Predicting Politics

ISBN-10: 0814250947
ISBN-13: 9780814250945
Edition: N/A
List price: $34.95
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Book details

List price: $34.95
Publisher: Ohio State University Press
Publication date: 6/24/2002
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 170
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.25" long x 0.50" tall
Weight: 0.550
Language: English

Predicting Politics
Organization of the Book
A Shift from Realism?
Why Game Theory Analysis?
Social Forces as Context
Path Interdependence: An Illustration
Text of the Concordat of Worms
The Power of the Pope
A Brief Historical Review
The Model
Implications for Pope and King
Narrative Account of Evidence
The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment
Tools for Predicting Politics
Logical Foundation of the Model
Estimating the Model
Developing the Data
Model Output
Prediction and International Relations
The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property
Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution
Predicting the Cold War's End
Counterfactual Histories
Global Democratization
Helsinki: The New International Environment
The Global Swing toward Democracy
EUM and Governance, 1980-2000
EUM and the Future of Democratization
Random Shocks and Robustness
Democratization and Domestic Pressures
Simulating Russia's Future
Simulating China's Future
War in the Future
Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income
Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration
Democracy, War, and the Future
Flash Points and the Future

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