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Value-Added Decision Making for Managers

ISBN-10: 1420075721
ISBN-13: 9781420075724
Edition: 2011
List price: $159.95 Buy it from $139.45
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Description: Managers, especially those in a technical environment, regularly face complex decision involving uncertainty and multiple objectives. This book presents approaches and mathematical models designed to structure the decision making process. With  More...

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Book details

List price: $159.95
Copyright year: 2011
Publisher: CRC Press LLC
Publication date: 10/5/2011
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 578
Size: 7.25" wide x 10.25" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 2.838
Language: English

Managers, especially those in a technical environment, regularly face complex decision involving uncertainty and multiple objectives. This book presents approaches and mathematical models designed to structure the decision making process. With numerous real-world examples from a variety of industries, it highlights symptoms of a poor decision process; presents an influence diagram that clarifies key objectives and uncertainties; and demonstrates the role of structured decision making in common day-to-day decisions using templates, illustrations, and comprehensive lists. A CD is included with software for decision trees and multi-objective decisions as well as PowerPoint slides.

Preface
Acknowledgments
Authors
Structuring Hard Decisions
The Case for a Structured Analytic Decision Process
Goal and Overview
The Challenge
Decision Analysis Effectiveness
Do Not Trust Your Gut
Maximize versus Satisfice
Established Biases
What Makes a Decision Difficult?
Symptoms of a Poor Decision-Making Process
Transparent and Efficient Decision Making
Other Modeling Tools
Probabilistic Models
Deterministic Models
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
Discuss the Factors That Made the Following Decisions Difficult
References
Influence Diagrams: Framing Multi-Objective and Uncertain Decisions
Goal and Overview
Components of an Influence Diagram
Learn by Simple Example: Automation Investment
Divide and Delay Decision: Plan an RSVP Theater Party
Arrows in Complex Influence Diagram: New Product Late-to-Market
Multiple Objective Influence Diagram: Buying a Used Car
Oglethorpe Power Corporation: Actual Case
Influence Diagram Construction: Review
Solving Influence Diagrams
Recent Articles on Influence Diagrams
Exercises
References
Common Decision Templates
Goal and Overview
In-House or Outsource (Make or Buy)
Change (Upgrade) or Keep Status Quo
Products: Launch, Portfolios, and Project Management
Project Management: Product Development
Capacity Planning
Technology Choice
Personnel and Organizational Selection: Hire Faculty
Facility Location: Sports Arena
Bidding: Make Offer
Personal: University Selection
Information Gathering: Market Research, Prototypes, and Pilot Plants
Summary
Exercises
References
Decisions with Multiple Objectives
Structure Decisions with Multiple Objectives
Goal and Overview
Description of the Overall MAUT Process
Basic Terminology
Fundamental Objectives
Objectives Hierarchy: Examples
Top-Down Approach: Global Facility Location
Bottom-Up Approach: Kitchen Remodeling
Measures
Example: Buy a Used Car
Identify Alternatives
Real-World Applications
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
Cases
References
Structured Trade-Offs for Multiple Objective Decisions: Multi-Attribute Utility Theory
Goal and Overview
Concepts and Terminology
Compare Alternatives
Trade-Off Conflicting Objectives
Single-Measure Utility Function: Proportional Scores
Aggregate Utility: Total Score for Each Alternative
Assessing Weights Revisited: Large Set of Measures
Assess Individual (Single-Measure) Utility Function: Nonlinear Utility Functions and Constructed Measures
Group Decision Making
Uncertainty
Contractor Selection for Kitchen Remodeling
Real-World Application: Multi-Attribute Risk Analysis in Nuclear Emergency Management
Selection of Best Conformal Coating Process
Nonlinear Additivity: Multiplicative Form
Research Issues with Weight Elicitation
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
Cases
Background Information
References
Value and Risk Management for Multi-Objective Decisions
Goal and Overview
Synthesize Weighted Sum
Comparison of Two Alternatives
Robustness of a Decision Using Sensitivity Analysis
Value Enhancement with Hybrid: Lighting Example
