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| Introduction and Basic Definitions | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Importance of Risk Analysis | |
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| Complexity and Characteristics of Engineering Systems and their Models | |
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| Demand for Risk Analysis | |
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| Emergence of Formal Risk Analysis for Managing and Regulating Risks | |
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| Categories of Risk | |
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| Trends in the Use of Risk Analysis Methods in Engineering | |
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| Elements and Types of Risk Analysis | |
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| Quantitative Risk Analysis | |
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| Qualitative Risk Analysis | |
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| Mixed Qualitative-Quantitative Analysis | |
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| Risk Assessment | |
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| Identification of Hazards | |
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| Identification of System Barriers | |
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| Identification of Challenges to Barriers | |
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| Estimation of Frequency or Probability of a Hazard Exposure | |
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| Consequences Evaluation | |
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| Risk Management | |
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| Risk Communication | |
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| The Nature of the Risk | |
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| The Nature of the Benefits | |
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| Uncertainties in Risk Assessment | |
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| Risk Management Options | |
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| References | |
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| Elements of Risk Assessment | |
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| Types of Risk Assessment | |
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| Risk, Hazard, Performance, and Engineering Risk Assessment | |
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| Risk and Hazard | |
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| Engineering Risk Assessment | |
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| Performance and Performance Assessment | |
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| Elements of a Formal Risk Assessment | |
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| Qualitative Risk Assessment | |
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| Quantitative Risk Assessment | |
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| References | |
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| Probabilistic Risk Assessment | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Steps in Conducting a PRA | |
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| Objectives and Methodology Definition | |
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| Familiarization and Information Assembly | |
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| Identification of Initiating Events | |
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| Sequence or Scenario Development | |
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| Logic Modeling | |
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| Failure Data Collection, Analysis, and Performance Assessment | |
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| Quantification and Integration | |
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| Uncertainty Analysis | |
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| Sensitivity Analysis | |
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| Risk Ranking and Importance Analysis | |
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| Interpretation of Results | |
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| Strength of PRA | |
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| Scenario and Logic Modeling, Development, and Quantification | |
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| Fault Tree Method | |
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| Evaluation of Logic Trees | |
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| Event Trees Method | |
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| Master Logic Diagram | |
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| Modeling of Dependent Failures in Risk Assessment | |
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| Multiple Greek Letter Model | |
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| [alpha]-Factor Model | |
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| Binomial Failure Rate Model | |
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| Assessment of Parameters of CCF Models | |
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| A Simple Example of PRA | |
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| References | |
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| Performance Assessment: Data and Modeling | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Active Hardware Performance Assessment | |
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| Basic Random Processes Used in PRA | |
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| Homogeneous Poisson Process | |
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| Renewal Process | |
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| Analysis of Less than Perfect Repair: Generalized Renewal Process | |
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| Statistical Data Analysis for Hardware Items | |
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| Parameter Estimation for the HPP Using Complete Data | |
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| Parameter Estimation for NHPP Using Complete Data | |
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| Availability as a Measure of Performance for Repairable Hardware Items | |
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| Instantaneous (Point) Availability | |
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| Limiting Point Availability | |
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| Average Availability | |
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| Classical Parameter Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware | |
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| Estimation of Parameters of Exponential Distribution Model (Based on Complete Data) | |
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| Estimation of Parameters of Lognormal Distribution Model (Based on Complete Data) | |
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| Estimation of Parameters of Weibull Distribution Model (Based on Complete and Censored Data) | |
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| Estimation of Parameters of Binomial Distribution Model | |
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| Estimation of Parameters of Exponential, Lognormal, and Weibull Models when Dealing with Incomplete (Censored) Data | |
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| Bayesian Parameters Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware | |
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| Bayesian Estimation of the Parameter of Exponential Distribution Model | |
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| Bayesian Estimation of the Parameter of Binomial Distribution Model | |
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| A Comparison of Classical Parameter Estimation and Bayesian Parameter Estimation Methods: Advantages and Disadvantages | |
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| Performance of Passive and Some Active Hazard Barriers Through Physics and Engineering of Failure Modeling | |
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| Stress-Strength Models | |
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| Damage-Endurance Models | |
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| Software Performance Assessment | |
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| Software Reliability Models | |
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| Human Reliability Analysis | |
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| Human Reliability Analysis Process | |
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| Human Reliability Analysis Models | |
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| Human Reliability Data | |
