Environmental Risk Analysis

ISBN-10: 0071372660

ISBN-13: 9780071372664

Edition: 2001

Authors: Ian Lerche, Evan K. Paleologos

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Book details

List price: $94.00
Copyright year: 2001
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing
Publication date: 3/16/2001
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 421
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.00" long x 1.25" tall
Weight: 1.694
Language: English

Prefacep. xiii
Introduction to Environmental Problems: Transport, Burial, Monitoring, Spillage, Leakage, and Cleanupp. 1
Transport Problemsp. 6
Burial/Storage Problemsp. 6
Monitoring Problemsp. 7
Spillage Problemsp. 8
Leakage Problemsp. 8
Summaryp. 9
Contracts and Decisionsp. 11
General Developmentp. 11
Parameter Uncertaintiesp. 13
Numerical Examplep. 16
Discussionp. 17
Some Properties of a Log-Normal Distributionp. 18
Exact Statementsp. 18
Approximate Statementsp. 20
Multiple-Parameter Distributionsp. 21
Transport and Burial Hazards of Radioactive Wastep. 23
Introductionp. 23
Risk and Catastrophe in the Transport of Radioactive Wastep. 24
Statistical Measuresp. 25
Analysis of Alternate Actions: Limited Spillp. 28
Analysis of Alternate Actions: Catastrophic Spillp. 31
Parameter Uncertainty Effectsp. 33
Means and Variancesp. 34
Relative Importancep. 35
Relative Contribution of Uncertain Parameters in Subsurface Hydrologyp. 36
Introductionp. 37
Physical Problemp. 37
Theoretical Frameworkp. 40
Results and Discussionp. 42
Summaryp. 43
Approximations for Cumulative Probabilityp. 45
Utility Theory and Working-Interest Optimization in a Hazardous Waste Transport and Burial Opportunityp. 47
Introductionp. 47
Working-Interest Evaluationp. 48
Exponential Utility Functionp. 50
Parabolic Utility Functionp. 53
Applicationsp. 54
Summaryp. 59
Limiting Expressions for Certainty Equivalentp. 59
Parabolic Approximation to Exponential Utilityp. 62
Catastrophic Events, Insurance, and Unilateral Regulatory Changesp. 65
Introductionp. 65
Catastrophic Loss in Exploration Assessmentsp. 67
Catastrophic Loss after Oil Is Foundp. 71
Insurance for Hydrocarbon Exploration and Development Risksp. 73
General Catastrophic Loss Conditionsp. 74
Mathematical Considerationsp. 74
Numerical Illustrationp. 78
Insurance Coverage After Oil is Foundp. 79
General Considerationsp. 79
Numerical Illustrationp. 81
Insurance against Catastrophic Loss for Environmental Projectsp. 82
Optioning against Potential Regulatory Changesp. 85
Risk Retentionp. 86
Evaluation of Risk Reserve Fundp. 88
Projects Awarded at One Time Exposed to Liability Lp. 88
Projects Awarded at Different Times Exposed to Liability Lp. 90
Projects of Variable Magnitude Awarded at Different Times and Exposed to Liability Lp. 93
Numerical Illustrationsp. 95
Summaryp. 97
Limiting Risk Using Fractional Working Interestp. 99
Introductionp. 99
General Methodsp. 100
Cozzolino's Formulap. 101
Hyperbolic Risk Aversionp. 104
Numerical Illustrationp. 105
Results from Cozzolino's Formulap. 106
Results from the Hyperbolic Formulap. 110
Comparison of Resultsp. 110
Negative Expected Valuep. 113
Summaryp. 114
Limiting Risk Within a Consortium and Foreign Government Projectsp. 117
Introductionp. 117
RAV Estimates with Uncertaintiesp. 118
General Considerationsp. 118
Numerical Illustrationsp. 119
Evaluation of Participation in a Consortium of Companiesp. 128
Evaluation of Participation in Foreign Government Projectsp. 132
Summaryp. 136
Corporate Involvement in Multiple Environmental Projectsp. 139
Introductionp. 139
Deterministic Portfolio Balancingp. 140
Relative Importancep. 140
Profitabilityp. 140
Costsp. 141
Budget Constraintsp. 142
High Budgetp. 142
Low Budgetp. 142
Finding the Best Working Interestsp. 142
The Parabolic RAV Formulap. 144
The Exponential RAV Formulap. 146
Deterministic Numerical Illustrationsp. 148
A Budget of $20 Millionp. 149
A Budget of $11 Millionp. 149
A Budget of $4 Millionp. 150
Probabilistic Portfolio Balancingp. 150
