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Foreword | |
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Preface | |
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Acknowledgments | |
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Fundamental Uncertainty of a Project Outcome | |
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Nature of Project Uncertainties | |
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Phases of Project Development and Project Objectives | |
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Quest for Predictability of Project Outcome | |
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Sources and Types of Deviations from Project Objectives | |
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Key Objects of Risk (or Uncertainty) Management: Do We Really Know What We Try to Manage? | |
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Uncertainty Exposure Changers | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Main Components of a Risk Management System | |
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Risk Management Plan | |
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Organizational Framework | |
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Risk Management Process | |
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Risk Management Tools | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Adequacy of Methods to Assess Project Uncertainties | |
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Review of Deterministic Qualitative (Scoring) Methods | |
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Review of Deterministic Quantitative Methods | |
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Review of Probabilistic Qualitative Methods | |
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Review of Probabilistic Quantitative Methods | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Deterministic Methods | |
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Uncertainty Identification | |
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When Risk Management Becomes Boring | |
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Three Dimensions of Risk Management and Uncertainty Identification | |
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Risk Identification Workshops | |
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Sources of Uncertainties and Risk Breakdown Structure | |
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Bowtie Diagrams for Uncertainty Identification | |
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Three-Part Uncertainty Naming | |
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Role of Bias in Uncertainty Identification | |
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Room for Unknown Unknowns | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Risk Assessment and Addressing | |
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Developing a Risk Assessment Matrix | |
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Using a Risk Assessment Matrix for Assessment As-ls | |
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Five Addressing Strategies | |
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Assessment after Addressing | |
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Project Execution through Risk Addressing (PETRA) | |
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Role of Bias in Uncertainty Assessment | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Response Implementation and Monitoring | |
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Merging Risk Management with Team Work Plans | |
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Monitor and Appraise | |
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When Uncertainties Should Be Closed | |
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When Should Residual Uncertainties Be Accepted? | |
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Conclusion | |
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Note | |
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Risk Management Governance and Organizational Context | |
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Risk Management Deliverables for Decision Gates | |
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Ownership of Uncertainties and Addressing Actions | |
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Management of Supercritical Risks | |
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Risk Reviews and Reporting | |
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Bias and Organizational Context | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Risk Management Tools | |
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Three Dimensions of Risk Management and Structure of the Uncertainty Repository | |
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Risk Database Software Packages | |
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Detailed Design of a Risk Register Template in MS Excel | |
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Commercial Tools for Probabilistic Risk Analyses | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Risk-Based Selection of Engineering Design Options | |
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Criteria for Engineering Design Option Selection | |
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Scoring Risk Method for Engineering Design Option Selection | |
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Decision Tree for Engineering Design Option Selection (Controlled Options) | |
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Conclusion | |
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Note | |
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Addressing Uncertainties through Procurement | |
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Sources of Procurement Risks | |
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Quantitative Bid Evaluation | |
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Package Risk Management Post-Award | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Cost Escalation Modeling | |
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Overview of the Cost Escalation Approach | |
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Example of Cost Escalation Modeling | |
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Selecting the Right Time to Purchase | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Probabilistic Monte Carlo Methods | |
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Applications of Monte Carlo Methods in Project Risk Management | |
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Features, Value, and Power of Monte Carlo Methods | |
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Integration of Deterministic and Probabilistic Assessment Methods | |
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Uncertainty Objects Influencing Outcome of Probabilistic Analyses | |
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Origin and Nature of Uncertainties | |
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Role of Correlations in Cost and Schedule Risk Analyses | |
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Project Cost Reserve | |
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Project Schedule Reserve | |
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Anatomy of Input Distributions | |
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Probabilistic Branching | |
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Merge Bias as an Additional Reason Why Projects Are Often Late | |
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Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis | |
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Including Unknown-Unknown Allowance in Probabilistic Models | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Preparations for Probabilistic Analysis | |
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Typical Workflows of Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Analyses | |
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Planning Monte Carlo Analysis | |
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Baselines and Development of Proxies | |
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Why Using Proxies Is the Right Method | |
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Mapping of Uncertain Events | |
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Building and Running Monte Carlo Models | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Using Outputs of Monte Carlo Analyses in Decision Making | |
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Anatomy of Output Distributions | |
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Overall Project Uncertainty and Confidence Levels of Baselines | |
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Project Reserve Criteria | |
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Uncertainty of Cost Outcome and Classes of Base Estimates | |
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Cost Reserve Drawdown | |
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Sensitivity Analysis | |
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Using What-if Scenarios for Advanced Sensitivity Analysis | |
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Are We Ready for Construction, Logistics, or Turnaround Windows? | |
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Validating Results and Closing Probabilistic Analysis | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Risk Management Case Study: Project Curiosity | |
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Putting Together the Project Curiosity Case Study | |
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Scope of the Case Study | |
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Project Curiosity Baselines | |
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Project Risk Management System Adopted by Project Curiosity | |
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Overview of Project Uncertainty Exposure of Project Curiosity | |
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Templates for Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Analyses | |
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Building and Running Project Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Models | |
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Three What-lf Scenarios | |
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Conclusion | |
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Notes | |
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Decision Making | |
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Key Points of the Probabilistic Analysis Report | |
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Decision Gate Review Board Findings and Recommendations | |
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Conclusion | |
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Note | |
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About the Author | |
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Index | |