Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects

ISBN-10: 1880410281
ISBN-13: 9781880410288
Edition: 2nd 2001
Authors: John R. Schuyler
List price: $34.95
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Book details

List price: $34.95
Edition: 2nd
Copyright year: 2001
Publisher: Project Management Institute
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 259
Size: 7.00" wide x 10.25" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 1.496
Language: English

List of Figures
List of Tables
Preface
Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis
Risk and Decision Analysis
Introduction
Decision Problems
Credible Analysis
Risk and Uncertainty
Frequency and Probability Distributions
Expected Value
Summary: Expected Value, the Best Estimator
Moment Methods
Popular Equations
Correlation
Decision Analysis Process
Ten Steps toward Better Decisions
Who Does All This Work?
Decision Policy
Intuition Is a Poor Method
Decision Maker's Preferences
Attitude toward Different Objectives
Attitude toward Time Value
Attitude toward Risk
Decision Policy Summary
Crane Size Decision
Utility and Multi-Criteria Decisions
Exceptions to Expected Monetary Value Decision Policy
Conservative Risk Attitude
Utility Function for Risk Policy
Multi-Criteria Decisions
Three Pillars of Decision Analysis
Decision Policy Summary
Decision Trees
Decision Trees
Wastewater Plant Example
Tree Software
Decision Tree Summary
Value of Information
Revisiting the Wastewater Plant Problem
Value of Information
Plant Information Alternative
Value of Information Summary
Bayesian Analysis
Killing the Project in Time
Early Warnings
Gateways
Point-Forward Analysis
Options Add Value
Feel Good about Your Decision
Monte Carlo Simulation
Approximating Expected Value
Wastewater Plant Revisited
Monte Carlo Technique
Wastewater Plant Simulation
Simulation in Practice
Comparing Simulation to Trees
Project Risk Management--By the Numbers
The Business Perspective
Model Scope
PMBOK Guide Sections
Pre-Project Risk Management
During the Project
Keep Your Perspective
Quick-and-Dirty Decisions
Common Simple Situation
Risk Management Plan
Sensitivity Analysis
Evaluating Alternatives
Mitigating and Avoiding Risks
Portfolio Risks
Commodity Prices
Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
Environmental Hazards
Operational Risks
Analysis Risks (Reducing Evaluation Error)
Comparison with the PMBOK Guide - 2000 Edition
Asset Value Perspective
Continuous Risk Events
Risk Prioritization Needs Quantification
Modeling and Inputs
Modeling Techniques
Forecasts from Models
Deterministic Project Models
Deterministic Cashflow Models
Modeling Process
Modeling Tools
Sensitivity Analysis
Dynamic Simulation Models
Summary--Toward Credible Evaluations
Probability Distribution Types
Probability Distributions
Discrete Distributions
Continuous Distributions
Which Distribution Is Best?
Judgments and Biases
Three Roles
Judgments
Biases
Improving Evaluations
Summary
Relating Risks
Correlation
Sources of Correlation
Ways to Represent Correlation
Human Factors
Stochastic Variance
Base Case versus Stochastic Model
Variance Analysis
Summary
New Venture Analysis
Special Topics
Exploiting the Best of Critical Chain and Monte Carlo Simulation
Critical Chain
Decision Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation
Comparing Approaches
Combining Methods
Summary
Optimizing Project Plan Decisions
It's an Optimization Problem
Example Project Model
Optimizing Activity Starts
Incentives
Optimization Experience
Simplifying Project Decisions
Probability Rules
Venn Diagrams and Boolean Algebra
Key Probability Theorems
Thinking Logically
Expert Systems in Project Management
Smart Computers
Expert Systems
Neural Networks
Fuzzy Logic
Summary of Methods
Some Additional Methods
Deterministic or Stochastic?
Decision Analysis Software
Spreadsheets
Monte Carlo Simulation
Decision Tree Analysis
Project Risk Management
Glossary
Abbreviations
Symbols
Terms
Bibliography
Index

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