Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't

Name: Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't
Availability: InStock
ISBN: 9781594204111

ISBN-10: 159420411X

ISBN-13: 9781594204111

Edition: 2012

Authors: Nate Silver

List price: $27.95

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Description:

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty.The New York Timesnow publishesFiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more…

Book details

List price: $27.95
Copyright year: 2012
Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date: 9/27/2012
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 544
Size: 6.35" wide x 9.53" long x 1.19" tall
Weight: 1.738
Language: English



Introduction



A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction



Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit?



All I Care About is W's and Lï¿½s



For Years You've Been Telling Us that Rain is Green



Desperately Seeking Signal



How to Drown in Three Feet of Water



Role Models



Less and Less and Less Wrong



Rage Against the Machines



The Poker Bubble



If You Can't Beat'em …



A Climate of Healthy Skepticism



What You Don't Know Can Hurt You


Conclusion


Acknowledgments


Notes


Index