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| Figures | |
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| Tables | |
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| Sidebars | |
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| Abbreviations and Acronyms | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Health and Health Care Forecast: Executive Summary | |
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| Legislation | |
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| Demographics: Patients, Populations, and New Consumers | |
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| Payers and Health Care Costs | |
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| Health Plans and Insurers | |
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| Hospitals and Physicians | |
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| Medical and Information Technologies | |
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| Care Processes and Medical Management | |
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| Public Health | |
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| Three Scenarios | |
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| Demographic Trends and the Burden of Disease: Increasing Diversity | |
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| The United States Population Is Growing Older and Living Longer | |
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| The Face of America Continues to Change-Diversity Is Increasing | |
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| Household Income Is Increasing, but the Gap Between the Extremes Is Widening | |
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| The Shifting Burden of Disease: Chronic Diseases, Mental Illness, and Lifestyle Behaviors | |
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| Health Care's Demand Side: Changing Trends in Growth Rates 1960-2010 | |
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| Historical Trends | |
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| The Issues: What Drives Cost Increases? | |
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| Market Dynamics | |
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| The Forecast: Real Cost Growth at 1 Percent | |
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| The Significance of Our Cost Forecast for the Rest of Our 10-Year Outlook | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Health Insurance: The Three-Tiered Model | |
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| Scope of Employment-Based Coverage | |
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| The Issues: How Will People Receive Health Insurance? | |
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| The Forecast: Source of Insurance--Where Are the People? ... | |
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| ... and What Type of Insurance Will They Have? | |
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| Tiering Will Increase | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Managed Care: Experiments in Reinvention | |
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| The Issues: Managed Care is out of Balance | |
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| Drivers | |
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| Regulation May Have Cost Consequences | |
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| Potential Barriers to IT Implementation | |
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| The Forecast: Experiments in Reinvention | |
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| Managed Care 2010: Patterns of Power | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Health Care Providers: Themes of the Future Delivery System | |
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| Intermediaries | |
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| Reimbursement Models: Between Finance and Delivery | |
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| Care Delivery Organizations for the Next Decade | |
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| Medical Management: The New Arena of Activity | |
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| What Happens to Hospitals? | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Health Care Workforce: Future Supply and Demand | |
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| Physicians | |
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| Nurses | |
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| Physicians' Assistants | |
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| Future Employment | |
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| Pharmacists | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Medical Technologies: Effects on Care | |
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| Rational Drug Design | |
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| Advances in Imaging | |
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| Minimally Invasive Surgery | |
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| Genetic Mapping and Testing | |
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| Gene Therapy | |
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| Vaccines | |
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| Artificial Blood | |
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| Xenotransplantation | |
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| Stem Cell Technologies | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Information Technologies: Will Health Care Join in the Information Age? | |
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| Base Technologies | |
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| The Forecast: Four Big Effects in Health Care | |
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| Progression of Information Technology into Health Care | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Health Care Consumers: The Haves and the Have-Nots | |
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| Three Tiers of Health Care Consumers | |
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| Forecast and Assumptions | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Public Health Services: A Challenging Future | |
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| The History of Public Health in the United States | |
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| Key Factors Affecting Public Health in America Today | |
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| Technology | |
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| Public Health Frameworks and Strategies: Problems of Perception | |
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| Reconciling Public Health and Private Medicine | |
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| The Future: Scenarios and Forecasts | |
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| Forecast of the Future: Organizational Issues | |
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| Mental Health: The Hope of Science and Services | |
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| Facing the Problem and the Facts | |
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| Determining Priorities for Public Spending | |
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| Change Agents in Research | |
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| Mental Health Services Changes in the Next Decade | |
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| Policy and Legislation | |
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| Children's Health: A Good Investment | |
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| What Keeps Kids Healthy? Access and Environment | |
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| Access to Health Services: Enough Providers? | |
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| The Impact of Environment | |
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| Physical Environment and Increasing Chronic Illness | |
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| How Are We Doing? | |
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| What's in Store? | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Health and Health Care of America's Seniors: The Future Awaits Us | |
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| The Demographics of an Aging Population | |
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| The Economic Status of Seniors | |
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| Health Status of Seniors | |
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| Long-Term Care | |
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| Elder Health Care Financing Through Medicare | |
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| Implications | |
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| Chronic Care in America: An Evolving Crisis | |
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| Chronically Misunderstood: The Who, When, and What of Chronic Illness | |
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| Chronic Care Today: How We Got Here | |
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| Forecast | |
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| Implications | |
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| Disease Management: Weaving Disease Management into the Fabric of Patient Care | |
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| Diseases Being Managed | |
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| A Disease Management Primer | |
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| Drivers and Barriers on the Path Ahead | |
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| Forecast | |
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| The Pace of Change | |
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| Health Behaviors: Small Steps in the Right Direction | |
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| Alcohol and Drug Abuse in America | |
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| Injury Prevention: A Focus on Guns | |
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| Tobacco Use and Health | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| Expanded Perspective on Health: Beyond the Curative Model | |
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| Definition of Health | |
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| Stress | |
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| Socioeconomic Status as a Determinant of Health | |
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| What's New? Why Now? | |
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| Consumer Expectations | |
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| Deteriorating Health Conditions | |
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| Global Health Perspective | |
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| The Future: Shifting Paradigms | |
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| The Paradigm Shift: Evolution or Revolution? | |
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| Wild Cards | |
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| The Reactions | |
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| Glossary | |
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| Index | |