Managing the Unknown A New Approach to Managing High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects

ISBN-10: 0471693057

ISBN-13: 9780471693055

Edition: 2006

Authors: Christoph H. Loch, Arnoud DeMeyer, Michael T. Pich

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This book covers project risk management (PRM) differently than any other book available. The authors' present a new way of looking at the problem of managing projects in unusual and unknown environments: rather than working harder, straining to consider more possibilities in planning and formal risk management, they stress that a project manager must recognize that a project's unusual circumstances or complexity make planning approaches insufficient. In such cases, project managers must make use of two fundamentally different approaches: learning, or a flexible adjustment of the project approach as one learns more about the project, its environment and their interactions (as opposed to a contingent approach that utilizes planned 'trigger points'), and selectionism, or pursuing multiple approaches independently of one another and then picking the best one.
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Book details

List price: $115.00
Copyright year: 2006
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 3/10/2006
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 304
Size: 6.50" wide x 9.50" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 1.188
Language: English

Dr. Christoph H. Loch, Dr. Arnoud DeMeyer, Dr. Michael T. Pich, Department of Technology Management, ISEAD, Fontainebleu, FRANCE The authors are professors at Europe's leading business school - INSEAD. All have been in both the private sector and in academia and all are currently involved in teaching project management, strategic management, and technology management.

Project Management and Project Risk Management (PRM)
Operational Risk Management and PRM
Contribution and Plan of the Book
A New Look at Project Risk Management
PRM Best Practice: The PCNet Project
The PCNet Project
Risk Identification
Risk Assessment and Prioritization
Impact Assessment
Risk Prioritization
Risk Monitoring and Management
Proactive Influencing of Risk Factors
Monitoring and Reporting
Managing Residual Risks
Learning and Sharing Across Projects
Learning over Time
Learning from the Residual Risks
Overall Success of the PCNet Project and Learning Applied to Other Projects
PRM as a Method and as a Mind-Set
Summary and Conclusion
The Limits of Established PRM: The Circored Project
Early Design of the Circored Technology
Cliffs' Strategic Business Idea
The Circored Technology and Early Preparations
Joint Venture and Business Plan
The Construction Phase, May 1996-April 1999
The Startup Phase, May 1999-Summer 2000
A Management and Design Change
Market Turmoil
The Limits of PRM: Unforeseeable Uncertainty
Summary and Conclusion
A Broader Look at Project Risk Management
Understanding the Fundamental Types of Uncertainty
Foreseeable Uncertainty and Residual Risk
Foreseeable Events
Residual Risk
Task Complexity: Control-and-Fast-Response
Relationship Complexity: Contracts as Risk-Sharing Tools
Unknown Unknowns
Two Fundamental Approaches: Learning and Selectionism
Expanding the Toolbox: Fundamental Approaches to Project Uncertainty
Managing the Unknown
Diagnosing Complexity and Uncertainty
Diagnosing the Unforeseeable at Escend Technologies
Diagnosing the Unforeseeable
Diagnosing Complexity
A Process for Diagnosing Uncertainty and Complexity at the Outset
Evolve the Complexity and Uncertainty Profile
Learning in Projects
Learning at Escend Technologies
Planning and Firefighting
Diagnosis and Learning
First Results and Further Adjustments
Types of Project Learning
Three Types of Learning
Double-Loop Learning through Improvisation or Experimentation
The Trade-off Between Learning and Progress
Back to Escend: Drawing the Lessons
Interpreting the Escend Example
An Experimentation Process
Multiple Parallel Projects: Selectionism
Selectionism at Option International
Company Background
The Challenge: An Unpredictably Changing Market
Selectionist Trials to Find a New Business Model
Explaining the Principles of Selectionism
What Makes Selectionism Work?
In What Space Are Alternatives Developed?
How Many Parallel Trials?
When to Stop Trials?
Ensuring Selection and Commitment to the Chosen Trial
Leveraging the Benefits of the Nonselected Outcomes
Selectionism and Learning in Projects
Selectionism and Learning at Molecular Diagnostics
Choosing and Combining Selectionism and Learning
Understanding the Cost of Darwinian Selection and Sequential Learning
Value Comparison of Darwinian Selection and Sequential Learning
Exploratory Learning and the Value of Partial Information
The PRM Contingency Planning Approach
A Combined Choice Framework
Reexamining the Circored Project with This New Framework
Putting Selectionism and Learning into Practice
Establishing the Project Mind-Set
Open-Mindedness: Expecting the Unexpected
Choosing the Project Team with the Right Experience
Mindfulness: a Culture of Openness
Open-Mindedness among Project Partners
Project Vision, or a "Map" of Unknown Terrain
An Example: Rapid Manufacturing Technologies
A Roadmap into Unknown Terrain
Robust-Mindedness: The Ability to Cope
Sensemaking and Social Cohesion to Prevent a Team Breakdown
A Sensemaking Breakdown in Automotive Development
Robustness: Social Identity and a Map
Summary: How to Foster an Unk Unk Mind-Set
Putting the Infrastructure in Place
Managerial Systems in Project Risk Management
The Management Systems of Learning (Sub)Projects
Planning System
Monitoring System
Coordination and Information System
Evaluation and Incentive System
The Management Systems of Selectionist (Sub)Projects
Planning Systems
Monitoring Systems
Coordination and Information Systems
Evaluation and Incentive Systems
Integrating Learning and Selectionist Pieces into the Overall Project
Buffers for the Subprojects Threatened by Unk Unks
Clarify Dependence of Other Subprojects
Transfer Preliminary Information
Managing Unk Unks with Partners
The Dangers of Project Contracts
The Eurotunnel Project
Other Examples
The Limitations of and the Need to Extend Contracts
A Problem-Solving Process in the Face of Unk Unks
Choose Partners for Competence They Contribute
Clear Risk and Reward Allocation and Flexibility
Fair Process
Early-Warning Systems
Relationship and Trust Building
Summary: A Process of Partner Relationship Management
Managing Project Stakeholders
The Project of the Flying Car
Concept Generation-Three Ideas Emerge
From Concepts to Reality
Prototype Execution
Friction within the Development Team
Friction among External Partners
Selling the Project to the Organization
Management Systems for Selectionist Trials in Vol de Nuit
How Informal Stakeholders May Hold Up a Project
Strategy and Economic Reasoning
Politics and Influence: Differing Interests and Network Structure
Egos and Emotions in the Approach of Individuals
Lessons: Map the Decision Influence Levels to Sell the Project
Managing the Unknown: The Role of Senior Management
The Role of Senior Management in Novel Projects
Choosing the Project Scope
Understanding the Strategic Rewards
Shaping the Project Portfolio
Enforce Risk Reduction in the Projects in Which Novelty Is Not Critical
Building Organizational Capabilities
The Project Management Team
The Project Infrastructure Structure
Sponsoring Novel Projects
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