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Project Risk Management Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers

ISBN-10: 1118482433

ISBN-13: 9781118482438

Edition: 2013

Authors: Yuri Raydugin

List price: $80.00
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Description:

The book is based on the author's Risk Management experience in several major and mega capital projects of Royal Dutch Shell, TransCanada Pipelines, TransAlta, Access Pipeline, MEG Energy, SNC-Lavalin, and others . It will show decision makers and project team members how to implement a consistent application of risk methods, including probabilistic methods. It will be based on existing training materials, models and tools developed by the author to make risk management accessible and easily implemented.  
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Book details

List price: $80.00
Copyright year: 2013
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 9/10/2013
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 400
Size: 6.00" wide x 9.00" long x 1.25" tall
Weight: 1.584
Language: English

Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
Fundamental Uncertainty of a Project Outcome
Nature of Project Uncertainties
Phases of Project Development and Project Objectives
Quest for Predictability of Project Outcome
Sources and Types of Deviations from Project Objectives
Key Objects of Risk (or Uncertainty) Management: Do We Really Know What We Try to Manage?
Uncertainty Exposure Changers
Conclusion
Notes
Main Components of a Risk Management System
Risk Management Plan
Organizational Framework
Risk Management Process
Risk Management Tools
Conclusion
Notes
Adequacy of Methods to Assess Project Uncertainties
Review of Deterministic Qualitative (Scoring) Methods
Review of Deterministic Quantitative Methods
Review of Probabilistic Qualitative Methods
Review of Probabilistic Quantitative Methods
Conclusion
Notes
Deterministic Methods
Uncertainty Identification
When Risk Management Becomes Boring
Three Dimensions of Risk Management and Uncertainty Identification
Risk Identification Workshops
Sources of Uncertainties and Risk Breakdown Structure
Bowtie Diagrams for Uncertainty Identification
Three-Part Uncertainty Naming
Role of Bias in Uncertainty Identification
Room for Unknown Unknowns
Conclusion
Notes
Risk Assessment and Addressing
Developing a Risk Assessment Matrix
Using a Risk Assessment Matrix for Assessment As-ls
Five Addressing Strategies
Assessment after Addressing
Project Execution through Risk Addressing (PETRA)
Role of Bias in Uncertainty Assessment
Conclusion
Notes
Response Implementation and Monitoring
Merging Risk Management with Team Work Plans
Monitor and Appraise
When Uncertainties Should Be Closed
When Should Residual Uncertainties Be Accepted?
Conclusion
Note
Risk Management Governance and Organizational Context
Risk Management Deliverables for Decision Gates
Ownership of Uncertainties and Addressing Actions
Management of Supercritical Risks
Risk Reviews and Reporting
Bias and Organizational Context
Conclusion
Notes
Risk Management Tools
Three Dimensions of Risk Management and Structure of the Uncertainty Repository
Risk Database Software Packages
Detailed Design of a Risk Register Template in MS Excel
Commercial Tools for Probabilistic Risk Analyses
Conclusion
Notes
Risk-Based Selection of Engineering Design Options
Criteria for Engineering Design Option Selection
Scoring Risk Method for Engineering Design Option Selection
Decision Tree for Engineering Design Option Selection (Controlled Options)
Conclusion
Note
Addressing Uncertainties through Procurement
Sources of Procurement Risks
Quantitative Bid Evaluation
Package Risk Management Post-Award
Conclusion
Notes
Cost Escalation Modeling
Overview of the Cost Escalation Approach
Example of Cost Escalation Modeling
Selecting the Right Time to Purchase
Conclusion
Notes
Probabilistic Monte Carlo Methods
Applications of Monte Carlo Methods in Project Risk Management
Features, Value, and Power of Monte Carlo Methods
Integration of Deterministic and Probabilistic Assessment Methods
Uncertainty Objects Influencing Outcome of Probabilistic Analyses
Origin and Nature of Uncertainties
Role of Correlations in Cost and Schedule Risk Analyses
Project Cost Reserve
Project Schedule Reserve
Anatomy of Input Distributions
Probabilistic Branching
Merge Bias as an Additional Reason Why Projects Are Often Late
Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
Including Unknown-Unknown Allowance in Probabilistic Models
Conclusion
Notes
Preparations for Probabilistic Analysis
Typical Workflows of Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Analyses
Planning Monte Carlo Analysis
Baselines and Development of Proxies
Why Using Proxies Is the Right Method
Mapping of Uncertain Events
Building and Running Monte Carlo Models
Conclusion
Notes
Using Outputs of Monte Carlo Analyses in Decision Making
Anatomy of Output Distributions
Overall Project Uncertainty and Confidence Levels of Baselines
Project Reserve Criteria
Uncertainty of Cost Outcome and Classes of Base Estimates
Cost Reserve Drawdown
Sensitivity Analysis
Using What-if Scenarios for Advanced Sensitivity Analysis
Are We Ready for Construction, Logistics, or Turnaround Windows?
Validating Results and Closing Probabilistic Analysis
Conclusion
Notes
Risk Management Case Study: Project Curiosity
Putting Together the Project Curiosity Case Study
Scope of the Case Study
Project Curiosity Baselines
Project Risk Management System Adopted by Project Curiosity
Overview of Project Uncertainty Exposure of Project Curiosity
Templates for Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Analyses
Building and Running Project Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Models
Three What-lf Scenarios
Conclusion
Notes
Decision Making
Key Points of the Probabilistic Analysis Report
Decision Gate Review Board Findings and Recommendations
Conclusion
Note
About the Author
Index