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| Foreword | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Understanding Deadly Conflict | |
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| Global Conflict in the Twenty-First Century | |
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| Trends | |
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| Costs of Conflict | |
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| Perils of Prediction | |
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| Conflict Analysis and Adaptive Leadership | |
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| Causes of Conflict and Peace | |
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| The Curve of Conflict | |
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| The Strategic Dimension | |
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| The Political Dimension | |
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| The Socioeconomic Dimension | |
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| The Psychological Dimension | |
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| The Cultural Dimension | |
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| Violence as a Strategic Choice | |
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| Risk Assessment and Early Warning | |
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| Early Warning Watchlists | |
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| Conflict Metrics Instruments | |
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| Environmental Degradation and Climate Change | |
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| Genocide and Mass Atrocities | |
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| Early Warning at the Local Level | |
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| Tools for the Trade | |
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| Conflict Assessment Frameworks | |
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| Self-Assessment | |
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| Gathering Information | |
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| Four-Step Assessment Process | |
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| Transition to Planning | |
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| Narrative Analysis | |
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| Listening as a Peacebuilding Technique | |
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| Who: Leaders and Constituents | |
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| What and Why: Positions Versus Interests and Needs | |
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| When: Mythic Histories | |
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| Where: Territorial Narratives | |
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| How: Strategy and Tactics | |
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| Conflict Mapping and Systems Mapping | |
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| Conflict Mapping | |
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| Systems Mapping | |
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| Scenario Analysis | |
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| Scenario-Building Techniques | |
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| Scenario Analysis in Conflict Management | |
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| Visualizing Scenarios | |
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| Selecting and Tracking Indicators | |
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| Linking Vision to Action | |
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| From Analysis to Action | |
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| Navigating Cognitive Minefields | |
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| Groupthink | |
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| Black Swans | |
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| Psychic Numbing | |
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| Conflict Analysis in the Planning Process | |
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| Framing the Problem | |
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| Defining Objectives | |
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| Situation Analysis | |
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| Designing a Plan of Action | |
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| Measuring Progress and Adapting to Change | |
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| Conclusion: The Value of Collaborative Conflict Analysis | |
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| Appendices | |
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| Estimating Mortality from Violent Conflict | |
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| Early Warning Watchlists and Reports | |
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| Conflict Metrics | |
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| Private Strategic Forecasters | |
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| Conflict Assessment Frameworks | |
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| U.S. Institute of Peace Narrative Analysis Framework | |
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| Conflict Mapping Tools | |
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| Template for a Logical Framework Matrix (Logframe) | |
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| Glossary | |
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| Resources | |
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| Index | |