Decision Analysis | p. 1 |
A Decision Tree Model and its Analysis | p. 2 |
Summary of the General Method of Decision Analysis | p. 16 |
Another Decision Tree Model and its Analysis | p. 17 |
The Need for a Systematic Theory of Probability | p. 30 |
Further Issues and Concluding Remarks on Decision Analysis | p. 33 |
Case Modules | p. 35 |
Kendall Crab and Lobster, Inc. | p. 35 |
Buying a House | p. 38 |
The Acquisition of DSOFT | p. 38 |
National Realty Investment Corporation | p. 39 |
Exercises | p. 44 |
Fundamentals of Discrete Probability | p. 49 |
Outcomes, Probabilities and Events | p. 50 |
The Laws of Probability | p. 51 |
Working with Probabilities and Probability Tables | p. 54 |
Random Variables | p. 65 |
Discrete Probability Distributions | p. 66 |
The Binomial Distribution | p. 67 |
Summary Measures of Probability Distributions | p. 72 |
Linear Functions of a Random Variable | p. 79 |
Covariance and Correlation | p. 82 |
Joint Probability Distributions and Independence | p. 86 |
Sums of Two Random Variables | p. 88 |
Some Advanced Methods in Probability* | p. 91 |
Summary | p. 96 |
Case Modules | p. 97 |
Arizona Instrumentation, Inc. and the Economic Development Board of Singapore | p. 97 |
San Carlos Mud Slides | p. 98 |
Graphic Corporation | p. 99 |
Exercises | p. 100 |
Continuous Probability Distributions and Their Applications | p. 111 |
Continuous Random Variables | p. 111 |
The Probability Density Function | p. 112 |
The Cumulative Distribution Function | p. 115 |
The Normal Distribution | p. 120 |
Computing Probabilities for the Normal Distribution | p. 127 |
Sums of Normally Distributed Random Variables | p. 132 |
The Central Limit Theorem | p. 135 |
Summary | p. 139 |
Exercises | p. 139 |
Statistical Sampling | p. 147 |
Random Samples | p. 148 |
Statistics of a Random Sample | p. 150 |
Confidence Intervals for the Mean, for Large Sample Size | p. 161 |
The t-Distribution | p. 165 |
Confidence Intervals for the Mean, for Small Sample Size | p. 166 |
Estimation and Confidence Intervals for the Population Proportion | p. 169 |
Experimental Design | p. 174 |
Comparing Estimates of the Mean of Two Distributions | p. 178 |
Comparing Estimates of the Population Proportion of Two Populations | p. 180 |
Summary and Extensions | p. 182 |
Case Modules | p. 183 |
Consumer Convenience, Inc. | p. 183 |
Posidon, Inc. | p. 184 |
Housing Prices in Lexington, Massachusetts | p. 185 |
Scallop Sampling | p. 185 |
Exercises | p. 189 |
Simulation Modeling: Concepts and Practice | p. 195 |
A Simple Problem: Operations at Conley Fisheries | p. 196 |
Preliminary Analysis of Conley Fisheries | p. 197 |
A Simulation Model of the Conley Fisheries Problem | p. 199 |
Random Number Generators | p. 201 |
Creating Numbers that Obey a Discrete Probability Distribution | p. 203 |
Creating Numbers that Obey a Continuous Probability Distribution | p. 205 |
Completing the Simulation Model of Conley Fisheries | p. 211 |
Using the Sample Data for Analysis | p. 213 |
Summary of Simulation Modeling, and Guidelines on the Use of Simulation | p. 217 |
Computer Software for Simulation Modeling | p. 217 |
Typical Uses of Simulation Models | p. 218 |
Case Modules | p. 219 |
The Gentle Lentil Restaurant | p. 219 |
To Hedge or not to Hedge? | p. 223 |
Ontario Gateway | p. 228 |
Casterbridge Bank | p. 235 |
Regression Models: Concepts and Practice | p. 245 |
Prediction Based on Simple Linear Regression | p. 246 |
Prediction Based on Multiple Linear Regression | p. 253 |
Using Spreadsheet Software for Linear Regression | p. 258 |
Interpretation of Computer Output of a Linear Regression Model | p. 259 |
Sample Correlation and R[superscript 2] in Simple Linear Regression | p. 271 |
Validating the Regression Model | p. 274 |
Warnings and Issues in Linear Regression Modeling | p. 279 |
Regression Modeling Techniques | p. 283 |
Illustration of the Regression Modeling Process | p. 288 |
Summary and Conclusions | p. 294 |
Case Modules | p. 295 |
Predicting Heating Oil Consumption at OILPLUS | p. 295 |
Executive Compensation | p. 297 |
The Construction Department at Croq'Pain | p. 299 |
Sloan Investors, Part I | p. 306 |
Exercises | p. 313 |
Linear Optimization | p. 323 |
Formulating a Management Problem as a Linear Optimization Model | p. 324 |
Key Concepts and Definitions | p. 332 |
Solution of a Linear Optimization Model | p. 335 |
Creating and Solving a Linear Optimization Model in a Spreadsheet | p. 347 |
Sensitivity Analysis and Shadow Prices on Constraints | p. 354 |
Guidelines for Constructing and Using Linear Optimization Models | p. 365 |
Linear Optimization Under Uncertainty* | p. 367 |
A Brief Historical Sketch of the Development of Linear Optimization | p. 374 |
Case Modules | p. 375 |
Short-Run Manufacturing Problems at DEC | p. 375 |
Sytech International | p. 380 |
Filatoi Riuniti | p. 389 |
Exercises | p. 397 |
Nonlinear Optimization | p. 411 |
Formulating a Management Problem as a Nonlinear Optimization Model | p. 412 |
Graphical Analysis of Nonlinear Optimization Models in Two Variables | p. 420 |
Computer Solution of Nonlinear Optimization Problems | p. 425 |
Shadow Prices Information in Nonlinear Optimization Models | p. 428 |
A Closer Look at Portfolio Optimization | p. 431 |
Taxonomy of the Solvability of Nonlinear Optimization Problems* | p. 432 |
Case Modules | p. 436 |
Endurance Investors | p. 436 |
Capacity Investment, Marketing, and Production at ILG, Inc. | p. 442 |
Exercises | p. 444 |
Discrete Optimization | p. 451 |
Formulating a Management Problem as a Discrete Optimization Model | p. 452 |
Graphical Analysis of Discrete Optimization Models in Two Variables | p. 461 |
Computer Solution of Discrete Optimization Problems | p. 464 |
The Branch-and-Bound Method for Solving a Discrete Optimization Model* | p. 468 |
Summary | p. 471 |
Case Modules | p. 471 |
International Industries, Inc. | p. 471 |
Supply Chain Management at Dellmar, Inc. | p. 474 |
The National Basketball Dream Team | p. 476 |
Exercises | p. 478 |
Intergration in the Art of Decision Modeling | p. 485 |
Management Science Models in the Airline Industry | p. 486 |
Management Science Models in the Investment Management Industry | p. 496 |
A Year in the Life of a Manufacturing Company | p. 498 |
Summary | p. 501 |
Case Modules | p. 502 |
Sloan Investors, Part II | p. 502 |
Revenue Management at Atlantic Air | p. 503 |
A Strategic Alliance for the Lexington Laser Corporation | p. 508 |
Yield of a Multi-step Manufacturing Process | p. 510 |
Prediction of Yields in Manufacturing | p. 512 |
Allocation of Production Personnel | p. 513 |
Appendix | p. 517 |
References | p. 521 |
Index | p. 525 |
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