| |
| |
| |
| Thinking and Deciding | |
| |
| |
| |
| Decision Making Is a Skill | |
| |
| |
| |
| Thinking: automatic and Controlled | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Computational Model of the Mind | |
| |
| |
| |
| Through the Darkest Psychoanalytical Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition | |
| |
| |
| |
| Quality of Choice: Rationality | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Invention of Modern Decision Theory | |
| |
| |
| |
| What Is Decision Making? | |
| |
| |
| |
| Definition of a Decision | |
| |
| |
| |
| Picturing Decisions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Decision Quality, Revisited | |
| |
| |
| |
| Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example | |
| |
| |
| |
| Over-Inclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Rationality of Considering Only the Future | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Rest of This Book | |
| |
| |
| |
| A General Framework for Judgment | |
| |
| |
| |
| A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction | |
| |
| |
| |
| Research With the Lens Model Framework | |
| |
| |
| |
| Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models | |
| |
| |
| |
| How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment? | |
| |
| |
| |
| Practical Implications of the Surprising Success of the Linear Model | |
| |
| |
| |
| Objections and Rebuttals | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Fundamental Judgment Strategy: Anchoring and Adjustment | |
| |
| |
| |
| Salient Values | |
| |
| |
| |
| Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment | |
| |
| |
| |
| Anchoring on Ourselves | |
| |
| |
| |
| Anchoring the Past in the Present | |
| |
| |
| |
| Judging Heuristically | |
| |
| |
| |
| Going Beyond the Information Given | |
| |
| |
| |
| Estimating Frequencies and probabilities | |
| |
| |
| |
| Availability of Memories | |
| |
| |
| |
| Biased Samples in Memory | |
| |
| |
| |
| Biased Sampling From Memory | |
| |
| |
| |
| Availability to the Imagination | |
| |
| |
| |
| From Availability to Probablility and Causality | |
| |
| |
| |
| Judgment by Similarity: Same Old Things | |
| |
| |
| |
| Representative Thinking | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Ratio Rule | |
| |
| |
| |
| Explanation-Based Judgments | |
| |
| |
| |
| Everyone Likes a Good Story | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Conjunction Probabliity Error (Again) | |
| |
| |
| |
| Judging From Explanations | |
| |
| |
| |
| Legal Scenarios: The Best Story Wins in the Courtroom | |
| |
| |
| |
| Scenarios About Ourselves | |
| |
| |
| |
| Scenarios About the Unthinkable | |
| |
| |
| |
| Hindsight: Reconstructing the Past | |
| |
| |
| |
| Sometimes It's Better to Forget | |
| |
| |
| |
| Chance and Cause | |
| |
| |
| |
| Misconceptions About Chance | |
| |
| |
| |
| Illusions of Control | |
| |
| |
| |
| Seeing Causal Structure Where It Isn't | |
| |
| |
| |
| Regression Toward the Mean | |
| |
| |
| |
| Reflections on Our Inability to Accept Randomness | |
| |
| |
| |
| Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty | |
| |
| |
| |
| What to Do About the Biases | |
| |
| |
| |
| Getting Started Thinking in Terms of Probabilities | |
| |
| |
| |
| Comprehending the Situation Being Judged | |
| |
| |
| |
| Testing for Rationality | |
| |
| |
| |
| How to Think About Inverse Probabilities | |
| |
| |
| |
| Avoiding Subadditivity and Conjunction Errors | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Other Side of the Coin: The Probability of a Disjunction of Events | |
| |
| |
| |
| Changing Our Minds: Bayes's Theorem | |
| |
| |
| |
| Statistical Decision Theory | |
| |
| |
| |
| Concluding Comment on Rationality | |
| |
| |
| |
| Evaluating Consequences: Fundamental Preferences | |
| |
| |
| |
| What Good is Happiness? | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Role of Emotions in Evaluations | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Value of Money | |
| |
| |
| |
| Decision Utility -- Predicting What We will Value | |
| |
| |
| |
| Constructing Values | |
| |
| |
| |
| From Preferences to Choices | |
| |
| |
| |
| Deliberate Choices Among Complex Alternatives | |
| |
| |
| |
| Ordering Alternatives | |
| |
| |
| |
| Grouping Alternatives | |
| |
| |
| |
| Choosing Alternatives | |
| |
| |
| |
| How to Make Good Choices | |
| |
| |
| |
| A Rational Decision Theory | |
| |
| |
| |
| Formally Defining Rationality | |
| |
| |
| |
| Making Theories Understandable -- The Axiomatic Method | |
| |
| |
| |
| Defining Rationality: Expected Utility Theory | |
| |
| |
| |
| Traditional Objections to the Axioms | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Shoulds and Dos of the System | |
| |
| |
| |
| Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis | |
| |
| |
| |
| A Descriptive Decision Theory | |
| |
| |
| |
| Non-expected Utility Theories | |
| |
| |
| |
| Gain-Loss Framing Effects | |
| |
| |
| |
| Loss Aversion | |
| |
| |
| |
| Look to the Future | |
| |
| |
| |
| What's Next? New Directions in Research on Judgment and Decision Making | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Neuroscience of Decisions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Emotions in Decision Making | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Rise of Experimental Methods to Study Dynamic Decisions | |
| |
| |
| |
| Do We Really Know Where We're Headed? | |
| |
| |
| |
| In Praise of Uncertianty | |
| |
| |
| |
| Uncertainty as Negative | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Illusion of Hedonic Certainty | |
| |
| |
| |
| The Price of Denying Uncertainty | |
| |
| |
| |
| Two Cheers for Uncertainty | |
| |
| |
| |
| Living With Uncertainty | |