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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Why Study Foreign Policy from a Decision-Making Perspective? | |
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| Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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| Why Study Foreign Policy Decision Making? | |
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| The Rational and Cognitive Schools | |
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| Comparative Foreign Policy | |
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| Limitations of the Decision-Making Approach | |
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| Plan of the Book | |
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| The Decision Environment | |
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| Types of Decisions and Levels of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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| Types of Decisions | |
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| Unilateral, Negotiated, Structured, and Unstructured Decisions | |
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| Holistic, Heuristic and Wholistic Decisions | |
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| Trade-offs in Decision Making | |
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| The Level of Analysis in Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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| Individual-Level Decisions | |
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| Group-level Decisions | |
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| Coalition Decision Making | |
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| Case Study: Israel's Foreign Policy Making by Coalition | |
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| Another Example of Coalition Decision Making: Iceland's Cod War, 1971-1974 | |
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| The Decision Environment | |
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| Time Constraints | |
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| Information Constraints | |
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| Ambiguity | |
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| Familiarity | |
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| Dynamic Setting | |
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| Interactive Setting | |
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| Risk | |
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| Stress | |
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| Accountability | |
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| The Role of Advisory Groups | |
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| Information Search Patterns | |
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| Holistic versus Nonholistic Search | |
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| Order-Sensitive versus Order-Insensitive Search | |
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| Alternative-Based versus Dimension-Based Search | |
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| Maximizing versus Satisficing Search Patterns | |
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| Compensatory versus Noncompensatory Rule | |
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| Noncompensatory Decision Rules | |
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| Conjunctive Decision Rule (CON) | |
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| Disjunctive Decision Rule (DIS) | |
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| Elimination-by-aspect (EBA) Decision Rule | |
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| Lexicographic (LEX) Decision Rule | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Biases in Decision Making | |
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| Case Study: The U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq In 2003 – the Effect of Cognitive Biases on Foreign Policy Making | |
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| Groupthink | |
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| Groupthink in American Foreign Policy | |
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| Beyond Groupthink | |
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| Groupthink and Multiple Advocacy | |
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| Polythink | |
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| Case Study: Polythink at Camp David, 2000 | |
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| Did Polythink Lead to the Collapse of the Camp David Talks? | |
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| Group Polarization Effect | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Models of Decision Making | |
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| The Rational Actor Model | |
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| The Rational Actor Model | |
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| Case Study: New Zealand's Defiance of the United States and ANZUS | |
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| The Expected Utility Model of War Decision Making | |
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| Opportunity Costs | |
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| Game-Theoretic Models | |
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| Prisoner's Dilemma | |
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| Chicken | |
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| Tit-for-Tat | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Alternatives to the Rational Actor Model | |
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| Bounded Rationality and the Cybernetic Model | |
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| Bureaucratic Politics | |
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| Organizational Politics | |
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| Prospect Theory | |
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| Sunk Costs | |
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| Integrating the Rational and Cognitive Models: Poliheuristic Theory | |
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| What is Poliheuristic Decision Making? | |
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| Case Study: The Decision not to Invade Iraq in 1991 - An Application of Various Decision-Making Models to a Foreign Policy Event | |
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| Background | |
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| A Rational Actor Interpretation | |
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| A Cybernetic Explanation | |
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| A Prospect Theory Explanation | |
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| A Poliheuristic Explanation | |
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| An Organizational Politics Explanation | |
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| A Bureaucratic Politics Model | |
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| Applied Decision Analysis | |
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| A Simple Example: The Cuban Missile Crisis and the Decision Matrix | |
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| ADA: A Closer Look | |
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| Application to Decisions of Leaders of Terrorist Organizations: Bin Laden and al-Qaeda | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Determinants of Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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| Psychological Factors Affecting Foreign Policy Decisions | |
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| Psychological Factors | |
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| Cognitive Consistency | |
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| Evoked Set | |
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| Emotions | |
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| Images | |
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| Beliefs, Belief Systems, and Schema | |
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| Operational Code Analysis | |
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| Analogies and Learning | |
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| The “Munich Analogy” and Use of Analogies in U.S. Foreign Policy | |
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| Case Study: Analogies in U.S.-Cuban Relations, 1954-1967 | |
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| The Analogies Provided by Guatemala, 1954 | |
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| The Bay of Pigs | |
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| The Cuban Foco and Africa, 1965 | |
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| Bolivia, 1966-1967 | |
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| Leaders' Personality | |
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| Leadership Style | |
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| Types of Leaders: Crusader, Strategic, Pragmatic, and Opportunistic | |
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| Cognitive Mapping | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| International, Domestic, and Cultural Factors Influencing Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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| International Factors | |
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| Deterrence and Arms Races | |
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| Strategic Surprise | |
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| Alliances | |
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| Regime Type of the Adversary | |
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| Domestic Factors | |
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| Diversionary Tactics | |
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| Economic Interests and Foreign Policy Decisions | |
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| The Role of Public Opinion | |
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| Electoral Cycles | |
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| The Effect of Domestic and International Factors on Foreign Policy Decisions: Two-Level Games | |
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| Case Study: The Domestic and International Underpinnings of Decision Making - the Falklands War, 1982 | |
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| Diversionary Behavior | |
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| Deterrence and Misperception | |
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| Electoral Impact | |
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| Decisions on the Use of Economic Instruments of Foreign Policy | |
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| The Decision to Use Sanctions as an Instrument of Foreign Policy | |
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| The Decision to Use Aid in Foreign Policy | |
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| Negotiation and Mediation Decisions | |
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| Decisions on Foreign Policy Substitutability | |
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| Gender Differences in Decision Making | |
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| Cultural Differences in Decision Making | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Marketing Foreign Policy | |
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| Framing, Marketing, and Media Effects on Foreign Policy Decision Making | |
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| Marketing Effects | |
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| Framing Effects | |
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| The Frame as a Political Lens | |
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| Who is Framing Whom? Framing the Public | |
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| Framing beyond the Borders | |
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| Advisory Group Framing and Manipulating | |
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| Summary | |
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| Media Effects | |
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| Case Study: The Marketing of the U.S. Invasion of Grenada, 1983 | |
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| Background | |
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| The Key Decision Makers | |
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| The Marketing of the Decision | |
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| The Decision Process | |
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| Could the Process Actually Have Been a Compensatory One? | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| What Does it All Mean?: A Case Study of the U.S. Decision to Invade Iraq in 2003 | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| Appendix: Foreign Policy Simulation and Exercise | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |