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| Preface | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Framework for Modeling, Estimation, and Management of Animal Populations | |
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| Introduction to Population Ecology | |
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| Some Definitions | |
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| Population Dynamics | |
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| Factors Affecting Populations | |
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| Management of Animal Populations | |
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| Individuals, Fitness, and Life History Characteristics | |
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| Community Dynamics | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Scientific Process in Animal Ecology | |
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| Causation in Animal Ecology | |
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| Approaches to the Investigation of Causes | |
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| Scientific Methods | |
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| Hypothesis Confirmation | |
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| Inductive Logic in Scientific Method | |
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| Statistical Inference | |
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| Investigating Complementary Hypotheses | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Models and the Investigation of Populations | |
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| Types of Biological Models | |
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| Keys to Successful Model Use | |
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| Uses of Models in Population Biology | |
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| Determinants of Model Utility | |
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| Hypotheses, Models, and Science | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Animal Ecology | |
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| Statistical Distributions | |
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| Parameter Estimation | |
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| Hypothesis Testing | |
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| Information-Theoretic Approaches | |
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| Bayesian Extension of Likelihood Theory | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Survey Sampling and the Estimation of Population Parameters | |
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| Sampling Issues | |
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| Features of a Sampling Design | |
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| Simple Random and Stratified Random Sampling | |
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| Other Sampling Approaches | |
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| Common Problems in Sampling Designs | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Design of Experiments in Animal Ecology | |
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| Principles of Experimental Design | |
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| Completely Randomized Designs | |
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| Randomized Block Designs | |
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| Covariation and Analysis of Covariance | |
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| Hierarchical Designs | |
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| Random Effects and Nested Designs | |
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| Statistical Power and Experimental Design | |
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| Constrained Experimental Designs and Quasi-Experiments | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Dynamic Modeling of Animal Populations | |
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| Principles of Model Development and Assessment | |
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| Modeling Goals | |
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| Attributes of Population Models | |
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| Describing Population Models | |
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| Constructing a Population Model | |
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| Model Assessment | |
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| A Systematic Approach to the Modeling of Animal Populations | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Traditional Models of Population Dynamics | |
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| Density-Independent Growth--The Exponential Model | |
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| Density-Dependent Growth--The Logistic Model | |
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| Cohort Models | |
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| Models with Age Structure | |
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| Models with Size Structure | |
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| Models with Geographic Structure | |
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| Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey Models | |
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| Models of Competing Populations | |
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| A General Model for Interacting Species | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Model Identification with Time Series Data | |
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| Model Identification Based on Ordinary Least Squares | |
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| Other Measures of Model Fit | |
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| Correlated Estimates of Population Size | |
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| Optimal Identification | |
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| Identifying Models with Population Size as a Function of Time | |
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| Identifying Models Using Lagrangian Multipliers | |
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| Stability of Parameter Estimates | |
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| Identifying System Properties in the Absence of a Specified Model | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Stochastic Processes in Population Models | |
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| Bernoulli Counting Processes | |
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| Poisson Counting Processes | |
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| Discrete Markov Processes | |
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| Continuous Markov Processes | |
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| Semi-Markov Processes | |
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| Markov Decision Processes | |
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| Brownian Motion | |
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| Other Stochastic Processes | |
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| Discussion | |
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| The Use of Models in Conservation and Management | |
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| Dynamics of Harvested Populations | |
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| Conservation and Extinction of Populations | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Estimation Methods for Animal Populations | |
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| Estimating Abundance Based on Counts | |
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| Overview of Abundance Estimation | |
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| A Canonical Population Estimator | |
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| Population Censuses | |
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| Complete Detectability of Individuals on Sample Units of Equal Area | |
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| Complete Detectability of Individuals on Sample Units of Unequal Area | |
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| Partial Detectability of Individuals on Sample Units | |
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| Indices to Population Abundance or Density | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Estimating Abundance with Distance-Based Methods | |
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| Point-to-Object Methods | |
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| Line Transect Sampling | |
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| Point Sampling | |
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| Design of Line Transect and Point Sampling Studies | |
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| Other Issues | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Estimating Abundance for Closed Populations with Mark-Recapture Methods | |
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| Two-Sample Lincoln-Petersen Estimator | |
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| K-Sample Capture-Recapture Models | |
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| Density Estimation with Capture-Recapture | |
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| Removal Methods | |
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| Change-in-Ratio Methods | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Estimation of Demographic Parameters | |
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| Detectability and Demographic Rate Parameters | |
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| Analysis of Age Frequencies | |
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| Analysis of Discrete Survival and Nest Success Data | |
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| Analysis of Failure Times | |
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| Random Effects and Known-Fate Data | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Estimation of Survival Rates with Band Recoveries | |
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| Single-Age Models | |
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| Multiple-Age Models | |
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| Reward Studies for Estimating Reporting Rates | |
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| Analysis of Band Recoveries for Nonharvested Species | |
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| Poststratification of Recoveries and Analysis of Movements | |
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| Design of Banding Studies | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Estimating Survival, Movement, and Other State Transitions with Mark-Recapture Methods | |
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| Single-Age Models | |
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| Multiple-Age Models | |
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| Multistate Models | |
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| Reverse-Time Models | |
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| Mark-Recapture with Auxiliary Data | |
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| Study Design | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Estimating Abundance and Recruitment with Mark-Recapture Methods | |
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| Data Structure | |
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| Jolly-Seber Approach | |
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| Superpopulation Approach | |
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| Pradel's Temporal Symmetry Approach | |
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| Relationships among Approaches | |
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| Study Design | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Combining Closed and Open Mark-Recapture Models: The Robust Design | |
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| Data Structure | |
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| Ad Hoc Approach | |
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| Likelihood-Based Approach | |
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| Special Estimation Problems | |
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| Study Design | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Estimation of Community Parameters | |
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| An Analogy between Populations and Communities | |
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| Estimation of Species Richness | |
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| Estimating Parameters of Community Dynamics | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Decision Analysis for Animal Populations | |
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| Optimal Decision Making in Population Biology | |
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| Optimization and Population Dynamics | |
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| Objective Functions | |
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| Stationary Optimization under Equilibrium Conditions | |
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| Stationary Optimization under Nonequilibrium Conditions | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Traditional Approaches to Optimal Decision Analysis | |
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| The Geometry of Optimization | |
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| Unconstrained Optimization | |
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| Classical Programming | |
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| Nonlinear Programming | |
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| Linear Programming | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Modern Approaches to Optimal Decision Analysis | |
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| Calculus of Variations | |
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| Pontryagin's Maximum Principle | |
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| Dynamic Programming | |
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| Heuristic Approaches | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Uncertainty, Learning, and Decision Analysis | |
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| Decision Analysis in Natural Resource Conservation | |
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| General Framework for Decision Analysis | |
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| Uncertainty and the Control of Dynamic Resources | |
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| Optimal Control with a Single Model | |
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| Optimal Control with Multiple Models | |
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| Adaptive Optimization and Learning | |
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| Expected Value of Perfect Information | |
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| Partial Observability | |
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| Generalizations of Adaptive Optimization | |
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| Accounting for All Sources of Uncertainty | |
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| "Passive" Adaptive Optimization | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Case Study: Management of the Sport Harvest of North American Waterfowl | |
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| Background and History | |
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| Components of a Regulatory Process | |
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| Adaptive Harvest Management | |
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| Modeling Population Dynamics | |
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| Harvest Objectives | |
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| Regulatory Alternatives | |
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| Identifying Optimal Regulations | |
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| Some Ongoing Issues in Waterfowl Harvest Management | |
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| Discussion | |
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| Conditional Probability and Bayes' Theorem | |
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| Matrix Algebra | |
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| Definitions | |
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| Matrix Addition and Multiplication | |
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| Matrix Determinants | |
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| Inverse of a Matrix | |
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| Orthogonal and Orthonormal Matrices | |
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| Trace of a Matrix | |
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| Eigenvectors and Eigenvalues | |
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| Linear and Quadratic Forms | |
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| Positive-Definite and Semidefinite Matrices | |
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| Matrix Differentiation | |
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| Differential Equations | |
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| First-Order Linear Homogeneous Equations | |
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| Nonlinear Homogeneous Equations--Stability Analysis | |
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| Graphical Methods | |
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| Difference Equations | |
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| First-Order Linear Homogeneous Equations | |
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| Nonlinear Homogeneous Equations--Stability Analysis | |
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| Some Probability Distributions and Their Properties | |
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| Discrete Distributions | |
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| Continuous Distributions | |
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| Methods for Estimating Statistical Variation | |
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| Distribution-Based Variance Estimation | |
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| Empirical Variance Estimation | |
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| Estimating Variances and Covariances with the Information Matrix | |
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| Approximating Variance with the Delta Method | |
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| Jackknife Estimators of Mean and Variance | |
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| Bootstrap Estimation | |
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| Computer Software for Population and Community Estimation | |
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| Estimation of Abundance and Density for Closed Populations | |
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| Estimation of Abundance and Demographic Parameters for Open Populations | |
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| Estimation of Community Parameters | |
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| Software Availability | |
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| The Mathematics of Optimization | |
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| Unconstrained Optimization | |
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| Classical Programming | |
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| Nonlinear Programming | |
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| Linear Programming | |
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| Calculus of Variations | |
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| Pontryagin's Maximum Principle | |
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| Dynamic Programming | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |