Anticipating Surprise Analysis for Strategic Warning

ISBN-10: 0761829520
ISBN-13: 9780761829522
Edition: N/A
Authors: Cynthia M. Grabo
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Description: Anticipating Surprise, originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts during the cold war, has been declassified and condensed, in order to provide wider audiences with an inside look at intelligence gathering and analysis. Since  More...

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Book details

List price: $45.99
Publisher: University Press of America, Incorporated
Publication date: 10/19/2004
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 184
Size: 5.75" wide x 8.75" long x 0.50" tall
Weight: 0.638
Language: English

Anticipating Surprise, originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts during the cold war, has been declassified and condensed, in order to provide wider audiences with an inside look at intelligence gathering and analysis. Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America, intelligence collection and analysis has been hotly debated. Cynthia Grabo suggests ways of improving warning assessments which better convey warnings to policymakers and military commanders--who are responsible for taking appropriate action to avert disaster.

Forward
Editor's Preface
Introduction
The Role of Warning Intelligence
General Nature of the Problem
What is Warning
Intentions versus Capabilities
Introduction to the Analytical Method
Indicator Lists: Compiling Indications
Fundamentals of Indications Analysis
Specifics of the Analytical Method
Military Indications and Warning
The Nature of Military Indicators
Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations
Logistics is the Queen of Battles
Other Factors in Combat Preparations
Political Factors for Warning
Ambiguity of Political Indicator
A Problem of Perception
Considerations in Political Warning
Warning from the Totality of Evidence
The Relative Weight of Political and Military Factors
Isolating the Critical Facts and Indications
Some Guidelines for Assessing the Meaning of Evidence
Reconstructing the Adversary's Decisionmaking Process
Surprise and Timing
Principal Factors in Timing and Surprise
Examples of Assessing Timing
Warning is Not a Forecast of Imminence
The Problem of Deception
Infrequency and Neglect of Deception
Principles, Techniques and Effectiveness of Deception
Types of Deception
What Can We Do About It?
Judgments and Policy
Facts Don't "Speak for Themselves"
What Do Top Consumers Need, and Want, to Know?
Intelligence in Support of Policy
Assessing Probabilities
Improving Warning Assessments: Some Conclusions
Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting
General Warning Principles
Most Frequent Impediments to Warning
Index

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