| |
| |
Tables, Figures, and Boxes | |
| |
| |
Preface | |
| |
| |
Statistics Roadmap | |
| |
| |
| |
Introduction | |
| |
| |
| |
Why Statistics for Public Managers and Analysts? | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Role of Data in Public Management | |
| |
| |
Competency and Proficiency | |
| |
| |
Ethics in Data Analysis and Research | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Research Methods | |
| |
| |
| |
Research Design | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Introducing Variables and Their Relationships | |
| |
| |
Program Evaluation | |
| |
| |
Six Steps | |
| |
| |
Rival Hypotheses and Limitations of Experimental Study Designs | |
| |
| |
Quasi-Experimental Designs in Program Evaluation | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Conceptualization and Measurement | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Measurement Levels and Scales | |
| |
| |
Conceptualization | |
| |
| |
Operationalization | |
| |
| |
Index Variables | |
| |
| |
Measurement Validity | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Measuring and Managing Performance: Present and Future | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Performance Measurement | |
| |
| |
The Logic Model | |
| |
| |
Further Examples | |
| |
| |
Efficiency, Effectiveness, and a Bit More | |
| |
| |
Managing Performance | |
| |
| |
Peering into the Future: Forecasting | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Data Collection | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Sources of Data | |
| |
| |
Administrative Data | |
| |
| |
Secondary Data | |
| |
| |
Surveys | |
| |
| |
Other Sources | |
| |
| |
Sampling | |
| |
| |
When Is a Sample Needed? | |
| |
| |
How Should Samples Be Selected? | |
| |
| |
How Large Should the Sample Be? | |
| |
| |
Data Input | |
| |
| |
Putting It Together | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Descriptive Statistics | |
| |
| |
| |
Central Tendency | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
The Mean | |
| |
| |
The Median | |
| |
| |
The Mode | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
Appendix 6.1: Using Grouped Data | |
| |
| |
| |
Measures of Dispersion | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Frequency Distributions | |
| |
| |
Standard Deviation | |
| |
| |
Definition | |
| |
| |
Some Applications of Standard Deviation | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
Appendix 7.1: Boxplots | |
| |
| |
| |
Contingency Tables | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Contingency Tables | |
| |
| |
Relationship and Direction | |
| |
| |
Pivot Tables | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Getting Results | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Analysis of Outputs and Outcomes | |
| |
| |
Analysis of Efficiency and Effectiveness | |
| |
| |
Analysis of Equity | |
| |
| |
Quality-of-Life Analysis | |
| |
| |
Some Cautions in Analysis and Presentation | |
| |
| |
The Use of Multiple Measures | |
| |
| |
Treatment of Missing Values | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Inferential Statistics | |
| |
| |
| |
Hypothesis Testing with Chi-Square | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
What Is Chi-Square? | |
| |
| |
Hypothesis Testing | |
| |
| |
The Null Hypothesis | |
| |
| |
Statistical Significance | |
| |
| |
The Five Steps of Hypothesis Testing | |
| |
| |
Chi-Square Test Assumptions | |
| |
| |
Statistical Significance and Sample Size | |
| |
| |
A Nonparametric Alternative | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
Appendix 10.1: Rival Hypotheses: Adding a Control Variable | |
| |
| |
| |
Measures of Association | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Three New Concepts | |
| |
| |
PRE: The Strength of Relationships | |
| |
| |
Paired Cases: The Direction of Relationships | |
| |
| |
Dependent Samples | |
| |
| |
PRE Alternatives to Chi-Square | |
| |
| |
Beating the Standard? The Goodness-of-Fit Test | |
| |
| |
Discrimination and Other Tests | |
| |
| |
Do the Evaluators Agree? | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
The T-Test | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
T-Tests for Independent Samples | |
| |
| |
T-Test Assumptions | |
| |
| |
Working Example 1 | |
| |
| |
Working Example 2 | |
| |
| |
Two T-Test Variations | |
| |
| |
Paired-Samples T-Test | |
| |
| |
One-Sample T-Test | |
| |
| |
Nonparametric Alternatives to T-Tests | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Analysis of Variance | |
| |
| |
ANOVA Assumptions | |
| |
| |
A Working Example | |
| |
| |
Beyond One-Way ANOVA | |
| |
| |
A Nonparametric Alternative | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Simple Regression | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Simple Regression | |
| |
| |
Scatterplot | |
| |
| |
Test of Significance | |
| |
| |
Assumptions and Notation | |
| |
| |
Pearson's Correlation Coefficient | |
| |
| |
Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Multiple Regression | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Model Specification | |
| |
| |
A Working Example | |
| |
| |
Further Statistics | |
| |
| |
Goodness of Fit for Multiple Regression | |
| |
| |
Standardized Coefficients | |
| |
| |
F-Test | |
| |
| |
Use of Nominal variables | |
| |
| |
Testing Assumptions | |
| |
| |
Outliers | |
| |
| |
Multicollinearity | |
| |
| |
Linearity | |
| |
| |
Heteroscedasticity | |
| |
| |
Autocorrelation | |
| |
| |
Measurement and Specification | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Further Statistics | |
| |
| |
| |
Logistic Regression | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
The Logistic Model | |
| |
| |
A Working Example | |
| |
| |
Calculating Event Probabilities | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Time Series Analysis | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Time Series Data in Multiple Regression | |
| |
| |
Autocorrelation | |
| |
| |
Correcting Autocorrelation | |
| |
| |
Policy Evaluation | |
| |
| |
Lagged Variables | |
| |
| |
Statistical Forecasting Methods: A Primer | |
| |
| |
Regression-Based Forecasting | |
| |
| |
Forecasting with Leading Indicators | |
| |
| |
Curve Estimation | |
| |
| |
Exponential Smoothing | |
| |
| |
ARIMA | |
| |
| |
Non-Regression-Based Forecasting with Few Observations | |
| |
| |
Forecasting with Periodic Effects | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
| |
Survey of Other Techniques | |
| |
| |
Chapter Objectives | |
| |
| |
Path Analysis | |
| |
| |
Beyond Path Analysis | |
| |
| |
Survival Analysis | |
| |
| |
Beyond Life Tables | |
| |
| |
Factor Analysis | |
| |
| |
Beyond Factor Analysis | |
| |
| |
Summary | |
| |
| |
Key Terms | |
| |
| |
Appendix: Statistical Tables | |
| |
| |
| |
Normal Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
Chi-Square Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
T-Test Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
Durbin-Watson Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
F-Test Distribution | |
| |
| |
Glossary | |
| |
| |
Index | |