| |
| |
Acknowledgments | |
| |
| |
About the Author | |
| |
| |
Introduction | |
| |
| |
| |
Getting Started | |
| |
| |
| |
The Analysis Process | |
| |
| |
Identifying Potential Candidates | |
| |
| |
Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates | |
| |
| |
Quick Prequalify | |
| |
| |
Detailed Analysis | |
| |
| |
When to Sell | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Evaluating Risk | |
| |
| |
Portfolio Risk | |
| |
| |
Risk Factors | |
| |
| |
Spotting Strong Industries in a Weak Market | |
| |
| |
Company-Specific Risks | |
| |
| |
Company-Specific Risks Described in Subsequent Chapters | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Screening | |
| |
| |
Morningstar | |
| |
| |
Google | |
| |
| |
Zacks | |
| |
| |
Portfoliol23 | |
| |
| |
Google Growth Screen | |
| |
| |
Zacks Growth/Momentum Screen | |
| |
| |
Portfolio 123 Down & Out Value Stock Finder | |
| |
| |
Portfolio 123 Growth Stock Screen | |
| |
| |
Zacks' Bulletproof Stocks | |
| |
| |
The Zen of Screening | |
| |
| |
Premade Screens | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tools | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #1: Analyze Analysts' Data | |
| |
| |
Who are the Analysts? | |
| |
| |
Analysts' Ratings | |
| |
| |
"Sell" is a Four-Letter Word | |
| |
| |
Consensus Ratings | |
| |
| |
Do Strong Buys Outperform Sells? | |
| |
| |
Number of Analysts | |
| |
| |
Sentiment Index | |
| |
| |
Analysts' Estimates | |
| |
| |
Earnings Surprise | |
| |
| |
Sales Forecasts | |
| |
| |
Guidance Changes | |
| |
| |
Research Reports | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #2: Valuation | |
| |
| |
Implied Growth | |
| |
| |
Growth at a Reasonable Price | |
| |
| |
Dividends | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #3: Establish Target Prices | |
| |
| |
The Process | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool. #4: Industry Analysis | |
| |
| |
The Business | |
| |
| |
Industiy Growth Outlook | |
| |
| |
Analysts' Forecasts are Good Enough | |
| |
| |
Convert Earnings Growth to Sales Growth | |
| |
| |
Industry Concentration | |
| |
| |
Picking Winners in an Emerging Fragmented Industry | |
| |
| |
Industry Scuttlebutt | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #5: Business Plan Analysis | |
| |
| |
Introduction | |
| |
| |
Overblown Competitive Advantages: Factors That Should Make a Difference but Often Don't | |
| |
| |
Business Plan Scorecard | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #6: Evaluate Management Quality | |
| |
| |
Key Executive and Board Quality | |
| |
| |
Clean Accounting | |
| |
| |
Earnings Growth Stability | |
| |
| |
Stock Ownership | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #7: Analyze Financial Fitness | |
| |
| |
Financial Fitness Counts | |
| |
| |
Pinpointing Financially Challenged Companies | |
| |
| |
Simplify the Problem | |
| |
| |
Detecting Potential Busted Cash Burners | |
| |
| |
Detailed Fiscal Fitness Exam | |
| |
| |
Bond Ratings | |
| |
| |
Use Bond Prices to Identify Risky Debtors | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #8: Profitability and Growth Analysis | |
| |
| |
Where Do Earnings Come From? | |
| |
| |
Analyzing Sales (Revenue) History | |
| |
| |
Analyzing Margins | |
| |
| |
Comparing Margins | |
| |
| |
High Versus Low Margins | |
| |
| |
Analyzing Overhead Expenses | |
| |
| |
Profitability Ratios | |
| |
| |
Cash Flow Analysis | |
| |
| |
EBITDA Versus Operating Cash Flow | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #9: Detect Red Flags | |
| |
| |
Sales Growth Trends | |
| |
| |
Accounts Receivables and Inventories | |
| |
| |
Statement of Cash Flows | |
| |
| |
Yellow Flags | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #10: Ownership Considerations | |
| |
| |
Institutional Ownership | |
| |
| |
Insider Ownership | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Tool #11: Price Charts | |
| |
| |
Trends | |
| |
| |
Moving Averages | |
| |
| |
Value Investors | |
| |
| |
Growth Investors | |
| |
| |
Avoid Downtrends | |
| |
| |
Compare Short- and Long-Term Moving Averages | |
| |
| |
The Risk Zone | |
| |
| |
Chart Types | |
| |
| |
Trading Volume | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
The Analysis Process | |
| |
| |
| |
Quick Prequalify | |
| |
| |
Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates | |
| |
| |
Company Overview | |
| |
| |
Valuation Ratios | |
| |
| |
Real Revenues + Real Earnings + Real Growth = Real Stock | |
| |
| |
Check the Buzz | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
The Value Investing Process | |
| |
| |
Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates | |
| |
| |
Cycles | |
| |
| |
Normalizing | |
| |
| |
The Valie Analysis Process | |
| |
| |
When to Sell | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
The Growth Investing Process | |
| |
| |
Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates | |
| |
| |
Growth Candidates | |
| |
| |
The Process | |
| |
| |
When to Sell | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis Scorecards | |
| |
| |
Value Stock Analysis Scorecard | |
| |
| |
Growth Stock Analysis Scorecard | |
| |
| |
| |
Appendixes | |
| |
| |
| |
Industry Information | |
| |
| |
| |
Economic Data | |
| |
| |
| |
Earnings Reports and Conference Calls | |
| |
| |
Reported Earnings | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
Detecting Scams, Frauds, and Pump and Dump | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
| |
How to Read Financial Statements | |
| |
| |
Income Statement | |
| |
| |
Balance Sheet | |
| |
| |
Statement of Cash Flows | |
| |
| |
Finding the Data | |
| |
| |
Pro Forma Accounting Versus GAAP | |
| |
| |
| |
Glossary | |
| |
| |
Index | |