Gamble - Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election

ISBN-10: 0691156883

ISBN-13: 9780691156880

Edition: N/A

List price: $19.95 Buy it from $1.95
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Description:

"Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest--and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election--with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis. Instead, they draw on extensive quantitative data about the economy, public opinion, news coverage, and political advertising to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. Combining this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, they provide the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written--and the only book of its kind.Which mattered more--Barack Obama's midsummer ad blitz or the election year's economic growth? How many voters actually changed their minds--and was it ever enough to sway the outcome? The Gamble answers important questions like these by looking at the interplay between the candidates' strategic choices--the ads, speeches, rallies, and debates--and the chance circumstances of the election, especially the economy. In the Republican primary, the book shows, the electioneering and the media's restless attention did matter, producing a string of frontrunners. But when Obama and Mitt Romney finally squared off in the general election, there were few real game-changers. The candidates' billion-dollar campaigns were important but largely cancelled each other out, opening the way for Obama to do what incumbents usually do when running amid even modest economic growth: win.An election book unlike any other, The Gamble is a must-read for political junkies, analysts, journalists, consultants, and academics.
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Book details

List price: $19.95
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Publication date: 10/4/2013
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 344
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.386
Language: English

John Sides (George Washington University) studies elections, political campaigns, voter behavior, and public opinion. His work has appeared in numerous major journals. He is a founder of and contributor to The Monkey Cage, a popular political science blog.

Lynn Vavreck is associate professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles. She is coeditor of "Campaign Reform: Insights and Evidence" and coprincipal investigator of the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project.

List of Figures and Tables
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Ante Up
The Hand You're Dealt
Random, or Romney?
All In
High Rollers
The Action
The Winning Hand
Cashing In
Appendixes
Notes
Index
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