Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

Name: Decision Analysis for Management Judgment
Price: 5.42 USD
Availability: InStock
ISBN: 9780470861080

ISBN-10: 0470861088

ISBN-13: 9780470861080

Edition: 3rd 2004 (Revised)

Authors: Paul Goodwin, George Wright

List price: $77.95

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Description:

Decision analysis can play a valuable role in helping people to make decisions that involve risks or multiple objectives, but potential users are often deterred by the presentation of the subject in a mathematical form. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators. Written in a user-friendly style, with little or no mathematical notation, and using practical examples, the book is unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It demonstrates the pitfalls associated with unaided decision making and shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in structured ways so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for…

Book details

List price: $77.95
Edition: 3rd
Copyright year: 2004
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 3/1/2004
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 492
Size: 7.00" wide x 9.75" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.782
Language: English



Foreword


Preface


Introduction


How people make decisions involving multiple objectives


Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART


Introduction to probability


Decision making under uncertainty


Decision trees and influence diagrams


Applying simulation to decision problems


Revising judgments in the light of new information


Biases in probability assessment


Methods for eliciting probabilities


Risk and uncertainty management


Decisions involving groups of individuals


Resource allocation and negotiation problems


Decision framing and cognitive inertia


Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty


The analytic hierarchy process


Alternative decision-support systems


Suggested answers to selected questions


Index