Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools Suite : Update 2004 Edition

ISBN-10: 0534421997

ISBN-13: 9780534421991

Edition: 1st 2004

Authors: Robert T. Clemen, Terence Reilly

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Book details

List price: $125.95
Edition: 1st
Copyright year: 2004
Publisher: Brooks/Cole
Binding: Cloth Text 
Pages: 752
Size: 7.48" wide x 9.45" long
Weight: 3.146
Language: English

Prefacep. xxi
Introduction to Decision Analysisp. 1
Gypsy Moths and the Odap. 1
Why Are Decisions Hard?p. 2
Why Study Decision Analysis?p. 3
Subjective Judgments and Decision Makingp. 5
The Decision-Analysis Processp. 5
Where Is Decision Analysis Used?p. 8
Where Does the Software Fit In?p. 9
Where Are We Going from Here?p. 11
Modeling Decisionsp. 19
Elements of Decision Problemsp. 21
Values and Objectivesp. 21
Making Money: A Special Objectivep. 22
Values and the Current Decision Contextp. 23
Boeing's Supercomputerp. 24
Decisions to Makep. 25
Sequential Decisionsp. 26
Uncertain Eventsp. 27
Consequencesp. 29
The Time Value of Money: A Special Kind of Trade-Offp. 30
Larkin Oilp. 33
Structuring Decisionsp. 43
Structuring Valuesp. 44
Hiring a Summer Internp. 44
Fundamental and Means Objectivesp. 46
Getting the Decision Context Rightp. 51
Structuring Decisions: Influence Diagramsp. 52
Influence Diagrams and the Fundamental-Objectives Hierarchyp. 54
Using Arcs to Represent Relationshipsp. 55
Some Basic Influence Diagramsp. 57
Constructing an Influence Diagram (Optional)p. 65
Toxic Chemicals and the Epap. 65
Structuring Decisions: Decision Treesp. 69
Decision Trees and the Objectives Hierarchyp. 71
Some Basic Decision Treesp. 72
Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams Comparedp. 76
Decision Details: Defining Elements of the Decisionp. 76
More Decision Details: Cash Flows and Probabilitiesp. 78
Defining Measurement Scales for Fundamental Objectivesp. 79
Using PrecisionTree for Structuring Decisionsp. 83
Making Choicesp. 111
Texaco Versus Pennzoilp. 111
Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Valuep. 115
Solving Influence Diagrams: Overviewp. 119
Solving Influence Diagrams: The Details (Optional)p. 121
Solving Influence Diagrams: An Algorithm (Optional)p. 127
Risk Profilesp. 128
Dominance: An Alternative to EMVp. 133
Making Decisions with Multiple Objectivesp. 137
The Summer Jobp. 138
Analysis: One Objective at a Timep. 140
Subjective Ratings for Constructed Attribute Scalesp. 140
Assessing Trade-Off Weightsp. 142
Analysis: Expected Values and Risk Profiles for Two Objectivesp. 143
Decision Analysis Using PrecisionTreep. 146
Sensitivity Analysisp. 174
Eagle Airlinesp. 174
Sensitivity Analysis: A Modeling Approachp. 175
Problem Identification and Structurep. 176
One-Way Sensitivity Analysisp. 179
Tornado Diagramsp. 180
Dominance Considerationsp. 181
Two-Way Sensitivity Analysisp. 183
Sensitivity to Probabilitiesp. 184
Two-Way Sensitivity Analysis for Three Alternatives (Optional)p. 188
Investing in the Stock Marketp. 189
Sensitivity Analysis in Actionp. 192
Heart Disease in Infantsp. 192
Sensitivity Analysis Using TopRank and PrecisionTreep. 193
Sensitivity Analysis: A Built-In Ironyp. 206
Creativity and Decision Makingp. 217
What Is Creativity?p. 218
Theories of Creativityp. 219
Chains of Thoughtp. 219
Phases of the Creative Processp. 220
Blocks to Creativityp. 222
The Monk and the Mountainp. 222
Making Cigarsp. 223
Ping-Pong Ball in a Pipep. 227
Value-Focused Thinking for Creating Alternativesp. 230
Transportation of Nuclear Wastep. 231
Other Creativity Techniquesp. 233
Creating Decision Opportunitiesp. 239
Modeling Uncertaintyp. 247
Probability Basicsp. 249
A Little Probability Theoryp. 250
Venn Diagramsp. 250
More Probability Formulasp. 251
Uncertain Quantitiesp. 256
Examplesp. 272
Oil Wildcattingp. 272
John Hinckley's Trialp. 278
Decision-Analysis Software and Bayes' Theoremp. 280
Subjective Probabilityp. 295
Uncertainty and Public Policyp. 295
Probability: A Subjective Interpretationp. 297
Accounting for Contingent Lossesp. 298
