Predicting Politics

Name: Predicting Politics
Price: 11.35 USD
Availability: InStock
ISBN: 9780814250945

ISBN-10: 0814250947

ISBN-13: 9780814250945

Edition: 2002

Authors: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

List price: $34.95

30 day, 100% satisfaction guarantee!

Marketplace

3 new & used from $11.35

what's this?

Rush Rewards U
Members Receive:

You have reached 400 XP and carrot coins. That is the daily max!

Book details

List price: $34.95
Copyright year: 2002
Publisher: Ohio State University Press
Publication date: 6/24/2002
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 170
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.25" long x 0.50" tall
Weight: 0.550
Language: English



Preface



Predicting Politics


Organization of the Book


A Shift from Realism?


Why Game Theory Analysis?


Social Forces as Context


Conclusion



Path Interdependence: An Illustration


Text of the Concordat of Worms


The Power of the Pope


A Brief Historical Review


The Model


Implications for Pope and King


Narrative Account of Evidence


The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment


Summary



Tools for Predicting Politics


Logical Foundation of the Model


Estimating the Model


Developing the Data


Model Output


Prediction and International Relations


Limitations



The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property


Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution


Predicting the Cold War's End


Counterfactual Histories


Conclusions



Global Democratization


Helsinki: The New International Environment


The Global Swing toward Democracy


EUM and Governance, 1980-2000


EUM and the Future of Democratization


Random Shocks and Robustness



Democratization and Domestic Pressures


Simulating Russia's Future


Simulating China's Future



War in the Future


Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income


Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration


Democracy, War, and the Future


Flash Points and the Future


Conclusions


Appendix


Endnotes


References