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Foreword | |
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Acknowledgments | |
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Introduction | |
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Understanding Deadly Conflict | |
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Global Conflict in the Twenty-First Century | |
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Trends | |
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Costs of Conflict | |
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Perils of Prediction | |
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Conflict Analysis and Adaptive Leadership | |
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Causes of Conflict and Peace | |
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The Curve of Conflict | |
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The Strategic Dimension | |
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The Political Dimension | |
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The Socioeconomic Dimension | |
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The Psychological Dimension | |
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The Cultural Dimension | |
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Violence as a Strategic Choice | |
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Risk Assessment and Early Warning | |
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Early Warning Watchlists | |
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Conflict Metrics Instruments | |
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Environmental Degradation and Climate Change | |
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Genocide and Mass Atrocities | |
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Early Warning at the Local Level | |
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Tools for the Trade | |
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Conflict Assessment Frameworks | |
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Self-Assessment | |
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Gathering Information | |
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Four-Step Assessment Process | |
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Transition to Planning | |
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Narrative Analysis | |
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Listening as a Peacebuilding Technique | |
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Who: Leaders and Constituents | |
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What and Why: Positions Versus Interests and Needs | |
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When: Mythic Histories | |
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Where: Territorial Narratives | |
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How: Strategy and Tactics | |
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Conflict Mapping and Systems Mapping | |
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Conflict Mapping | |
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Systems Mapping | |
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Scenario Analysis | |
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Scenario-Building Techniques | |
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Scenario Analysis in Conflict Management | |
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Visualizing Scenarios | |
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Selecting and Tracking Indicators | |
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Linking Vision to Action | |
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From Analysis to Action | |
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Navigating Cognitive Minefields | |
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Groupthink | |
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Black Swans | |
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Psychic Numbing | |
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Conflict Analysis in the Planning Process | |
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Framing the Problem | |
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Defining Objectives | |
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Situation Analysis | |
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Designing a Plan of Action | |
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Measuring Progress and Adapting to Change | |
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Conclusion: The Value of Collaborative Conflict Analysis | |
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Appendices | |
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Estimating Mortality from Violent Conflict | |
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Early Warning Watchlists and Reports | |
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Conflict Metrics | |
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Private Strategic Forecasters | |
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Conflict Assessment Frameworks | |
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U.S. Institute of Peace Narrative Analysis Framework | |
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Conflict Mapping Tools | |
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Template for a Logical Framework Matrix (Logframe) | |
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Glossary | |
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Resources | |
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Index | |