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Quantitative Decision Making with Spreadsheet Applications

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ISBN-10: 0534380247

ISBN-13: 9780534380243

Edition: 7th 2002

Authors: Lawrence L. Lapin, William D. Whisler

List price: $274.95
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Written for students with a background in algebra, this text provides a complete and modern treatment of basic management science methodology. The authors survey the variety and power of management science tools, working to alleviate students' apprehension about the subject and to enable students to recognize on-the-job situations in which management science methodology can be successfully employed. Emphasizing modeling skills for students of varying mathematical backgrounds, the authors explain how to use Microsoft Excel spreadsheets to build skills as they work through problems. In general, problems are broken into several parts to make difficult concepts easy for students to learn. This…    
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Book details

List price: $274.95
Edition: 7th
Copyright year: 2002
Publisher: Cengage South-Western
Publication date: 9/24/2001
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 840
Size: 8.25" wide x 10.50" long x 1.50" tall
Weight: 3.696
Language: English

Introduction
Introduction to Quantitative Methods
Continuing Stories of Success with Quantitative Methods
Management Science and Operations Research
Organization and Purpose of This Book
Models and Decision Making
Computer Solutions
The Importance of Studying Quantitative Methods
Introduction to Spreadsheets with Excel
The First Excel Window
Entering Formulas, Copying, Editing, and Formatting
Spreadsheet Arithmetic
Displaying Excel Results
Graphing Using Excel's Chart Wizard
Using Excel with This Text
Decision Making and Planning with Uncertainty
Probability Concepts: Quantifying Uncertainty
The Language of Probability: Basic Concepts
Probabilities for Composite Events
Joint Probability and the Multiplication Law
Finding Probabilities Using the Addition Law
Statistical Independence
Conditional Probability and the General Multiplication Law
Probability Trees
Revising Probabilities Using Bayes' Theorem
Subjective Probability
Probability Distributions and Expected Value
Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Expected Value
Finding the Probability Distribution
The Binomial Distribution
The Normal Distribution
Poisson and Exponential Distributions
(Optional) Judgmental Assessment of the Probability Distribution
Decision-Making Concepts
Certainty and Uncertainty in Decision Making
Elements of Decisions
Ranking the Alternatives and the Payoff Table
Maximizing Expected Payoff: The Bayes Decision Rule
Other Decision Criteria
Opportunity Loss and the Expected Value of Perfect Information
Decision Tree Analysis
Decision-Making and Risk: Certainty Equivalents and Utility
Decision Making Using Certainty Equivalents
Decision Making with Utility
The Utility for Money
(Optional) Attitudes Toward Risk and Valuation in Decision Making
Forecasting
Forecasting Using Past Data: Time-Series Analysis
Exponential Smoothing
Forecasting Trend Using Regression
Forecasting Using Causal Models: Regression Analysis
Forecasting Using Seasonal Indexes
Further Forecasting Procedures and the Role of Judgment
(Optional) Statistical Fundamentals of Regression Analysis
Resource Allocation
Linear Programming
The Redwood Furniture Problem
Formulating the Linear Program
Solving Linear Programs Graphically
Special Problems in Constructing Lines
Problems with More Than Two Constraints
Cost Minimization: A Feed-Mix Problem
Steps and Rationale for Graphical Solution
Mixture and Equality Constraints
Multiple Optimal Solutions
Infeasible Problems
Unbounded Problems
Linear Programming Applications and Solution Procedures
Graphing Using a Spreadsheet
Linear Programming Applications and Computer Solutions
Linear Programming in Manufacturing: Product-Mix Selection
Formulating Constraints and the Standardized Format
Slack and Surplus Variables
Solving Problems Using the Computer
Linear Programming in Finance: Portfolio Selection
Linear Programming in Transportation: Shipment Scheduling
Linear Programming in Marketing: Budgeting Advertising Expenditures
Linear Programming in Human Resources: Assigning Personnel
Linear Programming in Refining: Liquid Blending
Linear Programming in Food Processing: The Diet Problem
(Optional) The Simplex Method
(Optional) Saving Problem Data and Exhanging Data Files
Sensitivity Analysis and Duality in Linear Programming
Shadow Prices and Opportunity Costs
The Dual Linear Program
Evaluating New Products Using the Dual
Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming
Post-Optimality Analysis
(Optional) Dual for a Generalized Linear Program
(Optional) The Dual for a Cost-Minimization Primal Linear Program
Integer and Goal Programming
Integer Programming
Computer Applications with Integer Programming
Integer Programming Applications
Multi-Objective Evaluations Using Goal Programming
Solving Goal Programs on the Computer
Distribution, Routing, and Scheduling
Transportation and Assignment Problems
A Ski Shipment Scheduling Illustration
Getting Started: The Northwest Corner Method
Solving the Problem: The Transportation Method
Computer Solution to Transportation Problems
Imbalanced Capacity and Demand: Dummy Rows and Columns
The Transshipment Problem
The Assignment Problem
(Optional) Starting Procedures Based on Cost
(Optional) Other Applications of the Transportation Problem
Network Models
The Structure of Network Problems
The Shortest Route Problem
Minimal Spanning Tree Problem
The Maximum Flow Problem
The Minimum Cost Maximum Flow Problem
Further Network Considerations
(Optional) The Out-of-Kilter Algorithm
Project Management with PERT and CPM
The Importance of Time in Planning
The Basic Concepts of PERT
An Analysis of the PERT Network
Planning and Control Using the PERT Network
Computer Applications with PERT/CPM
Time--Cost Trade-Off Evaluations with PERT
Probabilistic PERT Analysis with Three Time Estimates
Implementing PERT and Further Considerations
(Optional) Alternative Network Graph: The CPM Network
(Optional) PERT Network Evaluations Using Spreadsheets
Inventory Management
Inventory Decisions with Certain Factors
Factors Influencing Inventory Policy
The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model
Optimal Inventory Policy with Backordering
Establishing Inventory Policies Based on Service Level
Inventory Policy for Lost Sales
Economic Production Quantity Model
Additional Remarks
Inventory Decisions with Uncertain Factors
Making an Inventory Decision: Maximizing Expected Payoff
Single-Period Inventory Decision: The Newsvendor Problem
Continuous Probability Distribution for Demand: The Christmas Tree Problem
Multiperiod Inventory Policies
The EOQ Models for Normally Distributed Demand
Analytic and Numerical Solution Methods
Development of the Inventory Model Spreadsheets
Simulation and Waiting Lines
Waiting Lines (Queues)
Basic Queuing Situations
The Single-Server Queuing Model with Exponential Service Times
Interpreting Queuing Formulas and Alternative Expressions
The Multiple-Server Queuing Model
Sensitivity Analysis with Spreadsheets
A Model for Nonexponential Service Times
Further Queuing Probability Topics
Additional Remarks
(Optional) Some Further Queuing Models
(Optional) Testing for Goodness of Fit
Spreadsheet Development
Simulation
Concepts and Procedures: A Waiting-Line Simulation
Simulation and the Computer
Simulation and PERT
Simulating Inventory Policies
Simulation and Forecasting
Further Spreadsheet Applications
Simulation in Finance: Risk Analysis
Simulation Versus the Analytic Solution
The Statistical Aspects of Simulation
Bibliography
Appendix Tables
Cumulative Values for the Binomial Probability Distribution
Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve
Loss Fuction for Decision Making with the Normal Curve
Exponential Functions
Cumulative Probability Values for the Poisson Distribution
Random Numbers
Critical Values of D for Kilmogorov-Smirnov Goodness-of-Fit Test
Answers to Selected Problems
Index