Assessing Discrete Probabilitiesp. 299
Assessing Continuous Probabilitiesp. 303
Pitfalls: Heuristics and Biasesp. 311
Tom W.p. 311
Decomposition and Probability Assessmentp. 315
Experts and Probability Assessment: Pulling It All Togetherp. 321
Climate Change at Yucca Mountain, Nevadap. 324
Coherence and the Dutch Book (Optional)p. 326
Constructing Distributions Using RISKviewp. 328
Theoretical Probability Modelsp. 352
Theoretical Models Appliedp. 353
The Binomial Distributionp. 354
The Poisson Distributionp. 358
The Exponential Distributionp. 361
The Normal Distributionp. 363
The Beta Distributionp. 369
Viewing Theoretical Distributions with RISKviewp. 373
Using Datap. 398
Using Data to Construct Probability Distributionsp. 398
Halfway Housesp. 400
Using Data to Fit Theoretical Probability Modelsp. 404
Fitting Distributions to Datap. 405
Using Data to Model Relationshipsp. 412
The Regression Approachp. 414
Natural Conjugate Distributions (Optional)p. 436
A Bayesian Approach to Regression Analysis (Optional)p. 445
Monte Carlo Simulationp. 459
Fashionsp. 460
Using Uniform Random Numbers as Building Blocksp. 463
General Uniform Distributionsp. 464
Exponential Distributionsp. 465
Discrete Distributionsp. 466
Other Distributionsp. 466
Simulating Spreadsheet Models Using @RISKp. 466
Simulation, Decision Trees, and Influence Diagramsp. 486
Value of Informationp. 496
Investing in the Stock Marketp. 496
Value of Information: Some Basic Ideasp. 497
Expected Value of Perfect Informationp. 500
Expected Value of Imperfect Informationp. 502
Value of Information in Complex Problemsp. 508
Value of Information, Sensitivity Analysis, and Structuringp. 509
Seeding Hurricanesp. 510
Value of Information and Nonmonetary Objectivesp. 511
Value of Information and Expertsp. 512
Calculating EVPI and EVII with PrecisionTreep. 512
Modeling Preferencesp. 525
Risk Attitudesp. 527
E. H. Harriman Fights for the Northern Pacific Railroadp. 528
Riskp. 529
Risk Attitudesp. 531
Investing in the Stock Market, Revisitedp. 533
Expected Utility, Certainty Equivalents, and Risk Premiumsp. 535
Keeping Terms Straightp. 539
Utility Function Assessmentp. 539
Risk Tolerance and the Exponential Utility Functionp. 543
Modeling Preferences Using PrecisionTreep. 546
Decreasing and Constant Risk Aversion (Optional)p. 551
Some Caveatsp. 556
Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implicationsp. 571
Preparing for an Influenza Outbreakp. 571
Axioms for Expected Utilityp. 572
Paradoxesp. 578
Implicationsp. 582
A Final Perspectivep. 586
Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives and the Additive Utility Functionp. 598
Objectives and Attributesp. 600
Trading Off Conflicting Objectives: The Basicsp. 602
The Additive Utility Functionp. 604
Assessing Individual Utility Functionsp. 610
Assessing Weightsp. 614
Keeping Concepts Straight: Certainty versus Uncertaintyp. 620
An Example: Library Choicesp. 621
The Eugene Public Libraryp. 621
Using Software for Multiple-Objective Decisionsp. 628
Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with Interactionsp. 644
Multiattribute Utility Functions: Direct Assessmentp. 645
Independence Conditionsp. 647
Determining Whether Independence Existsp. 648
Using Independencep. 650
Additive Independencep. 651
Substitutes and Complementsp. 654
Assessing a Two-Attribute Utility Functionp. 654
The Blood Bankp. 655
Three or More Attributes (Optional)p. 659
When Independence Failsp. 660
Multiattribute Utility in Action: BC Hydrop. 661
Strategic Decisions at BC Hydrop. 661
Conclusion and Further Readingp. 675
A Decision-Analysis Reading Listp. 676
Appendixesp. 679
Binomial Distribution: Individual Probabilitiesp. 680
Binomial Distribution: Cumulative Probabilitiesp. 688
Poisson Distribution: Individual Probabilitiesp. 696
Poisson Distribution: Cumulative Probabilitiesp. 701
Normal Distribution: Cumulative Probabilitiesp. 706
Beta Distribution: Cumulative Probabilitiesp. 710
Answers to Selected Exercisesp. 719
Creditsp. 721
Author Indexp. 722
Subject Indexp. 725
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