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Oil Panic and the Global Crisis Predictions and Myths

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ISBN-10: 1405195487

ISBN-13: 9781405195485

Edition: 2010

Authors: Steven M. Gorelick

List price: $110.95
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Book details

List price: $110.95
Copyright year: 2010
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Limited
Publication date: 11/6/2009
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 256
Size: 7.25" wide x 10.25" long x 0.75" tall
Weight: 1.584
Language: English

#60;b#62;Steven M. Gorelick#60;/b#62; holds the Cyrus Fisher Tolman Professorship in the School of Earth Sciences at Stanford University, where he has been on the faculty for over 20 years. In 2005, he was named a Guggenheim Fellow for his study of global oil depletion. Professor Gorelick is a Fellow of both the American Geophysical Union and Geological Society of America, and he has been selected twice as a Fulbright Senior Scholar (1997 and 2008) for studies of water resources issues in Australia.

Preface
Acknowledgments
About Units
Getting Started: What Do You Think?
End of the Oil Era
Cause for Concern
Hubbert's Curve
The Appeal of Hubbert's Curve
Hubbert's Success
US Oil Dependence Since Peak Production
Chapters Ahead
Notes and References
The Global Oil Landscape
Introduction
Definitions
Petroleum Composition and Energy Density
Why a Barrel is a bbl
The Oil Business
OPEC
How Much Oil is There? The USGS Assessment
From the USGS Assessment to 2009
Reserves
Where is Oil Produced?
Where is Oil Consumed?
Oil Imports
After Oil is Produced
Oil Production Versus Consumption
Oil Quality
Oil Pricing by Quality
Gasoline
What Determines the Price of Gasoline at the Pump?
The Price of Gasoline
Gasoline Price Elasticity: What Happens When the Price Goes Up (or Down)?
Gasoline Price Variability
Points to Take Away
Notes and References
The Historical Resource Depletion Debate
The Malthusian Doctrine
The Limits to Growth
The Oil Panics of 1916 and 1918
Panic Revisited: The Oil Crisis of the 1970s
Arguments Supporting Global Oil Depletion
Declining Oil Production in Countries in Addition to That in the US
Production Exceeds Discoveries
Reserve and Endowment Estimates are Inflated
Industry Exaggeration of Reserves
Fewer Giant Fields Discovered and Production is Declining
Decline in Discovery and Oil Drilling Suggests Onset of Production Decline
Global Industrial Development and Oil Consumption
The Price of Oil is Increasing: Does This Indicate Scarcity?
Forecasts Support a Decline in Global Production Using Extensions to Hubbert's Approach
Summary
Notes and References
Counter-Arguments to Imminent Global Oil Depletion
Hubbert's Predicted Production Rates Were Accurate
US Oil Production
The Bell-Shaped Curve
US Natural Gas Production
Global Oil Production
A Decline in Production Necessarily Indicates Scarcity
Commodity Scarcity
Generalizing the Debate: Resource Economists versus Neo-Malthusians
Back to Oil
Scarcity Rent
Resource Assessments Provide Useful Endowment Estimates
The Missing Mass Balance
Counter-Argument to OPEC and Industry Exaggeration of Reserves
After So Much Exploration, There Is Little Oil Left to Be Found
US Oil: Reserves
US Oil: Discoveries
Global Oil: Reserves
Global Oil: Discoveries
Russian and Global Arctic Oil
The World Cannot Afford Increases in Oil Use as Developing Nations Demand More Oil
Future Demand of Developing Nations
Oil Expenditures in the World Economy
There Are No Substitutes for Oil
The Gold Resource Pyramid
The Oil Resource Pyramid
The US and Global Oil Resource Pyramids
Three Unconventional Oil Substitutes
US heavy oil
Global heavy oil
US oil sands
Global oil sands
US oil shale
Global oil shale
Fossil Fuel Conversion: The Role of Gas and Coal
The Importance of Diesel
Synthetic Fuel from Coal and Natural Gas
Natural Gas Resources
Coal Resources
Chapter Summary
Notes and References
Beyond Panic
The Non-Renewable Resource Model
Where is an Efficiency Gain Possible?
Will Increases in Efficiency Indeed Reduce Demand?
Two scenarios for developing nations
What Might Ultimately Substitute for Oil?
Cost of dependence on imported oil
Gasoline and atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions
Alternatives
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Leapfrogging to an ultimate substitute
Effects of a US move to oil alternatives
The State of Oil Resources
Ending Thoughts
Notes and References
Index