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| Introduction | |
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| Introduction to Quantitative Methods | |
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| Continuing Stories of Success with Quantitative Methods | |
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| Management Science and Operations Research | |
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| Organization and Purpose of This Book | |
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| Models and Decision Making | |
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| Computer Solutions | |
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| The Importance of Studying Quantitative Methods | |
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| Introduction to Spreadsheets with Excel | |
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| The First Excel Window | |
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| Entering Formulas, Copying, Editing, and Formatting | |
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| Spreadsheet Arithmetic | |
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| Displaying Excel Results | |
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| Graphing Using Excel's Chart Wizard | |
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| Using Excel with This Text | |
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| Decision Making and Planning with Uncertainty | |
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| Probability Concepts: Quantifying Uncertainty | |
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| The Language of Probability: Basic Concepts | |
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| Probabilities for Composite Events | |
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| Joint Probability and the Multiplication Law | |
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| Finding Probabilities Using the Addition Law | |
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| Statistical Independence | |
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| Conditional Probability and the General Multiplication Law | |
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| Probability Trees | |
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| Revising Probabilities Using Bayes' Theorem | |
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| Subjective Probability | |
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| Probability Distributions and Expected Value | |
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| Random Variables and Probability Distributions | |
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| Expected Value | |
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| Finding the Probability Distribution | |
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| The Binomial Distribution | |
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| The Normal Distribution | |
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| Poisson and Exponential Distributions | |
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| (Optional) Judgmental Assessment of the Probability Distribution | |
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| Decision-Making Concepts | |
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| Certainty and Uncertainty in Decision Making | |
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| Elements of Decisions | |
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| Ranking the Alternatives and the Payoff Table | |
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| Maximizing Expected Payoff: The Bayes Decision Rule | |
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| Other Decision Criteria | |
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| Opportunity Loss and the Expected Value of Perfect Information | |
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| Decision Tree Analysis | |
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| Decision-Making and Risk: Certainty Equivalents and Utility | |
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| Decision Making Using Certainty Equivalents | |
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| Decision Making with Utility | |
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| The Utility for Money | |
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| (Optional) Attitudes Toward Risk and Valuation in Decision Making | |
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| Forecasting | |
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| Forecasting Using Past Data: Time-Series Analysis | |
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| Exponential Smoothing | |
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| Forecasting Trend Using Regression | |
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| Forecasting Using Causal Models: Regression Analysis | |
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| Forecasting Using Seasonal Indexes | |
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| Further Forecasting Procedures and the Role of Judgment | |
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| (Optional) Statistical Fundamentals of Regression Analysis | |
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| Resource Allocation | |
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| Linear Programming | |
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| The Redwood Furniture Problem | |
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| Formulating the Linear Program | |
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| Solving Linear Programs Graphically | |
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| Special Problems in Constructing Lines | |
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| Problems with More Than Two Constraints | |
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| Cost Minimization: A Feed-Mix Problem | |
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| Steps and Rationale for Graphical Solution | |
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| Mixture and Equality Constraints | |
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| Multiple Optimal Solutions | |
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| Infeasible Problems | |
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| Unbounded Problems | |
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| Linear Programming Applications and Solution Procedures | |
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| Graphing Using a Spreadsheet | |
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| Linear Programming Applications and Computer Solutions | |
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| Linear Programming in Manufacturing: Product-Mix Selection | |
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| Formulating Constraints and the Standardized Format | |
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| Slack and Surplus Variables | |
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| Solving Problems Using the Computer | |
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| Linear Programming in Finance: Portfolio Selection | |
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| Linear Programming in Transportation: Shipment Scheduling | |
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| Linear Programming in Marketing: Budgeting Advertising Expenditures | |
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| Linear Programming in Human Resources: Assigning Personnel | |
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| Linear Programming in Refining: Liquid Blending | |
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| Linear Programming in Food Processing: The Diet Problem | |
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| (Optional) The Simplex Method | |
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| (Optional) Saving Problem Data and Exhanging Data Files | |
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| Sensitivity Analysis and Duality in Linear Programming | |
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| Shadow Prices and Opportunity Costs | |
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| The Dual Linear Program | |
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| Evaluating New Products Using the Dual | |
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| Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming | |
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| Post-Optimality Analysis | |
