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| Preface | |
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| Introduction and Overview | |
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| Some Puzzles and Problems | |
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| An Overview of the Book | |
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| Notes | |
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| Representing Uncertainty | |
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| Possible Worlds | |
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| Probability Measures | |
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| Justifying Probability | |
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| Lower and Upper Probabilities | |
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| Dempster-Shafer Belief Functions | |
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| Possibility Measures | |
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| Ranking Functions | |
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| Relative Likelihood | |
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| Plausibility Measures | |
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| Choosing a Representation | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| Updating Beliefs | |
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| Updating Knowledge | |
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| Probabilistic Conditioning | |
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| Justifying Probabilistic Conditioning | |
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| Bayes' Rule | |
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| Conditioning with Sets of Probabilities | |
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| Evidence | |
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| Conditioning Inner and Outer Measures | |
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| Conditioning Belief Functions | |
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| Conditioning Possibility Measures | |
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| Conditioning Ranking Functions | |
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| Conditioning Plausibility Measures | |
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| Constructing Conditional Plausibility Measures | |
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| Algebraic Conditional Plausibility Spaces | |
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| Jeffrey's Rule | |
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| Relative Entropy | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| Independence and Bayesian Networks | |
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| Probabilistic Independence | |
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| Probabilistic Conditional Independence | |
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| Independence for Plausibility Measures | |
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| Random Variables | |
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| Bayesian Networks | |
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| Qualitative Bayesian Networks | |
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| Quantitative Bayesian Networks | |
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| Independencies in Bayesian Networks | |
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| Plausibilistic Bayesian Networks | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| Expectation | |
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| Expectation for Probability Measures | |
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| Expectation for Other Notions of Likelihood | |
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| Expectation for Sets of Probability Measures | |
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| Expectation for Belief Function | |
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| Inner and Outer Expectation | |
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| Expectation for Possibility Measures and Ranking Functions | |
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| Plausibilistic Expectation | |
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| Decision Theory | |
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| The Basic Framework | |
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| Decision Rules | |
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| Generalized Expected Utility | |
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| Conditional Expectation | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| Multi-Agent Systems | |
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| Epistemic Frames | |
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| Probability Frames | |
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| Multi-Agent Systems | |
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| From Probability on Runs to Probability Assignments | |
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| Markovian Systems | |
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| Protocols | |
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| Using Protocols to Specify Situations | |
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| A Listener-Teller Protocol | |
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| The Second-Ace Puzzle | |
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| The Monty Hall Puzzle | |
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| When Conditioning Is Appropriate | |
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| Non-SDP Systems | |
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| Plausibility Systems | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| Logics for Reasoning about Uncertainty | |
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| Propositional Logic | |
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| Modal Epistemic Logic | |
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| Syntax and Semantics | |
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| Properties of Knowledge | |
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| Axiomatizing Knowledge | |
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| A Digression: The Role of Syntax | |
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| Reasoning about Probability: The Measurable Case | |
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| Reasoning about Other Quantitative Representations of Likelihood | |
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| Reasoning about Relative Likelihood | |
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| Reasoning about Knowledge and Probability | |
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| Reasoning about Independence | |
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| Reasoning about Expectation | |
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| Syntax and Semantics | |
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| Expressive Power | |
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| Axiomatizations | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| Beliefs, Defaults, and Counterfactuals | |
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| Belief | |
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| Knowledge and Belief | |
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| Characterizing Default Reasoning | |
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| Semantics for Defaults | |
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| Probabilistic Semantics | |
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| Using Possibility Measures, Ranking Functions, and Preference Orders | |
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| Using Plausibility Measures | |
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| Beyond System P | |
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| Conditional Logic | |
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| Reasoning about Counterfactuals | |
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| Combining Probability and Counterfactuals | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| Belief Revision | |
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| The Circuit-Diagnosis Problem | |
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| Belief-Change Systems | |
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| Belief Revision | |
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| Belief Revision and Conditional Logic | |
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| Epistemic States and Iterated Revision | |
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| Markovian Belief Revision | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| First-Order Modal Logic | |
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| First-Order Logic | |
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| First-Order Reasoning about Knowledge | |
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| First-Order Reasoning about Probability | |
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| First-Order Conditional Logic | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| From Statistics to Beliefs | |
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| Reference Classes | |
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| The Random-Worlds Approach | |
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| Properties of Random Worlds | |
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| Random Worlds and Default Reasoning | |
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| Random Worlds and Maximum Entropy | |
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| Problems with the Random-Worlds Approach | |
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| Exercises | |
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| Notes | |
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| Final Words | |
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| Notes | |
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| References | |
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| Glossary of Symbols | |