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Tables, Figures, and Boxes | |
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Preface | |
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Introduction | |
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Why We Fail | |
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Failure to Share Information | |
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Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectively | |
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Failure of the Customer to Act on Intelligence | |
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What the Book Is About | |
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Summary | |
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Introduction to Target-Centric Analysis | |
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The Intelligence Process | |
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The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict | |
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The Traditional Intelligence Cycle | |
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Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process | |
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The Target | |
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The Target as a Complex System | |
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The Complex Target as a Network | |
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Summary | |
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Defining the Intelligence Problem | |
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Statement of the Problem | |
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The Problem Definition Product | |
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Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task | |
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Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems | |
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Example: Denning the Counterintelligence Problem | |
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Summary | |
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An Analysis Approach to the Target | |
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The Concept of a Model | |
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Using Target Models for Analysis | |
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Counterintelligence Analysis | |
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Targets | |
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Operations | |
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Linkages | |
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Target Model Combinations | |
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Submodels | |
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Collateral Models | |
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Summary | |
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The Analytic Spectrum | |
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The Conflict Spectrum | |
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Strategic Intelligence | |
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Operational Intelligence | |
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Tactical Intelligence | |
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The Temporal Analysis Spectrum | |
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Long-Term Research Versus Current Intelligence | |
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The Tyranny of Current Intelligence | |
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Fusion Centers | |
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Capabilities, Plans, and Intentions | |
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Indications and Warning | |
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Summary | |
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Synthesis: Creating the Model | |
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Overview of Models in Intelligence | |
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Creating a Conceptual Model | |
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Generic Models | |
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Lists | |
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Curves | |
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Comparative Modeling (Benchmarking) | |
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Pattern Models | |
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Relationship Models | |
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Profiles | |
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Process Models | |
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Simulation Models | |
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Combination Models | |
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Geospatial Models | |
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Human Terrain Models | |
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Space-Time Models | |
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Geographic Profiling | |
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Summary | |
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Sources of Intelligence Information | |
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Existing Reports | |
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A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources | |
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Literal Intelligence Sources | |
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Open Source | |
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Human Intelligence | |
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Communications Intelligence | |
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Cyber Collection | |
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Nonliteral Intelligence | |
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Remote and In Situ Sensing | |
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Imaging and Spectral Sensing | |
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Passive Radiofrequency Intelligence | |
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Radar Intelligence | |
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Geophysical and Nuclear Intelligence | |
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Materiel and Materials Collection | |
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Biometrics | |
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Summary | |
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Evaluating and Collating Data | |
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Evaluating Evidence | |
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Evaluating the Source | |
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Evaluating the Communications Channel | |
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Evaluating the Credentials of Evidence | |
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Pitfalls in Evaluating Evidence | |
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Combining Evidence | |
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Convergent and Divergent Evidence | |
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Redundant Evidence | |
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Formal Methods for Combining Evidence | |
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Summary | |
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Collection Strategies | |
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The U.S. Collection Management Problem | |
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The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationship | |
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Identifying Gaps | |
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Developing the Collection Strategy | |
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Using Existing Collection Assets | |
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Dealing with Enigmas | |
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Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps | |
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Executing Collection Strategies | |
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Summary | |
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Denial, Deception, and Signaling | |
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Denial and Deception | |
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Defense Against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods | |
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Higher Level Denial and Deception | |
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The Man Who Never Was | |
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The Cuban Missile Crisis | |
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The Farewell Dossier | |
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The Indian Nuclear Test | |
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Countering Denial and Deception | |
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Signaling | |
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Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D | |
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Summary | |
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Predictive Analysis | |
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Analytic Methodologies | |
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Structured Argumentation | |
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Wigmore's Charting Method | |
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Bayesian Techniques for Combining Evidence | |
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Competitive and Alternative Target Models | |
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Competitive Analysis | |
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Alternative Analysis | |
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The Role of Information Technology | |
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Summary | |
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Prediction | |
