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| Preface | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| About Units | |
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| Getting Started: What Do You Think? | |
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| End of the Oil Era | |
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| Cause for Concern | |
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| Hubbert's Curve | |
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| The Appeal of Hubbert's Curve | |
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| Hubbert's Success | |
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| US Oil Dependence Since Peak Production | |
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| Chapters Ahead | |
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| Notes and References | |
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| The Global Oil Landscape | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Definitions | |
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| Petroleum Composition and Energy Density | |
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| Why a Barrel is a bbl | |
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| The Oil Business | |
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| OPEC | |
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| How Much Oil is There? The USGS Assessment | |
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| From the USGS Assessment to 2009 | |
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| Reserves | |
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| Where is Oil Produced? | |
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| Where is Oil Consumed? | |
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| Oil Imports | |
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| After Oil is Produced | |
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| Oil Production Versus Consumption | |
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| Oil Quality | |
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| Oil Pricing by Quality | |
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| Gasoline | |
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| What Determines the Price of Gasoline at the Pump? | |
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| The Price of Gasoline | |
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| Gasoline Price Elasticity: What Happens When the Price Goes Up (or Down)? | |
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| Gasoline Price Variability | |
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| Points to Take Away | |
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| Notes and References | |
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| The Historical Resource Depletion Debate | |
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| The Malthusian Doctrine | |
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| The Limits to Growth | |
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| The Oil Panics of 1916 and 1918 | |
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| Panic Revisited: The Oil Crisis of the 1970s | |
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| Arguments Supporting Global Oil Depletion | |
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| Declining Oil Production in Countries in Addition to That in the US | |
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| Production Exceeds Discoveries | |
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| Reserve and Endowment Estimates are Inflated | |
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| Industry Exaggeration of Reserves | |
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| Fewer Giant Fields Discovered and Production is Declining | |
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| Decline in Discovery and Oil Drilling Suggests Onset of Production Decline | |
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| Global Industrial Development and Oil Consumption | |
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| The Price of Oil is Increasing: Does This Indicate Scarcity? | |
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| Forecasts Support a Decline in Global Production Using Extensions to Hubbert's Approach | |
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| Summary | |
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| Notes and References | |
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| Counter-Arguments to Imminent Global Oil Depletion | |
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| Hubbert's Predicted Production Rates Were Accurate | |
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| US Oil Production | |
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| The Bell-Shaped Curve | |
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| US Natural Gas Production | |
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| Global Oil Production | |
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| A Decline in Production Necessarily Indicates Scarcity | |
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| Commodity Scarcity | |
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| Generalizing the Debate: Resource Economists versus Neo-Malthusians | |
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| Back to Oil | |
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| Scarcity Rent | |
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| Resource Assessments Provide Useful Endowment Estimates | |
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| The Missing Mass Balance | |
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| Counter-Argument to OPEC and Industry Exaggeration of Reserves | |
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| After So Much Exploration, There Is Little Oil Left to Be Found | |
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| US Oil: Reserves | |
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| US Oil: Discoveries | |
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| Global Oil: Reserves | |
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| Global Oil: Discoveries | |
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| Russian and Global Arctic Oil | |
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| The World Cannot Afford Increases in Oil Use as Developing Nations Demand More Oil | |
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| Future Demand of Developing Nations | |
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| Oil Expenditures in the World Economy | |
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| There Are No Substitutes for Oil | |
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| The Gold Resource Pyramid | |
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| The Oil Resource Pyramid | |
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| The US and Global Oil Resource Pyramids | |
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| Three Unconventional Oil Substitutes | |
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| US heavy oil | |
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| Global heavy oil | |
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| US oil sands | |
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| Global oil sands | |
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| US oil shale | |
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| Global oil shale | |
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| Fossil Fuel Conversion: The Role of Gas and Coal | |
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| The Importance of Diesel | |
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| Synthetic Fuel from Coal and Natural Gas | |
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| Natural Gas Resources | |
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| Coal Resources | |
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| Chapter Summary | |
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| Notes and References | |
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| Beyond Panic | |
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| The Non-Renewable Resource Model | |
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| Where is an Efficiency Gain Possible? | |
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| Will Increases in Efficiency Indeed Reduce Demand? | |
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| Two scenarios for developing nations | |
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| What Might Ultimately Substitute for Oil? | |
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| Cost of dependence on imported oil | |
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| Gasoline and atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions | |
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| Alternatives | |
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| Ethanol | |
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| Biodiesel | |
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| Leapfrogging to an ultimate substitute | |
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| Effects of a US move to oil alternatives | |
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| The State of Oil Resources | |
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| Ending Thoughts | |
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| Notes and References | |
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| Index | |