new edition contains a new chapter on structured risk and uncertainty management, updated coverage of research on how people make decisions, including fast and frugal heuristics, a detailed case study demonstrating the application of scenario planning and enhanced coverage of decision framing. Additional exercises have also been added to many chapters, while a companion web site contains valuable resources for lecturers and students. These include detailed answers to end-of-chapter exercises, PowerPoint slides, specimen examination papers and coursework with suggested answers, and links to other resources on the Internet, including downloadable software. Assuming no prior knowledge of decision analysis, this book will help both practising managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and operations research courses.
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Book details

List price: $77.95
Edition: 3rd
Copyright year: 2004
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 3/1/2004
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 492
Size: 7.00" wide x 9.75" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.782
Language: English

Foreword
Preface
Introduction
How people make decisions involving multiple objectives
Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART
Introduction to probability
Decision making under uncertainty
Decision trees and influence diagrams
Applying simulation to decision problems
Revising judgments in the light of new information
Biases in probability assessment
Methods for eliciting probabilities
Risk and uncertainty management
Decisions involving groups of individuals
Resource allocation and negotiation problems
Decision framing and cognitive inertia
Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty
The analytic hierarchy process
Alternative decision-support systems
Suggested answers to selected questions
Index