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| Expert Opinion in Risk Assessment and Performance Assessment | |
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| Geometric Averaging Technique | |
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| Bayesian Approach | |
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| Statistical Evidence on the Accuracy of Expert Estimates | |
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| References | |
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| Uncertainty Analysis | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Types of Uncertainty | |
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| Model Uncertainty | |
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| Parameter Uncertainty | |
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| Measures of Uncertainty | |
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| Uncertainty Propagation Methods | |
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| Method of Moments | |
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| Probabilistic Methods (Monte Carlo Methods) | |
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| The Response Surface Method | |
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| Comparison of Uncertainty Propagation Methods | |
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| Monte Carlo Method | |
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| Differential Analysis (Method of Moments) | |
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| Response surface methodology | |
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| Graphic Representation of Uncertainty | |
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| References | |
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| Identifying, Ranking, and Predicting Contributors to Risk | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Importance Ranking in Probabilistic Risk Assessment | |
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| Birnbaum | |
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| Fussell-Vesely | |
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| Risk Reduction Worth (RRW) | |
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| Risk Achievement Worth (RAW) | |
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| Differential Importance Measure (DIM) | |
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| Importance Measures in Success Space | |
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| A Comprehensive Example of Importance Measure Application | |
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| Importance Measures in Failure and Success Domains | |
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| Consideration of Uncertainties in Importance Measures used for Risk-Based Ranking | |
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| Ranking Order Uncertainty | |
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| Uncertainty Associated with the Importance Measures | |
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| Illustrative Example | |
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| Relative Ranking Based on Uncertain Importance Measures | |
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| Absolute Ranking Based on Uncertain Importance Measures | |
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| Uncertainty Importance Measures | |
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| Precursor Analysis | |
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| Basic Methodology | |
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| Categorization and Selection of Precursor Events | |
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| Properties of Precursor Estimator for the Occurrence Rate of Hazard Exposure Events and their Interpretation | |
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| Applications of Precursor Analysis | |
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| Differences between Precursor Analysis and Probabilistic Risk Assessments | |
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| References | |
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| Representation of Risk Values and Risk Acceptance Criteria | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Representation of Risk Results | |
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| Health and Safety Risk Acceptance Criteria | |
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| Individual Risk Acceptance Criteria | |
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| Societal Risk Acceptance Criteria (Exposure, Consequence, Precursor) | |
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| Economic Risk and Performance Acceptance Criteria | |
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| Other Risk Acceptance Criteria in Form of Figures of Merit | |
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| Acceptable Risk Levels Based on Changes in Figures of Merit | |
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| Using Figures of Merit in Single Event Risk | |
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| Instantaneous Absolute Value Limits | |
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| Risk Acceptance Based on Importance Measures | |
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| Risk Acceptance Based on Value of Human Life | |
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| References | |
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| Decision Making Techniques Using Risk Information | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Economic Methods in Risk Analysis | |
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| Benefit-Cost Analysis | |
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| Cost-Effectiveness Analysis | |
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| Risk-Effectiveness Analysis | |
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| Noneconomic Techniques | |
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| Probability of Exceedance Method | |
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| Structured Value Analysis | |
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| Analytical Hierarchy Process | |
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| Decision Tree Analysis | |
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| References | |
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| Risk Communication | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Forms of Communication | |
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| Some Basic Rules of Risk Communication | |
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| Elements of Effective Risk Communication | |
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| Characteristics of an Effective Risk Communication | |
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| Risk Perception | |
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| References | |
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| Basic Reliability Mathematics: Review of Probability and Statistics | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Elements of Probability | |
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| Sets and Boolean Algebra | |
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| Basic Laws of Probability | |
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| Bayes' Theorem | |
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| Probability Distributions | |
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| Random Variable | |
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| Some Basic Discrete Distributions | |
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| Some Basic Continuous Distributions | |
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| Joint and Marginal Distributions | |
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| Basic Characteristics of Random Variables | |
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| Estimation and Hypothesis Testing | |
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| Point Estimation | |
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| Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing | |
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| Frequency Tables and Histograms | |
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| Goodness-of-Fit Tests | |
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| Chi-Square Test | |
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| Kolmogorov Test | |
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| Regression Analysis | |
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| Simple Linear Regression | |
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| References | |
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| Appendix B | |
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| Index | |