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| What Is Simulation? | |
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| Actual Applications of Simulation | |
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| What's Ahead? | |
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| Simulation Models Versus Analytic Models | |
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| Random Numbers--The Building Blocks of Simulation | |
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| Problems | |
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| Using Spreadsheets to Perform Simulations | |
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| The Newsvendor Problem | |
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| Finding a Confidence Interval for Expected Profit | |
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| How Many Trials Do We Need? | |
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| Determination of the Optimal Order Quantity | |
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| Using Excel Data Tables to Repeat a Simulation | |
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| Performing the Newsvendor Simulation with the Excel Random Number Generator | |
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| Problems | |
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| An Introduction to @RISK | |
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| Simulating the Newsvendor Example with @RISK | |
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| Explanation of Statistical Results | |
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| Conclusions | |
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| Generating Normal Random Variables | |
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| Simulating Normal Demand with @RISK | |
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| Using the Graph Type Icons | |
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| Placing Target Values in the Statistics Output | |
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| Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution | |
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| Problems | |
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| Applications of Simulation to Corporate Financial Planning | |
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| Using the Triangular Distribution to Model Sales | |
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| Sensitivity Analysis with Tornado Graphs | |
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| Sensitivity Analysis with Scenarios | |
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| Alternative Modeling Strategies | |
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| Problems | |
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| Simulating a Cash Budget | |
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| Cash Budgeting | |
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| Problems | |
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| A Simulation Approach to Capacity Planning | |
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| Wozac Capacity Example | |
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| Problems | |
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| Simulation and Bidding | |
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| Uniform Random Variables | |
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| A Bidding Example | |
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| Problems | |
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| Deming's Funnel Experiment | |
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| Simulating Rule 1 (Don't Touch That Funnel!) | |
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| Simulating Rule 2 | |
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| Comparison of Rules 1-4 | |
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| Lesson of the Funnel Experiment | |
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| Mathematical Explanation of the Funnel Experiment | |
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| Problems | |
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| The Taguchi Loss Function | |
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| Using @RISK to Quantify Quality Loss | |
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| Problems | |
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| The Use of Simulation in Project Management | |
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| The Widgetco Example | |
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| Estimating Probability Distribution of Project Completion Time | |
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| Determining the Probability That an Activity Is Critical | |
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| The Beta Distribution and Project Management | |
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| Problems | |
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| Simulating Craps (and Other Games) | |
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| Simulating Craps | |
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| Confidence Interval for Winning at Craps | |
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| Problems | |
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| Using Simulation to Determine Optimal Maintenance Policies | |
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| Example 14.1 | |
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| Problems | |
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| Using the Weibull Distribution to Model Machine Life | |
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| Simulating Equipment Replacement Decisions | |
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| Problems | |
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| Simulating Stock Prices and Options | |
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| Modeling the Price of a Stock | |
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| Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of Stock Returns from Historical Data | |
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| What Is an Option? | |
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| Pricing a Call Option | |
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| Pricing a European Call Option with @RISK | |
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| Analyzing a Portfolio of Investments | |
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| Simulating Portfolio Return | |
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| Problems | |
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| Pricing Path-Dependent and Exotic Options | |
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| Pricing a Path-Dependent Option | |
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| Problems | |
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| Using Immunization to Manage Interest Rate Risk | |
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| Duration | |
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| Convexity | |
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| Immunization Against Interest Rate Risk | |
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| Immunization Using Solver | |
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| Better Models for Interest Rate Risk | |
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| Problems | |
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| Hedging with Futures | |
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| Hedging with Futures: The Basics | |
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| Modeling Futures Risk with @RISK | |
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| Problems | |
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| Modeling Market Share | |
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| Market Share Simulation | |
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| Is Advertising Worthwhile? | |
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| Advertising Effectiveness | |
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| To Coupon or Not to Coupon? | |
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| Should Coke Give Out Coupons? | |
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| Problems | |
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| Generating Correlated Variables: Designing a New Product | |
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| Example 21.1 | |
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| Problems | |
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| Simulating Sampling Plans with the Hypergeometric Distribution | |
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| Simulating a Sampling Plan | |
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| Problems | |
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| Simulating Inventory Models | |
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| Simulating a Periodic Review Inventory System | |
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| Problems | |
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| Simulating a Single-Server Queuing System | |
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| Queuing Simulation in @RISK | |
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| Estimating the Operating Characteristics of a Queuing System | |
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| Problems | |
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| Index | |