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Introduction to Prediction | |
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Convergent and Divergent Phenomena | |
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The Predictive Approach | |
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Introduction to Force Synthesis/Analysis | |
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Qualitative Force Synthesis/Analysis | |
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Scenarios | |
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Why Use Scenarios? | |
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Types of Scenarios | |
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Scenario Perspectives | |
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How to Construct Scenarios | |
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Indicators and the Role of Intelligence | |
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A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020 | |
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Summary | |
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Predictive Techniques | |
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Extrapolation | |
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Extrapolation Techniques | |
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Correlation and Regression | |
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Limitations of Extrapolation | |
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Projection | |
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Generating Alternatives | |
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Influence Trees or Diagrams | |
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Influence Nets | |
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Making Probability Estimates | |
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Sensitivity Analysis | |
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Forecasting | |
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The Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting | |
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Techniques and Analytic Tools of Forecasting | |
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Evaluating Forecasts | |
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Summary | |
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Shaping Forces | |
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Inertia | |
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Countervailing Forces | |
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Contamination | |
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Synergy | |
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Feedback | |
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Strength | |
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Time Delay | |
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Regulation | |
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Summary | |
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Organizational Analysis | |
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Structure | |
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Organizational Size and Capabilities | |
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Type of Structure | |
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Network Analysis | |
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Function | |
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Rational Aspect | |
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Cultural Aspect | |
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Emotional Aspect | |
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Collective Decision Making | |
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Process | |
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Operations Research | |
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Schedule | |
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Cost | |
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Summary | |
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Technology and Systems Analysis | |
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Technology Assessment | |
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Future Performance | |
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Innovation | |
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Technology Use, Transfer, and Diffusion | |
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Systems Analysis | |
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Future Systems | |
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Performance Analyses | |
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Systems Simulation | |
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Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis | |
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Creating and Running a Simulation | |
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Summary | |
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The Intelligence Customer | |
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Introduction | |
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Policymakers | |
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Congress | |
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Business Leaders | |
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Military Leadership | |
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Military Operations | |
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Homeland Security | |
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Law Enforcement | |
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What All Customers Want | |
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Analyst-Customer Interaction | |
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Analyst as Communicator: Getting the Customer to Understand the Message | |
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Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In | |
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The Defense Analysis Challenge | |
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Presenting Analysis Results | |
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Support Every Analytic Conclusion | |
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Write or Brief with a Purpose | |
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Separate Facts from Analysis | |
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Get to the Point | |
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Write or Brief to Inform, Not to Impress | |
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Make It Easy and Enjoyable to Read or Listen To | |
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Write as You Would Talk | |
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Avoid Acronyms | |
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Use Graphics | |
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Summary | |
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Managing Analysis | |
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Introduction | |
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Who Are the Customers, and What Do They Need? | |
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What Should the Unit Produce? | |
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Structure | |
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Topical or Regional Structure? | |
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Fusion Centers | |
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To Firewall or Not to Firewall | |
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Process | |
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The Analyst | |
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Recruiting and Developing Analysts | |
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Planning the Analysis Project | |
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Managing Team Efforts | |
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Peer and Management Review | |
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Collaborative Tools | |
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Sharing Versus Protection of Sources and Methods | |
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Limits and Boundaries | |
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Limits | |
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Boundaries | |
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Function | |
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Pressures | |
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Some Causes of Failures | |
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Evaluating the Product | |
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Summary | |
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A Tale of Two NIEs | |
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The Yugoslavia NIE | |
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The Setting | |
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First Draft (the "Muddle Through" NIE) | |
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Second Draft: Force Field Analysis | |
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The Customer View | |
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The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE | |
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Poor Problem Definition | |
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Poor Evaluation of Sources and Evidence | |
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Failure to Consider Alternative Target Models | |
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Poor Analytic Methodology | |
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Poor Interaction with Collectors and Customers | |
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Example Project Plan | |
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Problem Definition | |
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Pr�cis | |
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Research Plan | |
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Index | |
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About the Author | |