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Preface | |
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Acknowledgments | |
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Introduction Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants | |
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Foundations | |
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The Big Picture | |
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The Flaw of Averages | |
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The Fall of the Algebraic Curtain and Rise of the Flaw of Averages | |
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Mitigating the Flaw of Averages | |
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The Wright Brothers Versus the Wrong Brothers | |
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The Most Important Instrument in the Cockpit | |
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Five Basic MINDles for Uncertainty | |
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MINDles Are to MINDs What HANDles Are to HANDs | |
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Mindle 1: Uncertainty Versus Risk | |
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Mindle 2: An Uncertain Number Is a Shape | |
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Mindle 3: Combinations of Uncertain Numbers | |
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I Come to Bury SIGMA, Not to Praise it | |
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Mindle 4: Terri Dial and the Drunk in the Road | |
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Who Was Jensen and Why Wasn't He Equal? | |
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Mindle 5: Interrelated Uncertainties | |
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Decisions and Information | |
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Decision Trees | |
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The Value of Information | |
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The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging | |
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The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging | |
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The Flaw of Extremes | |
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Simpson's Paradox | |
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The Scholtes Revenue Fallacy | |
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Taking Credit for Chance Occurrences | |
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The Flaw of Averages in Finance | |
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Your Retirement Portfolio | |
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The Birth of Portfolio Theory: The Age of Covariance | |
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When Harry Met Bill(y) | |
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Mindles for the Financial Planning Client | |
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Options: Profiting from Uncertainty | |
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When Fischer and Myron Met Bob: Option Theory | |
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Prices, Probabilities, and Predictions | |
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Real Finance | |
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Holistic Versus Hole-istic | |
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Real Portfolios at Shell | |
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Real Options | |
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Some Gratuitous Inflammatory Remarks on the Accounting Industry | |
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The Flaw of Averages in Supply Chains | |
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The DNA of Supply Chains | |
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A Supply Chain of DNA | |
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Cawlfield's Principle | |
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The Flaw of Averages and Some Hot Button Issues | |
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The Statistical Research Group of World War II | |
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Probability and the War on Terror | |
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The Flaw of Averages and Climate Change | |
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The Flaw of Averages in Health Care | |
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Sex and the Central Limit Theorem | |
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Toward a Cure for the Flaw of Averages | |
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The End of Statistics as You Were Taught It | |
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Visualization | |
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Interactive Simulation: A New Lightbulb | |
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Scenario Libraries: The Power Grid | |
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The Fundamental Identity of SLURP Algebra | |
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Putting It into Practice | |
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The CPO: Managing Probability Management | |
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A Posthumous Visit by My Father | |
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Red Word Glossary | |
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Notes | |
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About the Author | |
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Index | |