Probabilistic Numerical Illustrationsp. 151
Variable Valuep. 151
Variable Value and Costp. 154
Variable Value, Cost, and Success Probabilityp. 155
Very Low Budgetp. 155
Low to High Budget Comparisonp. 157
Comparison of Parabolic and Exponential RAVp. 161
Deterministic Resultsp. 161
Statistical Resultsp. 162
Transport and Burial of Wastesp. 164
Multiple Projectsp. 169
Exposure and Expenditure Constraintsp. 171
Corporate Exposurep. 171
Cost Expenditurep. 172
Optimal Working Interestp. 172
Parabolic Utility Functionp. 175
Applicationp. 171
Summaryp. 178
Weighted RAV Optimizationp. 180
Apportionment of Cost Overruns to Hazardous Waste Projectsp. 183
Introductionp. 183
Project Costs and Cost Overrunsp. 184
Numerical Illustrationsp. 186
Identical Projectsp. 186
Unequal Projectsp. 187
Arbitrary Numbers of Projectsp. 188
Summaryp. 190
Bayesian Updating of Toxic Leakage Scenariosp. 193
Introductionp. 193
Theoretical Considerationsp. 193
General Concepts of Bayesian Updatingp. 194
Numerical Illustrationp. 196
Updating the Likelihood of a State Being Correctp. 196
Updating the Probability of Leakagep. 197
Bayesian Decision Criteriap. 199
Optimal Expected Value Bayes Decisionp. 199
Expected Opportunity Lossp. 203
Influence of the Length of the Observation Record on Decision Makingp. 205
Influence of the Form of the Loss Function on Decision Makingp. 206
Summaryp. 210
Multiple Transport of Hazardous Material: Probabilities of Profitabilityp. 211
Introductionp. 211
Statistical Measures for Individual Transport Tripsp. 211
Statistics for a Single Eventp. 212
Statistics for Multiple Eventsp. 214
Bayesian Updating of Probabilitiesp. 215
Residual Trips and Probability Updatingp. 217
Budget Buyout Considerationsp. 217
Numerical Illustrationsp. 218
Multiple Transport before a Catastrophe Occursp. 218
Ship Disaster and Probability Updatingp. 219
Buyout Price and Minimum Acceptable Chancep. 219
Summaryp. 220
Maximizing Profit for a Toxic Waste Site Monitoring Systemp. 223
Introductionp. 223
Scientific Considerationsp. 224
Financial Considerationsp. 225
Numerical Illustrationp. 228
Summaryp. 229
Option Payments for Future Informationp. 231
Introductionp. 231
Maximum Option Paymentsp. 232
Mean Value Assessment of Option Costsp. 234
Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costsp. 235
Numerical Illustrationsp. 236
Mean Value Assessment of Option Costsp. 237
Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costsp. 237
Summaryp. 238
The Worth of Resolving Uncertainty for Environmental Projectsp. 241
Introductionp. 241
Representation of Risk and Uncertaintyp. 244
Application to the Question: Is Value Added?p. 247
Summaryp. 249
Scientific Uncertainty in Environmental Problems: Models and Datap. 251
Introductionp. 252
Continuous Measurements of Hydraulic Headp. 253
Weighting Factorsp. 253
Parameter Determinationp. 255
Illustrative Examplep. 255
Spatial Changes and Partitionsp. 260
Discrete Measurements of Hydraulic Headp. 261
Stochastic Determinationsp. 262
General Considerationsp. 262
Parameter Determinationp. 263
Weighting Factorsp. 265
Numerical Illustationp. 266
Averaging Measures for Hydrodynamic Problemsp. 268
Specific Hydrodynamic Flow Modelp. 269
Discussionp. 274
Summaryp. 275
General Development of Procedures for N Modelsp. 276
Continuous, Perfect Measurementsp. 276
Discrete, Perfect Datap. 277
Stochastic Measurementsp. 278
Individual Parameter Determination Procedurep. 281
Measures of Model and Observational Mismatchp. 283
Human, Water, Chemical, Biological and Radiocative Risksp. 287
Introductionp. 288
Natural Environmental Problemsp. 288
Anthropogenic Environmental Problemsp. 289
Examples of Anthropogenic Environmental Problemsp. 290
Resources and Environmental Issuesp. 297
Remediation of Environmental Problemsp. 300
Rules for Addressing Environmental Problemsp. 301
Epiloguep. 303
Phase I, II, and III Site Assessmentsp. 305
Brief Overview of the Federal Statutes of the United Statesp. 379
Referencesp. 423
Indexp. 431
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