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| (Optional) Dual for a Generalized Linear Program | |
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| (Optional) The Dual for a Cost-Minimization Primal Linear Program | |
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| Integer and Goal Programming | |
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| Integer Programming | |
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| Computer Applications with Integer Programming | |
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| Integer Programming Applications | |
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| Multi-Objective Evaluations Using Goal Programming | |
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| Solving Goal Programs on the Computer | |
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| Distribution, Routing, and Scheduling | |
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| Transportation and Assignment Problems | |
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| A Ski Shipment Scheduling Illustration | |
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| Getting Started: The Northwest Corner Method | |
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| Solving the Problem: The Transportation Method | |
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| Computer Solution to Transportation Problems | |
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| Imbalanced Capacity and Demand: Dummy Rows and Columns | |
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| The Transshipment Problem | |
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| The Assignment Problem | |
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| (Optional) Starting Procedures Based on Cost | |
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| (Optional) Other Applications of the Transportation Problem | |
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| Network Models | |
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| The Structure of Network Problems | |
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| The Shortest Route Problem | |
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| Minimal Spanning Tree Problem | |
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| The Maximum Flow Problem | |
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| The Minimum Cost Maximum Flow Problem | |
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| Further Network Considerations | |
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| (Optional) The Out-of-Kilter Algorithm | |
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| Project Management with PERT and CPM | |
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| The Importance of Time in Planning | |
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| The Basic Concepts of PERT | |
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| An Analysis of the PERT Network | |
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| Planning and Control Using the PERT Network | |
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| Computer Applications with PERT/CPM | |
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| Time--Cost Trade-Off Evaluations with PERT | |
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| Probabilistic PERT Analysis with Three Time Estimates | |
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| Implementing PERT and Further Considerations | |
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| (Optional) Alternative Network Graph: The CPM Network | |
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| (Optional) PERT Network Evaluations Using Spreadsheets | |
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| Inventory Management | |
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| Inventory Decisions with Certain Factors | |
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| Factors Influencing Inventory Policy | |
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| The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model | |
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| Optimal Inventory Policy with Backordering | |
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| Establishing Inventory Policies Based on Service Level | |
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| Inventory Policy for Lost Sales | |
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| Economic Production Quantity Model | |
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| Additional Remarks | |
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| Inventory Decisions with Uncertain Factors | |
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| Making an Inventory Decision: Maximizing Expected Payoff | |
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| Single-Period Inventory Decision: The Newsvendor Problem | |
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| Continuous Probability Distribution for Demand: The Christmas Tree Problem | |
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| Multiperiod Inventory Policies | |
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| The EOQ Models for Normally Distributed Demand | |
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| Analytic and Numerical Solution Methods | |
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| Development of the Inventory Model Spreadsheets | |
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| Simulation and Waiting Lines | |
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| Waiting Lines (Queues) | |
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| Basic Queuing Situations | |
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| The Single-Server Queuing Model with Exponential Service Times | |
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| Interpreting Queuing Formulas and Alternative Expressions | |
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| The Multiple-Server Queuing Model | |
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| Sensitivity Analysis with Spreadsheets | |
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| A Model for Nonexponential Service Times | |
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| Further Queuing Probability Topics | |
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| Additional Remarks | |
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| (Optional) Some Further Queuing Models | |
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| (Optional) Testing for Goodness of Fit | |
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| Spreadsheet Development | |
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| Simulation | |
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| Concepts and Procedures: A Waiting-Line Simulation | |
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| Simulation and the Computer | |
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| Simulation and PERT | |
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| Simulating Inventory Policies | |
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| Simulation and Forecasting | |
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| Further Spreadsheet Applications | |
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| Simulation in Finance: Risk Analysis | |
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| Simulation Versus the Analytic Solution | |
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| The Statistical Aspects of Simulation | |
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| Bibliography | |
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| Appendix Tables | |
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| Cumulative Values for the Binomial Probability Distribution | |
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| Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve | |
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| Loss Fuction for Decision Making with the Normal Curve | |
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| Exponential Functions | |
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| Cumulative Probability Values for the Poisson Distribution | |
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| Random Numbers | |
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| Critical Values of D for Kilmogorov-Smirnov Goodness-of-Fit Test | |
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| Answers to Selected Problems | |
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| Index | |