Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management

Name: Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management
Availability: OutOfStock
ISBN: 9780470282373

ISBN-10: 0470282371

ISBN-13: 9780470282373

Edition: 3rd 2009

Authors: Yacov Y. Haimes

List price: $183.00

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Description:

Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 3/e, describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work integrates the art and science of risk analysis. It shows clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. Presenting basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, and incorporating numerous examples and case…

Book details

List price: $183.00
Edition: 3rd
Copyright year: 2009
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 1/7/2009
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 1040
Size: 6.35" wide x 9.50" long x 2.02" tall
Weight: 3.190
Language: English



Preface


Acknowledgments



Fundamentals Of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management.



The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis.



Introduction



Systems Engineering



Risk Assessment and Management



Concept Road Map: The Farmer's Dilemma



Epilogue


References



The Role of Modeling in the Risk Analysis Process.



Introduction



The Risk Assessment and Management Process



Information, Intelligence, and Models



The Building Blocks of Mathematical Models



The Farmer's Dilemma Revisited



Example Problems


References



Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling.



Hierarchical Aspects



Hierarchical Overlapping Coordination



Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)



Hierarchical Holographic Modeling and the Theory of Scenario Structuring



Adaptive Multiplayer HHM (AMP-HHM) Game


3.6


3.7


3.8


3.9


3.10


3.11


3.12


3.13


References



Decision Analysis.



Introduction



Decision Rules Under Uncertainty



Decision Trees



Decision Matrix



The Fractile Method



Triangular Distribution


4.7


4.8


4.9


4.10


References



Multiobjective Trade-Off Analysis.



Introduction



Examples of Multiple Environmental Objectives



The Surrogate Worth Trade-off (SWT) Method



Characterizing a Proper Noninferior Solution



The Surrogate Worth Trade-off Method and the Utility Function Approach



Example Problems



Summary


References



Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis.



Introduction



Sensitivity, Responsivity, Stability, and Irreversibility



Uncertainties Due to Errors in Modeling



Characterization of Modeling Errors



Uncertainty Taxonomy



The Uncertainty Sensitivity Index Method



Formulation of the Multiobjective Optimization Problem



A Robust Algorithm of the USIM



Integration of the USIM with Parameter Optimization at the Design Stage



Conclusions


References



Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management



Introduction



Past Efforts in Risk Filtering and Ranking



Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management A Methodological Framework


7.4


7.5


References



Advances In Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management.



Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value.



Introduction



Risk of Extreme Events



The Fallacy of the Expected Value



The Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method



General Formulation of the PMRM



Summary of the PMRM



Illustrative Example



Analysis of Dam Failure and Extreme Floods Through the PMRM



Example Problems



Summary


References



Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis.



Introduction



Methodological Approach



Differences Between Single- and Multiple-Objective Decision Trees



Summary



Example Problems


References



Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method.



Introduction



Impact Analysis



The Multiobjective, Multistage Impact Analysis Method: An Overview



Combining the PMRM and the MMIAM



Relating Multiobjective Decision Trees to the Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method


10.6


10.7


References



Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM.



A Review of the Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method



Statistics of Extremes



Incorporating the Statistics of Extremes into the PMRM



Sensitivity Analysis of the Approximation of f<sub>4</sub> (ï¿½)



Generalized Quantification of Risk of Extreme Events



Summary



Example Problems


References



Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity.



Background



Calculating Sensitivity and Specificity



Battery Selection



Determining the Performance (Predictivity and Selectivity) of the Test Battery



Trade-offs and Policy Analysis


References



Fault Trees.



Introduction



Basic Fault-Tree Analysis



Reliability and Fault-Tree Analysis



Minimal Cut Sets



The Distribution Analyzer and Risk Evaluator Using Fault Trees



Extreme Events in Fault-Tree Analysis



An Example Problem Based on a Case Study



Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA); Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)



Event Trees.



Example Problems


References



Multiobjective Statistical Method.



Introduction



Mathematical Formulation of the Interior Drainage Problem



Formulation of the Optimization Problem



The Multiobjective Statistical Method (MSM): Step-by-Step



The Surrogate Worth Trade-off (SWT) Method



Multiple Objectives



Applying the MSM



Example Problems


References



Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management.



Introduction



Definitions and Principles of Project Risk Management



Project Risk Management Methods



Aircraft Development Example



Quantitative Risk Assessment and Management of Software Acquisition



Critical Factors That Affect Software Nontechnical Risk



Basis for Variances in Cost Estimation



Discrete Dynamic Modeling



Summary


References



Applying Risk Analysis to Space Missions.



Introduction



Overview of Selected Space Missions



Risk Analysis Examples for Selected Space Missions



Hierarchical Holographic Modeling



Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management



Epilogue


References



Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Terrorism.



Overview



On the Definition of Vulnerabilities in Measuring Risks to Infrastructures



Risk-Based Methodology for Scenario Tracking, Intelligence Gathering, and Analysis for Countering Terrorism



Homeland Security Preparedness: Balancing Protection with Resilience in Emergent Systems



Risk of Terrorism to Information Technology and to Critical Interdependent Infrastructures


References



Inoperability Input-Output Model and Its Derivatives for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors.



Overview



Background: The Original Leontief I/O Model



Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM)



Regimes of Recovery



Supporting Databases for IIM Analysis



National and Regional Databases for IIM Analysis



Regional Input-Output Multiplier System (RIMS II)



Development of IIM and Its Derivatives



The Dynamic IIM



Practical Uses of IIM



Uncertainty IIM



Example Problems



Summary


References



Case Studies.



A Risk-Based Input-Output Methodology for Measuring the Effects of the August 2003 Northeast Blackout



Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Applying the Inoperability Input-Output Model with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina



Ex Post Analysis Using the IIM of the September 11, 2001 Attack on the US



Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat



The Statistics of Extreme Events and 6-Sigma Capability


References


Appendix: Optimization Techniques.



Introduction to Modeling and Optimization



Classical Unconstrained Optimization Problems



Classical Equality Constraint Problem



Newton-Raphson Method



Linear Programming



Dynamic Programming



Generalized Nonlinear Programming



Multiobjective Decision Trees



Derivation of the Expected Value of a Log-normal Distribution



Derivation of the Conditional Expected Value of a Log-normal Distribution



Triangular Distribution: Unconditional and Conditional Expected Values



Standard Normal Distribution Probability Table


References


Index