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| Preface | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Authors | |
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| Engineering Risk Management | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Boston's Central Artery/Tunnel Project | |
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| Objectives and Practices | |
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| New Challenges | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| Perspectives on Theories of Systems and Risk | |
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| Introduction | |
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| General Systems Theory | |
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| Complex Systems, Systems-of-Systems, and Enterprise Systems | |
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| Risk and Decision Theory | |
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| Engineering Risk Management | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| Foundations of Risk and Decision Theory | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Elements of Probability Theory | |
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| The Value Function | |
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| Risk and Utility Functions | |
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| vNM Utility Theory | |
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| Utility Functions | |
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| Multiattribute Utility-The Power Additive Utility Function | |
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| The Power-Additive Utility Function | |
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| Applying the Power-Additive Utility Function | |
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| Applications to Engineering Risk Management | |
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| Value Theory to Measure Risk | |
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| Utility Theory to Compare Designs | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| A Risk Analysis Framework in Engineering Enterprise Systems | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Perspectives on Engineering Enterprise Systems | |
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| A Framework for Measuring Enterprise Capability Risk | |
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| A Risk Analysis Algebra | |
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| Information Needs for Portfolio Risk Analysis | |
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| The "Cutting Edge" | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| An Index to Measure Risk Corelationships | |
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| Introduction | |
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| RCR Postulates, Definitions, and Theory | |
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| Computing the RCR Index | |
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| Applying the RCR Index: A Resource Allocation Example | |
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| Summary | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| Functional Dependency Network Analysis | |
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| Introduction | |
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| FDNA Fundamentals | |
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| Weakest Link Formulations | |
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| FDNA (�, �) Weakest Link Rule | |
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| Network Operability and Tolerance Analyses | |
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| Critical Node Analysis and Degradation Index | |
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| Degradation Tolerance Level | |
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| Special Topics | |
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| Operability Function Regulation | |
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| Constituent Nodes | |
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| Addressing Cycle Dependencies | |
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| Summary | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| A Decision-Theoretic Algorithm for Ranking Risk Criticality | |
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| Introduction | |
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| A Prioritization Algorithm | |
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| Linear Additive Model | |
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| Compromise Models | |
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| Criteria Weights | |
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| Illustration | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| A Model for Measuring Risk in Engineering Enterprise Systems | |
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| A Unifying Risk Analytic Framework and Process | |
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| A Traditional Process with Nontraditional Methods | |
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| A Model Formulation for Measuring Risk in Engineering Enterprise Systems | |
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| Summary | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| Random Processes and Queuing Theory | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Deterministic Process | |
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| Mathematical Determinism | |
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| Philosophical Determinism | |
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| Random Process | |
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| Concept of Uncertainity | |
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| Uncertainty, Randomness, and Probability | |
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| Causality and Uncertainty | |
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| Necessary and Sufficient Causes | |
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| Causalities and Risk Scenario Identification | |
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| Probabilistic Causation | |
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| Markov Process | |
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| Birth and Death Process | |
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| Queuing Theory | |
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| Characteristic of Queuing Systems | |
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| Poisson Process and Distribution | |
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| Exponential Distribution | |
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| Basic Queuing Models | |
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| Single-Server Model | |
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| Probability of an Empty Queuing System | |
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| Probability That There are Exactly N Entities Inside the Queuing Systems | |
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| Mean Number of Entities in the Queuing System | |
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| Mean Number of Waiting Entities | |
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| Average Latency Time of Entities | |
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| Average Time of an Entity Waiting to Be Served | |
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| Applications to Engineering Systems | |
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| Summary | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| Extreme Event Theory | |
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| Introduction to Extreme and Rare Events | |
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| Extreme and Rare Events and Engineering Systems | |
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| Traditional Data Analysis | |
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| Extreme Value Analysis | |
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| Extreme Event Probability Distributions | |
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| Independent Single-Order Statistic | |
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| Limit Distributions | |
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| Determining Domain of Attraction Using Inverse Function | |
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| Determining Domain of Attraction Using Graphical Method | |
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| Steps in Visual Analysis of Empirical Data | |
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| Estimating Parameters of GEVD | |
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| Complex Systems and Extreme and Rare Events | |
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| Extreme and Rare Events in a Complex System | |
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| Complexity and Causality | |
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| Complexity and Correlation | |
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| Final Words on Causation | |
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| Summary | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| Prioritization Systems in Highly Networked Environments | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Priority Systems | |
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| PS Notation | |
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| Types of Priority Systems | |
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| Static Priority Systems | |
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| Dynamic Priority Systems | |
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| State-Dependent DPS | |
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| Time-Dependent DPS | |
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| Summary | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| Questions | |
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| Risks of Extreme Events in Complex Queuing Systems | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Risk of Extreme Latency | |
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| Methodology for Measurement of Risk | |
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| Conditions for Unbounded Latency | |
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| Saturated PS | |
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| Conditions for Bounded Latency | |
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| Bounded Latency Times in Saturated Static PS | |
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| Bounded Latency Times in a Saturated SDPS | |
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| Combinations of Gumbel Types | |
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| Derived Performance Measures | |
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| Tolerance Level for Risk | |
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| Degree of Deficit | |
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| Relative Risks | |
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| Differentation Tolerance Level | |
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| Cost Functions | |
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| Optimization of PS | |
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| Cost Function Minimization | |
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| Bounds on Waiting Line | |
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| Pessimistic and Optimistic Decisions in Extremes | |
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| Summary | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| Bernoulli Utility and the St. Petersburg Paradox | |
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| The St. Petersburg Paradox | |
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| Use Expected Utility, Not Expected Value | |
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| Questions and Exercises | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |