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| List of tables | |
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| List of figures | |
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| Acknowledgments | |
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| Online appendices | |
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| Leaders | |
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| The central question | |
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| The central argument | |
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| Leaders in the study of international politics | |
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| Is war costly for leaders'? | |
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| Conclusions | |
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| Why and when do leaders fight? | |
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| How leaders are removed from office | |
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| Explaining the forcible removal from office | |
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| Fighting and gambling for survival | |
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| International conflict and regular removals | |
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| Competing leader-level explanations of international conflict | |
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| In- and out-group bias | |
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| Evaluation | |
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| Competence | |
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| Evaluation | |
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| Conclusions | |
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| International conflict and the fate of leaders | |
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| Introduction | |
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| The manner and consequences of losing office | |
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| International conflict and the fate of leaders | |
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| Competing risks: regular and forcible removals | |
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| Testing the hypotheses | |
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| Under what conditions? | |
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| Conflict and domestic political institutions | |
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| Conflict and domestic political unrest | |
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| Conflict and economic development | |
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| Conflict and economic growth | |
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| Summary | |
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| Conclusions | |
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| The fate of leaders and incentives to fight | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Measuring the risk of losing of office | |
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| A statistical test of our theory of conflict initiation | |
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| The risk of conflict initiation | |
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| Conflict outcomes | |
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| An overview of the findings from the statistical model | |
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| Regime type | |
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| State of the economy | |
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| International political context | |
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| Conclusions | |
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| Case studies: Central America 1840-1918 | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Central America | |
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| Empirical strategy | |
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| Ideology and international conflict in Central America | |
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| Birth pangs of independence 1840-48 148 | |
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| The return of Morazan | |
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| Malespin and the Liberal exiles in Nicaragua | |
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| The fall of Carrera | |
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| Conservatism ascendant 1849-71 156 | |
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| The return of Carrera | |
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| Cabanas comes to power | |
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| The National War | |
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| Gerardo Barrios | |
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| The return of Liberalism 1872-1918 | |
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| The rise and demise of Justo Rufino Barrios | |
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| The era of Zelaya and Estrada Cabrera | |
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| A problem (largely) solved: the Washington Treaty | |
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| Conclusions | |
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| Conclusions | |
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| Summary | |
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| Implications | |
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| Conclusions | |
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| data and measurement | |
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| Archigos: a data set of leaders | |
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| Dependent variables | |
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| Explanatory variables | |
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| Bibliography | |
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| Index | |