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Intelligence Analysis A Target-Centric Approach

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ISBN-10: 1452206120

ISBN-13: 9781452206127

Edition: 4th 2013 (Revised)

Authors: Robert M. Clark

List price: $78.00
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Description:

Robert M. Clark explains that a collaborative, target-centric approach allows for more effective analysis, while better meeting customer needs.
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Book details

List price: $78.00
Edition: 4th
Copyright year: 2013
Publisher: CQ Press
Publication date: 9/25/2012
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 432
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.00" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 1.298
Language: English

Robert M. Clark is an independent consultant performing space systems threat analyses for the US Intelligence Community. He is also a faculty member of the Intelligence and Security Academy and a professor of intelligence studies at the University of Maryland University College. Dr. Clark served in the United States Air Force as a SIGINT collector and intelligence officer, reaching the rank of lieutenant colonel. At CIA, he held a variety of assignments that involved supporting the collection, processing and exploitation of HUMINT, SIGINT, and IMINT. As the President and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, he managed collection programs in the SIGINT, IMINT, and…    

Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Preface
Introduction
Why We Fail
Failure to Share Information
Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectively
Failure of the Customer to Act on Intelligence
What the Book Is About
Summary
Introduction to Target-Centric Analysis
The Intelligence Process
The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict
The Traditional Intelligence Cycle
Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process
The Target
The Target as a Complex System
The Complex Target as a Network
Summary
Defining the Intelligence Problem
Statement of the Problem
The Problem Definition Product
Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task
Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems
Example: Denning the Counterintelligence Problem
Summary
An Analysis Approach to the Target
The Concept of a Model
Using Target Models for Analysis
Counterintelligence Analysis
Targets
Operations
Linkages
Target Model Combinations
Submodels
Collateral Models
Summary
The Analytic Spectrum
The Conflict Spectrum
Strategic Intelligence
Operational Intelligence
Tactical Intelligence
The Temporal Analysis Spectrum
Long-Term Research Versus Current Intelligence
The Tyranny of Current Intelligence
Fusion Centers
Capabilities, Plans, and Intentions
Indications and Warning
Summary
Synthesis: Creating the Model
Overview of Models in Intelligence
Creating a Conceptual Model
Generic Models
Lists
Curves
Comparative Modeling (Benchmarking)
Pattern Models
Relationship Models
Profiles
Process Models
Simulation Models
Combination Models
Geospatial Models
Human Terrain Models
Space-Time Models
Geographic Profiling
Summary
Sources of Intelligence Information
Existing Reports
A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources
Literal Intelligence Sources
Open Source
Human Intelligence
Communications Intelligence
Cyber Collection
Nonliteral Intelligence
Remote and In Situ Sensing
Imaging and Spectral Sensing
Passive Radiofrequency Intelligence
Radar Intelligence
Geophysical and Nuclear Intelligence
Materiel and Materials Collection
Biometrics
Summary
Evaluating and Collating Data
Evaluating Evidence
Evaluating the Source
Evaluating the Communications Channel
Evaluating the Credentials of Evidence
Pitfalls in Evaluating Evidence
Combining Evidence
Convergent and Divergent Evidence
Redundant Evidence
Formal Methods for Combining Evidence
Summary
Collection Strategies
The U.S. Collection Management Problem
The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationship
Identifying Gaps
Developing the Collection Strategy
Using Existing Collection Assets
Dealing with Enigmas
Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps
Executing Collection Strategies
Summary
Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Denial and Deception
Defense Against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods
Higher Level Denial and Deception
The Man Who Never Was
The Cuban Missile Crisis
The Farewell Dossier
The Indian Nuclear Test
Countering Denial and Deception
Signaling
Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D
Summary
Predictive Analysis
Analytic Methodologies
Structured Argumentation
Wigmore's Charting Method
Bayesian Techniques for Combining Evidence
Competitive and Alternative Target Models
Competitive Analysis
Alternative Analysis
The Role of Information Technology
Summary
Prediction
Introduction to Prediction
Convergent and Divergent Phenomena
The Predictive Approach
Introduction to Force Synthesis/Analysis
Qualitative Force Synthesis/Analysis
Scenarios
Why Use Scenarios?
Types of Scenarios
Scenario Perspectives
How to Construct Scenarios
Indicators and the Role of Intelligence
A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020
Summary
Predictive Techniques
Extrapolation
Extrapolation Techniques
Correlation and Regression
Limitations of Extrapolation
Projection
Generating Alternatives
Influence Trees or Diagrams
Influence Nets
Making Probability Estimates
Sensitivity Analysis
Forecasting
The Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting
Techniques and Analytic Tools of Forecasting
Evaluating Forecasts
Summary
Shaping Forces
Inertia
Countervailing Forces
Contamination
Synergy
Feedback
Strength
Time Delay
Regulation
Summary
Organizational Analysis
Structure
Organizational Size and Capabilities
Type of Structure
Network Analysis
Function
Rational Aspect
Cultural Aspect
Emotional Aspect
Collective Decision Making
Process
Operations Research
Schedule
Cost
Summary
Technology and Systems Analysis
Technology Assessment
Future Performance
Innovation
Technology Use, Transfer, and Diffusion
Systems Analysis
Future Systems
Performance Analyses
Systems Simulation
Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis
Creating and Running a Simulation
Summary
The Intelligence Customer
Introduction
Policymakers
Congress
Business Leaders
Military Leadership
Military Operations
Homeland Security
Law Enforcement
What All Customers Want
Analyst-Customer Interaction
Analyst as Communicator: Getting the Customer to Understand the Message
Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In
The Defense Analysis Challenge
Presenting Analysis Results
Support Every Analytic Conclusion
Write or Brief with a Purpose
Separate Facts from Analysis
Get to the Point
Write or Brief to Inform, Not to Impress
Make It Easy and Enjoyable to Read or Listen To
Write as You Would Talk
Avoid Acronyms
Use Graphics
Summary
Managing Analysis
Introduction
Who Are the Customers, and What Do They Need?
What Should the Unit Produce?
Structure
Topical or Regional Structure?
Fusion Centers
To Firewall or Not to Firewall
Process
The Analyst
Recruiting and Developing Analysts
Planning the Analysis Project
Managing Team Efforts
Peer and Management Review
Collaborative Tools
Sharing Versus Protection of Sources and Methods
Limits and Boundaries
Limits
Boundaries
Function
Pressures
Some Causes of Failures
Evaluating the Product
Summary
A Tale of Two NIEs
The Yugoslavia NIE
The Setting
First Draft (the "Muddle Through" NIE)
Second Draft: Force Field Analysis
The Customer View
The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE
Poor Problem Definition
Poor Evaluation of Sources and Evidence
Failure to Consider Alternative Target Models
Poor Analytic Methodology
Poor Interaction with Collectors and Customers
Example Project Plan
Problem Definition
Pr�cis
Research Plan
Index
About the Author
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