Predicting Politics

ISBN-10: 0814250947
ISBN-13: 9780814250945
Edition: N/A
List price: $34.95
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Book details

List price: $34.95
Publisher: Ohio State University Press
Publication date: 6/24/2002
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 170
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.25" long x 0.50" tall
Weight: 0.550
Language: English

Preface
Predicting Politics
Organization of the Book
A Shift from Realism?
Why Game Theory Analysis?
Social Forces as Context
Conclusion
Path Interdependence: An Illustration
Text of the Concordat of Worms
The Power of the Pope
A Brief Historical Review
The Model
Implications for Pope and King
Narrative Account of Evidence
The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment
Summary
Tools for Predicting Politics
Logical Foundation of the Model
Estimating the Model
Developing the Data
Model Output
Prediction and International Relations
Limitations
The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property
Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution
Predicting the Cold War's End
Counterfactual Histories
Conclusions
Global Democratization
Helsinki: The New International Environment
The Global Swing toward Democracy
EUM and Governance, 1980-2000
EUM and the Future of Democratization
Random Shocks and Robustness
Democratization and Domestic Pressures
Simulating Russia's Future
Simulating China's Future
War in the Future
Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income
Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration
Democracy, War, and the Future
Flash Points and the Future
Conclusions
Appendix
Endnotes
References

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