Risk Analysis in Engineering Techniques, Tools, and Trends

ISBN-10: 1574447947

ISBN-13: 9781574447941

Edition: 2006

List price: $167.95
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Based on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the part of the student and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization.The book begins with a description of the basic definitions and principles of risk, safety, and performance and presents the elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering. After highlighting the methods for performing PRAs, the author describes how to assess and measure performance of the building blocks of PRAs, such as reliability of hardware subsystems, structures, components, human actions, and software. He covers methods of characterizing uncertainties and methods for propagating them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the results. The book explores how to identify and rank important and sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and performance assessment models. It also includes a description of risk acceptance criteria and the formal methods for making decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The book concludes with a brief review of the main aspects, issues, and methods of risk communication.Drawing on notes, homework problems, and exams from courses he has taught as well as feedback from his students, Professor Modarres provides a from-the-trenches method for teaching risk assessment for engineers. This is a textbook that is easy to use for students and professors alike.
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Book details

List price: $167.95
Copyright year: 2006
Publisher: CRC Press LLC
Publication date: 1/13/2006
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 424
Size: 7.25" wide x 10.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 2.266
Language: English

Introduction and Basic Definitions
Importance of Risk Analysis
Complexity and Characteristics of Engineering Systems and their Models
Demand for Risk Analysis
Emergence of Formal Risk Analysis for Managing and Regulating Risks
Categories of Risk
Trends in the Use of Risk Analysis Methods in Engineering
Elements and Types of Risk Analysis
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Qualitative Risk Analysis
Mixed Qualitative-Quantitative Analysis
Risk Assessment
Identification of Hazards
Identification of System Barriers
Identification of Challenges to Barriers
Estimation of Frequency or Probability of a Hazard Exposure
Consequences Evaluation
Risk Management
Risk Communication
The Nature of the Risk
The Nature of the Benefits
Uncertainties in Risk Assessment
Risk Management Options
Elements of Risk Assessment
Types of Risk Assessment
Risk, Hazard, Performance, and Engineering Risk Assessment
Risk and Hazard
Engineering Risk Assessment
Performance and Performance Assessment
Elements of a Formal Risk Assessment
Qualitative Risk Assessment
Quantitative Risk Assessment
Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Steps in Conducting a PRA
Objectives and Methodology Definition
Familiarization and Information Assembly
Identification of Initiating Events
Sequence or Scenario Development
Logic Modeling
Failure Data Collection, Analysis, and Performance Assessment
Quantification and Integration
Uncertainty Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Risk Ranking and Importance Analysis
Interpretation of Results
Strength of PRA
Scenario and Logic Modeling, Development, and Quantification
Fault Tree Method
Evaluation of Logic Trees
Event Trees Method
Master Logic Diagram
Modeling of Dependent Failures in Risk Assessment
Multiple Greek Letter Model
[alpha]-Factor Model
Binomial Failure Rate Model
Assessment of Parameters of CCF Models
A Simple Example of PRA
Performance Assessment: Data and Modeling
Active Hardware Performance Assessment
Basic Random Processes Used in PRA
Homogeneous Poisson Process
Renewal Process
Analysis of Less than Perfect Repair: Generalized Renewal Process
Statistical Data Analysis for Hardware Items
Parameter Estimation for the HPP Using Complete Data
Parameter Estimation for NHPP Using Complete Data
Availability as a Measure of Performance for Repairable Hardware Items
Instantaneous (Point) Availability
Limiting Point Availability
Average Availability
Classical Parameter Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware
Estimation of Parameters of Exponential Distribution Model (Based on Complete Data)
Estimation of Parameters of Lognormal Distribution Model (Based on Complete Data)
Estimation of Parameters of Weibull Distribution Model (Based on Complete and Censored Data)
Estimation of Parameters of Binomial Distribution Model
Estimation of Parameters of Exponential, Lognormal, and Weibull Models when Dealing with Incomplete (Censored) Data
Bayesian Parameters Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware
Bayesian Estimation of the Parameter of Exponential Distribution Model
Bayesian Estimation of the Parameter of Binomial Distribution Model
A Comparison of Classical Parameter Estimation and Bayesian Parameter Estimation Methods: Advantages and Disadvantages
Performance of Passive and Some Active Hazard Barriers Through Physics and Engineering of Failure Modeling
Stress-Strength Models
Damage-Endurance Models
Software Performance Assessment
Software Reliability Models
Human Reliability Analysis
Human Reliability Analysis Process
Human Reliability Analysis Models
Human Reliability Data
Expert Opinion in Risk Assessment and Performance Assessment
Geometric Averaging Technique
Bayesian Approach
Statistical Evidence on the Accuracy of Expert Estimates
Uncertainty Analysis
Types of Uncertainty
Model Uncertainty
Parameter Uncertainty
Measures of Uncertainty
Uncertainty Propagation Methods
Method of Moments
Probabilistic Methods (Monte Carlo Methods)
The Response Surface Method
Comparison of Uncertainty Propagation Methods
Monte Carlo Method
Differential Analysis (Method of Moments)
Response surface methodology
Graphic Representation of Uncertainty
Identifying, Ranking, and Predicting Contributors to Risk
Importance Ranking in Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Risk Reduction Worth (RRW)
Risk Achievement Worth (RAW)
Differential Importance Measure (DIM)
Importance Measures in Success Space
A Comprehensive Example of Importance Measure Application
Importance Measures in Failure and Success Domains
Consideration of Uncertainties in Importance Measures used for Risk-Based Ranking
Ranking Order Uncertainty
Uncertainty Associated with the Importance Measures
Illustrative Example
Relative Ranking Based on Uncertain Importance Measures
Absolute Ranking Based on Uncertain Importance Measures
Uncertainty Importance Measures
Precursor Analysis
Basic Methodology
Categorization and Selection of Precursor Events
Properties of Precursor Estimator for the Occurrence Rate of Hazard Exposure Events and their Interpretation
Applications of Precursor Analysis
Differences between Precursor Analysis and Probabilistic Risk Assessments
Representation of Risk Values and Risk Acceptance Criteria
Representation of Risk Results
Health and Safety Risk Acceptance Criteria
Individual Risk Acceptance Criteria
Societal Risk Acceptance Criteria (Exposure, Consequence, Precursor)
Economic Risk and Performance Acceptance Criteria
Other Risk Acceptance Criteria in Form of Figures of Merit
Acceptable Risk Levels Based on Changes in Figures of Merit
Using Figures of Merit in Single Event Risk
Instantaneous Absolute Value Limits
Risk Acceptance Based on Importance Measures
Risk Acceptance Based on Value of Human Life
Decision Making Techniques Using Risk Information
Economic Methods in Risk Analysis
Benefit-Cost Analysis
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Risk-Effectiveness Analysis
Noneconomic Techniques
Probability of Exceedance Method
Structured Value Analysis
Analytical Hierarchy Process
Decision Tree Analysis
Risk Communication
Forms of Communication
Some Basic Rules of Risk Communication
Elements of Effective Risk Communication
Characteristics of an Effective Risk Communication
Risk Perception
Basic Reliability Mathematics: Review of Probability and Statistics
Elements of Probability
Sets and Boolean Algebra
Basic Laws of Probability
Bayes' Theorem
Probability Distributions
Random Variable
Some Basic Discrete Distributions
Some Basic Continuous Distributions
Joint and Marginal Distributions
Basic Characteristics of Random Variables
Estimation and Hypothesis Testing
Point Estimation
Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing
Frequency Tables and Histograms
Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Chi-Square Test
Kolmogorov Test
Regression Analysis
Simple Linear Regression
Appendix B
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