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| Preface and Acknowledgments | |
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| Empirical Theory and the Causes of War | |
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| Empirical Theory | |
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| Levels of Analysis | |
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| The Individual Level of Analysis, Part I: Human Aggression | |
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| Why Are Human Beings Aggressive? The Nature-Nurture Dispute | |
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| Nature: Early Ethology | |
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| Nature: Second-Wave Studies in Ethology and Primatology | |
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| Nurture: The Basics | |
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| Nurture: Cultural Evolution | |
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| Nurture: Peaceful Societies | |
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| Nurture: Social Learning Theory | |
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| Nurture: Three Experiments in Learning Peace and War | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The Individual Level of Analysis, Part II: Psychological Explanations for War | |
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| Do Individuals Make a Difference? | |
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| The Role of Reason: The Rational Model | |
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| The Role of Personality: Psychological Theories | |
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| The Role of Emotion: The Cognitive Revolution | |
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| The Role of Bias: Heuristic Theories | |
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| The Role of Risk Bias: Prospect Theory | |
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| The Role of Images and Beliefs | |
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| The Role of Decision-Stage Psychology: The Rubicon Theory | |
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| The Role of Misperception | |
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| The Role of Stress | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The Substate Level of Analysis: Group Decision Making | |
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| The Role of Rationality in Small Groups: The Rational Actor Model | |
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| The Role of Rationality: Expected Utility Theory | |
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| Why Governments Don't Use the Rational Actor Model | |
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| The Role of Rationality: Bounded Rationality Theory | |
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| The Role of Structure: The Organizational Process Model | |
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| The Role of Structure: The Bureaucratic Politics Model | |
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| The Role of Group Psychology: Groupthink | |
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| Group Concurrence Beyond Groupthink | |
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| Prescriptions for Better Small-Group Decision Making | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The State Level of Analysis, Part I: Political, Economic, and Demographic Factors | |
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| Liberalism: Some Basics | |
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| The Role of Regime Type (1): Democracy and the Monadic Peace | |
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| The Role of Regime Type (2): Democratization | |
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| The Role of Regime Type (3): Rogue States | |
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| The Role of the Business Cycle: Good Times and Bad Times | |
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| Does Size Matter? The Role of Power, Size, and Development | |
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| The Role of Population (1): Lebensraum | |
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| The Role of Population (2): Lateral Pressure | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The State Level of Analysis, Part II: Internal Conflicts, Nationalism, and War Weariness | |
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| The Role of Internal Conflict (1): The Diversionary/Scapegoat Theory of War | |
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| The Role of Internal Conflict (2): Contested Institutions | |
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| The Role of Internal Conflict (3): "Kick 'Em While They're Down" Wars | |
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| The Role of Internal Conflict (4): Revolution | |
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| The Role of Internal Conflict (5): Outside Intervention in Internal Conflicts | |
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| The Role of Internal Conflict: Summing Up and Implications | |
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| The Role of Nationalism | |
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| The Role of War Weariness | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The Dyadic Level of Analysis, Part I: The Nature of Dyads-Really Bad Dyads and Pretty Good Dyads | |
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| The Role of Contiguity and Territorial Disputes | |
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| The Role of Shared Ethnicity | |
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| The Role of Rivalry | |
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| The Role of Regime Types in Dyads | |
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| The Role of Dyadic Power Balances | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The Dyadic Level of Analysis, Part II: International Interactions | |
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| The Role of Action and Reaction in Dyads (I): The Spiral Model | |
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| The Role of Conciliatory Responses in the Spiral Model: Liberal and Conservative Views | |
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| Implications for Theory and Policy: The Security Dilemma | |
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| The Spiral Model: A Dissenting Opinion | |
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| The Role of Actions and Reactions (II): Arms Races | |
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| The Steps-to-War Theory | |
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| GRIT as a Solution to the Conflict Spirals | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The Dyadic Level of Analysis, Part III: Game Theory, Bargaining, and Deterrence Theory | |
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| Game Theory | |
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| Bargaining Theory | |
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| Deterrence Theory | |
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| Deterrence: Empirical Research | |
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| Cognitive Psychology and Deterrence | |
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| Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence | |
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| Deterrence: Conclusion | |
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| The International System Level of Analysis, Part I: Realism, Anarchy, and the Balance of Power | |
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| International Anarchy | |
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| Classical Realism | |
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| Neorealism | |
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| Defensive Realism | |
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| Offense-Defense Realism | |
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| Offensive Realism | |
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| Neoclassical Realism | |
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| Realism and the Roles of Polarity and Polarization | |
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| Bipolarity and Multipolarity: The Theoretical Debate | |
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| Polarization: Empirical Research | |
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| Alliances: Empirical Research | |
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| Polarity: Empirical Research | |
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| Combined Effects: Polarity and Polarization | |
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| Polarity and Offensive Realism: Mearsheimer's Balanced and Unbalanced Systems | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The International System Level of Analysis, Part II: Power Dynamics, Cyclical Theories, and Historical-Structural Theories of War | |
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| Status Discrepancy | |
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| Power Transition Theory | |
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| Copeland's Dynamic Differentials Theory | |
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| Historical-Cyclical Theories of War | |
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| Gilpin's Theory of Hegemonic War | |
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| Modelski's Leadership Long Cycle Theory | |
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| Wallerstein's World Systems Approach | |
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| Doran's Relative Power Cycle Theory | |
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| Systemic Theories: Implications | |
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| Constructivism: A Digression | |
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| The Constructivist Approach: Basic Principles | |
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| Constructivist Theory and War | |
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| The Iraq War: A Constructivist Analysis | |
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| Conclusion | |
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| The Causes of War: Some Basics | |
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| The Perfect Storm | |
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| Different Paths to War? | |
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| The Causes of Peace: Is War Becoming Obsolete? | |
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| Notes | |
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| Selected Bibliography | |
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| Index | |
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| About the Author | |