| |
| |
| Preface | |
| |
| |
| Guided Tour | |
| |
| |
| Acknowledgements | |
| |
| |
| |
| Introduction | |
| |
| |
| The Use of Quantitative Techniques by Business | |
| |
| |
| The Role of Quantitative Techniques in Business | |
| |
| |
| Models in Quantitative Decision Making | |
| |
| |
| Use of Computers | |
| |
| |
| Using the Text | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: British Telecom | |
| |
| |
| |
| Tools of the Trade | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| Some Basic Terminology | |
| |
| |
| Fractions, Proportions, Percentages | |
| |
| |
| Rounding and Significant Figures | |
| |
| |
| Common Notation | |
| |
| |
| Powers and Roots | |
| |
| |
| Logarithms | |
| |
| |
| Summation and Factorials | |
| |
| |
| Equations and Mathematical Models | |
| |
| |
| Graphs | |
| |
| |
| Real and Money Terms | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Presenting Management Information | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| A Business Example | |
| |
| |
| Bar Charts | |
| |
| |
| Pie Charts | |
| |
| |
| Frequency Distributions | |
| |
| |
| Percentage and Cumulative Frequencies | |
| |
| |
| Histograms | |
| |
| |
| Frequency Polygons | |
| |
| |
| Ogives | |
| |
| |
| Lorenz Curves | |
| |
| |
| Time-series Graphs | |
| |
| |
| Z Charts | |
| |
| |
| Scatter Diagrams | |
| |
| |
| General Principles of Graphical Presentation | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: Cowie Health Centre, Scotland | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Management Statistics | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| A Business Example | |
| |
| |
| Why are Statistics Needed? | |
| |
| |
| Measures of Averages | |
| |
| |
| Measures of Variability | |
| |
| |
| Using the Statistics | |
| |
| |
| Calculating Statistics for Aggregated Data | |
| |
| |
| Index Numbers | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: Halifax plc: house price index | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Probability and Probability Distributions | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| Terminology | |
| |
| |
| The Multiplication Rule | |
| |
| |
| The Addition Rule | |
| |
| |
| A Business Application | |
| |
| |
| Probability Distributions | |
| |
| |
| The Binomial Distribution | |
| |
| |
| The Normal Distribution | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: ICI Pharmaceuticals | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Decision Making Under Uncertainty | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| The Decision Problem | |
| |
| |
| The Maximax Criterion | |
| |
| |
| The Maximin Criterion | |
| |
| |
| The Minimax Regret Criterion | |
| |
| |
| Decision Making Using Probability Information | |
| |
| |
| Risk | |
| |
| |
| Decision Trees | |
| |
| |
| The Value of Perfect Information | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: Gulf Oil | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Market Research and Statistical Inference | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| Populations and Samples | |
| |
| |
| Sampling Distributions | |
| |
| |
| The Central Limit Theorem | |
| |
| |
| Characteristics of the Sampling Distribution | |
| |
| |
| Confidence Intervals | |
| |
| |
| Other Confidence Intervals | |
| |
| |
| Confidence Intervals for Proportions | |
| |
| |
| Interpreting Confidence Intervals | |
| |
| |
| Hypothesis Tests | |
| |
| |
| Tests on a Sample Mean | |
| |
| |
| Tests on the Difference Between Two Means | |
| |
| |
| Tests on Two Proportions or Percentages | |
| |
| |
| Tests on Small Samples | |
| |
| |
| Inferential Statistics Using a Computer Package | |
| |
| |
| p Values in Hypothesis Tests | |
| |
| |
| x[superscript 2] Tests | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: Queen's College, Taunton | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Quality Control and Quality Management | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| The Importance of Quality | |
| |
| |
| Techniques in Quality Management | |
| |
| |
| Statistical Process Control | |
| |
| |
| Control Charts | |
| |
| |
| Control Charts for Attribute Variables | |
| |
| |
| Pareto Charts | |
| |
| |
| Ishikawa Diagrams | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: Hewlett-Packard | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Forecasting I: Moving Averages and Time Series | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| The Need for Forecasting | |
| |
| |
| Approaches to Forecasting | |
| |
| |
| Trend Projections | |
| |
| |
| Time-series Models | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: Retail supermarket, UK | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Forecasting II: Regression | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| The Principles of Simple Linear Regression | |
| |
| |
| The Correlation Coefficient | |
| |
| |
| The Line of Best Fit | |
| |
| |
| Using the Regression Equation | |
| |
| |
| Further Statistical Evaluation of the Regression Equation | |
| |
| |
| Non-linear Regression | |
| |
| |
| Multiple Regression | |
| |
| |
| The Forecasting Process | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: RAC | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Linear Programming | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| The Business Problem | |
| |
| |
| Formulating the Problem | |
| |
| |
| Graphical Solution to the LP Formulation | |
| |
| |
| Sensitivity Analysis | |
| |
| |
| Computer Solutions | |
| |
| |
| Assumptions of the Basic Model | |
| |
| |
| Dealing with More than Two Variables | |
| |
| |
| Extensions to the Basic LP Model | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: Blue Bell Inc. | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Stock Control | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| The Stock-control Problem | |
| |
| |
| Costs Involved in Stock Control | |
| |
| |
| The Stock-control Decision | |
| |
| |
| The Economic Order Quantity Model | |
| |
| |
| The Reorder Cycle | |
| |
| |
| Assumptions of the EOQ Model | |
| |
| |
| Incorporating Lead Time | |
| |
| |
| Classification of Stock Items | |
| |
| |
| MRP and JIT | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: Unipart | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Project Management | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| Characteristics of a Project | |
| |
| |
| Project Management | |
| |
| |
| Business Example | |
| |
| |
| Network Diagrams | |
| |
| |
| Developing the Network Diagram | |
| |
| |
| Using the Network Diagram | |
| |
| |
| Precedence Diagrams | |
| |
| |
| Gantt Charts | |
| |
| |
| Uncertainty | |
| |
| |
| Project Costs and Crashing | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: Central Regional Council, Scotland | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Simulation | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| The Principles of Simulation | |
| |
| |
| Business Example | |
| |
| |
| Developing the Simulation Model | |
| |
| |
| A Simulation Flowchart | |
| |
| |
| Using the Model | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further reading | |
| |
| |
| Useful online resources | |
| |
| |
| Application: University Hospital of Wales | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
| Financial Decision Making | |
| |
| |
| Learning objectives | |
| |
| |
| Interest | |
| |
| |
| Nominal and Effective Interest | |
| |
| |
| Present Value | |
| |
| |
| Investment Appraisal | |
| |
| |
| Replacing Equipment | |
| |
| |
| Worked Example | |
| |
| |
| Summary | |
| |
| |
| Further Reading | |
| |
| |
| Application: Tomco Oil Inc. | |
| |
| |
| Exercises | |
| |
| |
| Conclusion | |
| |
| |
| Appendices | |
| |
| |
| |
| Binomial Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
| Areas in the Tail of the Normal Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
| Areas in the Tail of the t Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
| Areas in the Tail of the x[superscript 2] Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
| Areas in the Tail of the F Fistribution, 0.05 Level | |
| |
| |
| |
| Solutions to Chapter Activities | |
| |
| |
| Index | |