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| Preface | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Introduction Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants | |
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| Foundations | |
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| The Big Picture | |
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| The Flaw of Averages | |
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| The Fall of the Algebraic Curtain and Rise of the Flaw of Averages | |
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| Mitigating the Flaw of Averages | |
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| The Wright Brothers Versus the Wrong Brothers | |
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| The Most Important Instrument in the Cockpit | |
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| Five Basic MINDIes for Uncertainty | |
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| MINDIes Are to MINDs What HANDIes Are to HANDs | |
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| Mindle 1: Uncertainty Versus Risk | |
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| Mindle 2: An Uncertain Number Is a Shape | |
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| Mindle 3: Combinations of Uncertain Numbers | |
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| I Come to Bury Sigma, Not to Praise it | |
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| Mindle 4: Terri Dial and the Drunk in the Road | |
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| Who Was Jensen and Why Wasn't He Equal? | |
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| The Nuts and Bolts of the Strong Form of the Flaw of Averages | |
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| Mindle 5: Interrelated Uncertainties | |
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| Decisions and Information | |
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| Decision Trees | |
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| The Value of Information | |
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| Because There Isn't Anything Else | |
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| The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging | |
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| The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging | |
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| The Flaw of Extremes | |
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| Simpson's Paradox | |
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| The Scholtes Revenue Fallacy | |
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| Taking Credit for Chance Occurrences | |
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| Applications | |
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| The Flaw of Averages in Finance | |
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| Your Retirement Portfolio | |
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| The Birth of Portfolio Theory: The Age of Covariance | |
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| When Harry Met Bill(y) | |
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| Mindles for the Financial Planning Client | |
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| Options: Profiting from Uncertainty | |
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| When Fischer and Myron Met Bob: Option Theory | |
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| Prices, Probabilities, and Predictions | |
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| Real Finance | |
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| Holistic Versus Hole-istic | |
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| Real Portfolios at Shell | |
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| Real Options | |
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| Some Gratuitous Inflammatory Remarks on the Accounting Industry | |
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| The Flaw of Averages in Supply Chains | |
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| The DNA of Supply Chains | |
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| A Supply Chain of DNA | |
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| Cawlfield's Principle | |
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| The Flaw of Averages and Some Hot Button Issues | |
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| The Statistical Research Group of World War II | |
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| Probability and the War on Terror | |
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| The Flaw of Averages and Climate Change | |
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| The Flaw of Averages in Health Care | |
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| Sex and the Central Limit Theorem | |
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| Probability Management | |
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| Toward a Cure for the Flaw of Averages | |
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| The End of Statistics as You Were Taught It | |
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| Visualization | |
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| Interactive Simulation: A New Lightbulb | |
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| Scenario Libraries: The Power Grid | |
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| The Fundamental Identity of SLURP Algebra | |
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| Putting It into Practice | |
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| The CPO: Managing Probability Management | |
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| A Posthumous Visit by My Father | |
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| Red Word Glossary | |
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| Notes | |
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| About the Author | |
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| Index | |