Better Alternative through Value Enhancement: Kitchen Remodeling
Value Enhancement: Warehouse Selection
Value Enhancement and Risk Management: Process Selection
Risk Analysis and Management
MAUT and Subject Matter Experts: Process
Applications
Exercises
References
Multiple Objective Decisions with Limited Data: Analytical Hierarchy Process
Goal and Overview
AHP Procedure Details and Snow Blower Example
Commercial Snow Throwers Selection
Select a Job
Software Selection
Growth of AHP Pair-Wise Comparison Effort
Comparison of AHP vs. MAUT
Application Capsule: Compare AHP with MAUT: A Case Study
Consistency Ratio
Consistency Measurement
Exercises
References
Decisions and Management under Uncertainty
Value-Added Risk Management Framework and Strategies
Goal and Overview
Overview of the Risk Management Process
Risk Identification
Risk Quantification
Systems Risk Analysis
Risk Mitigation Framework
Risk Communication, Perception, and Awareness
Alternative Risk Mitigation and Elimination Strategies
Exercises
References
Spreadsheet Simulation for Decisions with Uncertainty
Goal and Overview
Using @Risk Spreadsheet Simulation
Project Acceleration Investment
Profit Forecasting for Drug Development
Global Sourcing Risk Analysis
Real-World Applications @Risk
Exercises
References
Decisions with Uncertainty: Decision Trees
Goal and Overview
Early Users of Decision Trees
Concepts
Influence Diagrams and Schematic Trees
Constructing and Analyzing a Simple Decision Tree
Risk Profile/Cumulative Risk Profile
Complex Symmetric Decision Tree: Make or Buy
Asymmetric Tree: Design Change
Sequential Decisions
Robustness of Optimal Solution through Sensitivity Analysis
Real World Applications
Basic Terminology/Glossary of Terms
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
Decision Tree Examples
Decision Trees: Cases
References
Structured Risk Management and the Value of Information and Delay
Goal and Overview
Identify High-Impact Variables
Risk Profiles and Structured Risk Management
Make or Buy Example: Discrete Decision Tree Analysis
Perfect and Imperfect Information
Imperfect Information: Bayes' Theorem
Conditional Decisions and Information Seeking Trees: Flu Virus Detection Technology
Contingent Contracts Reduce Risk
Real Options
Exercises
References
Risk Attitude and Utility Theory
Goals and Overview
Utility Theory: Concepts and Terminology
Utility Function Assessment
Change the Risk Equation: Insurance and Risk Sharing
Case Study: Phillips Petroleum and Onshore U.S. Oil Exploration
Utility Theory: Practical and Theoretical Challenges
Current Research in Utility Theory
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
Utility Theory Examples
References
Challenges to "Rational" Decisions
Forecast Bias and Expert Interviews
Goals and Overview
Motivational and Personal Biases
Point Estimate and Narrow Ranges: Overconfidence
Faulty Probability Reasoning
Availability and Representativeness:
Confirmation and Interpretation Bias
Expert Interview: How to Identify and Reduce Bias
Research into Probabilistic Forecasts
Phrases: Bad Alternative to Actual Quantification
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
References
Decision Bias
Goal and Overview
Sunk Cost and Escalation of Commitment
Framing Bias
Status Quo and Omission Bias
Regret
Fairness
Mood
Groupthink, Optimism, and Miscellaneous Biases
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
References
Decisions with Multiple Perspectives
Value-Added Negotiations
Goal and Overview
Understanding Negotiations
Challenges to Effective Negotiation
Managing the Negotiation Process
Negotiating a Deal
Negotiating a Dispute
Agents and Multiparty Negotiations
Negotiating across Border
Negotiating Ethically
Conclusion
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
Additional Exercises
References
Ethical Decisions
Goal and Overview
Ethical Decision-Making Framework
Values
Biases, Myopia, and Don't Want to Know
Pressures Undermine Ethical Balance
Short Cases
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
Case
Alternatives
Whistle Blowing/Speaking Out
References
Strategic Direction, Planning, and Decision Making
Goal and Overview
Strategic Planning
Elements of Strategic Decisions
Situation Assessment: SWOT Analysis
Basic Tools: Decision Hierarchy and Strategy Table
Strategy Development Steps for Large Organizations
Scenario Planning
Exercises
Complete Chapter Activities
Elements of Scenario Planning Trends and Uncertainties
References
Instructions for Downloading the DecisionTools Suite
Instructions for Downloading Logical Decisions
Index

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