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Black Swan: Second Edition The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility

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ISBN-10: 1400063515

ISBN-13: 9781400063512

Edition: 2nd 2007

Authors: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

List price: $35.00
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A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we…    
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Book details

List price: $35.00
Edition: 2nd
Copyright year: 2007
Publisher: Random House Publishing Group
Publication date: 4/17/2007
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 480
Size: 6.35" wide x 9.58" long x 1.48" tall
Weight: 1.628
Language: English

Nassim Nicholas Taleb was born in 1960 in Amioun, Lebanon. He is a researcher, essayist, trader, epistemologist, and former practitioner of mathematical finance. Taleb received his bachelors and masters degree in science from the University of Paris. He holds an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and a Ph.D. in Management Science from the University of Paris- Dauphine. Taleb began his financial mathematics career in several of New York City's Wall Street firms before becoming a scholar in the epistemology of chance events, randomness, and the unknown. Taleb's book, Fooled by Randomness, was translated into 23 languages. His book, The Black Swan, was translated…    

Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation
The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic
Yevgenia's black swan
The speculator and the prostitute
One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker
Confirmation shmonfirmation!
The narrative fallacy
Living in the antechamber of hope
Glacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence
The ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd
We just can't predict
The scandal of prediction
How to look for bird poop
Epistemocracy, a dream
Appelles the painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict?
Those gray swans of Extremistan
From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and back
The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud
The aesthetics of randomness
Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places
The uncertainty of the phony
The end
Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan
Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans