Failure of Risk Management Why It's Broken and How to Fix It

ISBN-10: 0470387955

ISBN-13: 9780470387955

Edition: 2009

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Book details

List price: $39.99
Copyright year: 2009
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Limited
Publication date: 5/15/2009
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 304
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.25" long x 1.25" tall
Weight: 1.254
Language: English

Preface
Acknowledgments
An Introduction to the Crisis
Healthy Skepticism for Risk Management
Common Mode Failure
What Counts as Risk Management
Anecdote: The Risk of Outsourcing Drug Manufacturing
What Failure Means
Scope and Objectives of This Book
Risk Management: A Very Short Introduction to Where We've Been and Where (We Think) We Are
The Entire History of Risk Management (in 800 Words or Less)
Methods of Assessing Risks
Risk Mitigation
The State of Risk Management According to Surveys
How Do We Know What Works?
An Assessment of Self-Assessments
Potential Objective Evaluations of Risk Management
What We May Find
Why It's Broken
The "Four Horsemen" of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts to Prevent an Apocalypse
Actuaries
War Quants: How World War II Changed Risk Analysis Forever
Economists
Management Consulting: How a Power Tie and a Good Pitch Changed Risk Management
Comparing the Horsemen
Major Risk Management Problems to Be Addressed
An Ivory Tower of Babel: Fixing the Confusion about Risk
The Frank Knight Definition
Risk as Volatility
A Construction Engineering Definition
Risk as Expected Loss
Risk as a Good Thing
Risk Analysis and Risk Management versus Decision Analysis
Enriching the Lexicon
The Limits of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know about Uncertainty
The Right Stuff: How a Group of Psychologists Saved Risk Analysis
Mental Math: Why We Shouldn't Trust the Numbers in Our Heads
"Catastrophic" Overconfidence
The Mind of "Aces": Possible Causes and Consequences of Overconfidence
Inconsistencies and Artifacts: What Shouldn't Matter Does
Answers to Calibration Tests
Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method and Why It Doesn't Work
A Basic Course in Scoring Methods (Actually, It's the Advanced Course, Too-There's Not Much to Know)
Does That Come in "Medium"?: Why Ambiguity Does Not Offset Uncertainty
Unintended Effects of Scales: What You Don't Know Can Hurt You
Clarification of Scores and Preferences: Different but Similar-Sounding Methods and Similar but Different-Sounding Methods
Black Swans, Red Herrings, and Invisible Dragons: Overcoming Conceptual Obstacles to Improved Risk Management
Risk and Righteous Indignation: The Belief that Quantitative Risk Analysis Is Impossible
A Note about Black Swans
Frequentist versus Subjectivist
We're Special: The Belief that Risk Analysis Might Work, But Not Here
Where Even the Quants Go Wrong: Common and Fundamental Errors in Quantitative Models
Introduction to Monte Carlo Concepts
Survey of Monte Carlo Users
The Risk Paradox
The Measurement Inversion
Where's the Science? The Lack of Empiricism in Risk Models
Financial Models and the Shape of Disaster: Why Normal Isn't so Normal
Following Your Inner Cow: The Problem with Correlations
"That's Too Uncertain": How Modelers Justify Excluding the Biggest Risks
Is Monte Carlo Too Complicated?
How to Fix It
The Language of Uncertain Systems: The First Step Toward Improved Risk Management
Getting Your Probabilities Calibrated
The Model of Uncertainty: Decomposing Risk with Monte Carlos
Decomposing Probabilities: Thinking about Chance the Way You Think about a Budget
A Few Modeling Principles
Modeling the Mechanism
The Outward-Looking Modeler: Adding Empirical Science to Risk
Why Your Model Won't Behave
Empirical Inputs
Introduction to Bayes: One Way to Get around that "Limited Data for Disasters" Problem
Self-Examinations for Modelers Who Care about Quality
The Risk Community: Intra-and Extraorganizational Issues of Risk Management
Getting Organized
Managing the Global Probability Model
Incentives for a Calibrated Culture
Extraorganizational Issues: Solutions beyond Your Office Building
Miscellaneous Topics
Final Thoughts on Quantitative Models and Better Decisions
Appendix Calibration Tests and Answers
Index
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