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| Contributing authors | |
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| Foreword: on a manuscript of 1984 | |
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| Research support, and more | |
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| National and Regional Models | |
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| Multiple Levels, Damages, Forms, Moments and Variables in Road Accident Models | |
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| Introduction: the [double left angle bracket]Modelling Quartet[double right angle bracket] in this book | |
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| Problem Formulation | |
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| A multilevel structure; a multidamage application | |
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| Perspectives on problem structure | |
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| The quantification of effects | |
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| From fixed to flexible mathematical form | |
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| From monotonic to multitonic forms: the case of alcohol | |
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| Variables: multimoment, multivariate | |
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| The dependent variable: from observations to moments | |
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| The explanatory variables: not a triad, but a quatrain | |
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| Is pregnancy a risk factor? | |
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| Other modelling dimensions of interest | |
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| Multidata | |
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| Multiple documentation of reference results | |
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| Conclusion: matching tools to questions | |
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| Post Scriptum: model acronyms | |
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| References | |
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| The Drag-2 Model for Quebec | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The structure of the DRAG-2 model | |
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| A diagram of the model structure | |
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| Dependent variable graphs | |
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| The matrix of direct effects of independent variables over dependent variables | |
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| REsults on mathematical form and particular variables | |
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| Econometric results | |
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| Results on elasticity | |
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| Other results: forecasts for the period of 1997-2004 | |
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| Other developments | |
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| The SNUS-2.5 Model for Germany | |
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| Context | |
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| Structure of model | |
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| The dependent variables | |
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| Visual analysis of the dependent variables | |
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| Matrix of direct effects | |
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| Results and their interpretation | |
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| Statistical results | |
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| Economic results: overall specific results | |
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| Decomposition of the impact by variable: results common to other models | |
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| Results for other variables | |
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| Deriving other interesting results | |
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| The analysis of victims: direct, indirect and total elasticities | |
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| Multiple moments and their marginal rates of substitution | |
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| Marginal rates of substitution with comparable accident data | |
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| Marginal rates of substitution with disaggregated accident data | |
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| Policy implications | |
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| Higher prices save energy and lives | |
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| Risk substitution in terms of first moments | |
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| References | |
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| The TRULS--1 Model for Norway | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Structure of the Model Truls-1 | |
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| Dependent variables: definitions and relations | |
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| Visual analysis of dependent variables | |
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| Matrix of direct effects | |
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| The casualty subset test | |
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| Results on form and selected explanatory variables | |
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| References | |
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| The DRAG-Stockholm-2 Model | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The Dennis agreement | |
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| The MAD-project | |
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| The concept of zero fatality | |
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| Structure of the DRAG model for Stockholm county | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Dependent variables: definitions and relations | |
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| Visual analysis of dependent variables | |
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| Matrix of direct effects | |
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| Model form and explanatory variables | |
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| Summary of econometric results | |
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| The demand for road use | |
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| Comparison between estimated and actual demand for road use | |
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| The contribution of road infrastructure to road traffic growth | |
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| The Road accident frequency and gravity models | |
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| Economic activities | |
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| Quality of vehicle fleet | |
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| Road network data | |
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| Weather data | |
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| Intervention measures | |
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| Gasoline price | |
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| The DRAG-Stockholm-2 model | |
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| The new model specification | |
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| Comparison of results between the "old" and "new" specification | |
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| Comparison of actual and estimated accident risks | |
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| Specific results on the Drag-Stockholm model | |
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| Points of interest and conclusion | |
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| Alcohol consumption: the J-shaped relationship | |
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| Medicine consumption | |
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| Pregnancy--a new risk factor | |
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| Conclusions | |
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| References | |
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| The TAG-1 Model for France | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Structuring the TAG model | |
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| Econometric form of the TAG model | |
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| The estimates produced by the TAG model | |
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| Model of road transport demand | |
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| Constructing a model of average speed | |
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| Analysis of the results by risk indicator | |
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| Analysis of results by explanatory factor | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| References | |
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| The TRACS-CA Model for California | |
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| Introduction | |
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| TRACS-CA model structure | |
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| Exposure and crash losses | |
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| Historical trends | |
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| Determining variables included in the TRACS-CA structure | |
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| Estimation results | |
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| Statistical summary | |
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| Common variable results | |
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| Specific variable results | |
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| Further results | |
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| Discussion and future directions | |
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| References | |
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| Comparing Six Drag-Type Models | |
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| Risk exposure | |
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| Driver behaviour | |
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| Speed | |
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| Seatbelt wearing | |
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| Consumption of alcohol | |
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| Consumption of medicines | |
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| Economic variables | |
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| Households' economic and financial situation | |
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| Fuel prices | |
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| Competing supply from public transport | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| References | |
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| Other Models and Issues | |
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| The Road, Risk, Uncertainty and Speed | |
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| Risk, uncertainty and observed road accident outcomes | |
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| Model structure: simultaneity and perceived risk | |
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| Selected results: accident frequency and severity | |
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| Selected results: speed | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| References | |
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| The Res Model by Road Type in France | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Structure of the model | |
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| General outline | |
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| The data base | |
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| Economic formulation | |
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| Econometric specification | |
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| Algorithm | |
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| The Results | |
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| Tests of functional form | |
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| Measuring elasticities | |
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| Short and medium term simulations | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| References | |
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| Postface and Perspectives | |
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| Relevance of models for understanding the influence of risk factors | |
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| Outlook for research in constructing risk models | |
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| Data extraction | |
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| Adding levels to the structure | |
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| Breakdown of indicators by user and road types | |
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| Disaggregation by location or vehicle x driver | |
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| Relevance of the models for managing road safety | |
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| References | |
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| Algorithms and Detailed Model Outputs | |
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| The Trio Level-1.5 Algorithm for Bc-Gauheseq Regression | |
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| Introduction and statistical model | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Log-likelihood function | |
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| Computational aspects | |
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| Model types | |
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| Model estimation | |
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| Estimation results | |
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| Definitions of moments of the dependent variable | |
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| Derivatives and elasticities of the sample and expected values of the dependent variable | |
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| Derivatives and elasticities of the standard error of the dependent variable | |
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| Derivativies and elasticities of the skewness of the dependent variable | |
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| Ratios of derivatives of the moments of the dependent variable | |
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| Evaluation of moments, their derivatives, rates of substitution and elasticities | |
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| Student's t-statistics | |
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| Goodness-of-fit measures | |
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| Special options | |
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| Correlation matrix and table of variance-decomposition proportions | |
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| Analysis of heteroskedasticity of the residuals | |
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| Analysis of autocorrelation of the residuals | |
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| Forecasting: maximum likelihood and simulation forecasts | |
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| References | |
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| The Irposkml Procedure of Estimation | |
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| Accident frequency model specification | |
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| Severity model specification | |
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| References | |
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| Turning Box-Cox Including Quadratic forms in Regression | |
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| Model with two Box-Cox transformations on a same independent variable | |
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| Solution | |
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| First-order conditions | |
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| Second-order conditions | |
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| Special case: quadratic form | |
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| Model with powers [lamda subscript 1] and [lamda subscript 2] only on a same independent variable | |
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| First-order conditions | |
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| Second-order conditions | |
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| Special case: quadratic form | |
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| Two-step transformations on a same independent variable | |
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| References | |
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| Appendix 1. Detailed Model Outputs | |
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