x

Our Privacy Policy has changed. By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy.

Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't

ISBN-10: 159420411X
ISBN-13: 9781594204111
Edition: 2012
Authors: Nate Silver
List price: $27.95 Buy it from $2.39
30 day, 100% satisfaction guarantee

If an item you ordered from TextbookRush does not meet your expectations due to an error on our part, simply fill out a return request and then return it by mail within 30 days of ordering it for a full refund of item cost.

Learn more about our returns policy

Description: Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty.The New York Timesnow  More...

Used Starting from $14.93
New Starting from $22.10
what's this?
Rush Rewards U
Members Receive:
coins
coins
You have reached 400 XP and carrot coins. That is the daily max!

Study Briefs

Limited time offer: Get the first one free! (?)

All the information you need in one place! Each Study Brief is a summary of one specific subject; facts, figures, and explanations to help you learn faster.

Add to cart
Study Briefs
Periodic Table Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Business Ethics Online content $4.95 $1.99
Add to cart
Study Briefs
Business Law Online content $4.95 $1.99

Customers also bought

Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading
Loading

Book details

List price: $27.95
Copyright year: 2012
Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date: 9/27/2012
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 544
Size: 6.50" wide x 9.75" long x 1.25" tall
Weight: 1.914
Language: English

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty.The New York Timesnow publishesFiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Introduction
A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction
Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit?
All I Care About is W's and L�s
For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green
Desperately Seeking Signal
How to Drown in Three Feet of Water
Role Models
Less and Less and Less Wrong
Rage Against the Machines
The Poker Bubble
If You Can't Beat'em …
A Climate of Healthy Skepticism
What You Don't Know Can Hurt You
Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Notes
Index

×
Free shipping on orders over $35*

*A minimum purchase of $35 is required. Shipping is provided via FedEx SmartPost® and FedEx Express Saver®. Average delivery time is 1 – 5 business days, but is not guaranteed in that timeframe. Also allow 1 - 2 days for processing. Free shipping is eligible only in the continental United States and excludes Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico. FedEx service marks used by permission."Marketplace" orders are not eligible for free or discounted shipping.

Learn more about the TextbookRush Marketplace.

×