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Introduction | |

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Introduction to Quantitative Methods | |

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Continuing Stories of Success with Quantitative Methods | |

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Management Science and Operations Research | |

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Organization and Purpose of This Book | |

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Models and Decision Making | |

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Computer Solutions | |

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The Importance of Studying Quantitative Methods | |

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Introduction to Spreadsheets with Excel | |

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The First Excel Window | |

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Entering Formulas, Copying, Editing, and Formatting | |

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Spreadsheet Arithmetic | |

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Displaying Excel Results | |

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Graphing Using Excel's Chart Wizard | |

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Using Excel with This Text | |

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Decision Making and Planning with Uncertainty | |

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Probability Concepts: Quantifying Uncertainty | |

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The Language of Probability: Basic Concepts | |

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Probabilities for Composite Events | |

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Joint Probability and the Multiplication Law | |

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Finding Probabilities Using the Addition Law | |

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Statistical Independence | |

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Conditional Probability and the General Multiplication Law | |

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Probability Trees | |

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Revising Probabilities Using Bayes' Theorem | |

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Subjective Probability | |

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Probability Distributions and Expected Value | |

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Random Variables and Probability Distributions | |

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Expected Value | |

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Finding the Probability Distribution | |

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The Binomial Distribution | |

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The Normal Distribution | |

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Poisson and Exponential Distributions | |

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(Optional) Judgmental Assessment of the Probability Distribution | |

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Decision-Making Concepts | |

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Certainty and Uncertainty in Decision Making | |

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Elements of Decisions | |

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Ranking the Alternatives and the Payoff Table | |

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Maximizing Expected Payoff: The Bayes Decision Rule | |

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Other Decision Criteria | |

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Opportunity Loss and the Expected Value of Perfect Information | |

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Decision Tree Analysis | |

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Decision-Making and Risk: Certainty Equivalents and Utility | |

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Decision Making Using Certainty Equivalents | |

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Decision Making with Utility | |

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The Utility for Money | |

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(Optional) Attitudes Toward Risk and Valuation in Decision Making | |

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Forecasting | |

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Forecasting Using Past Data: Time-Series Analysis | |

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Exponential Smoothing | |

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Forecasting Trend Using Regression | |

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Forecasting Using Causal Models: Regression Analysis | |

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Forecasting Using Seasonal Indexes | |

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Further Forecasting Procedures and the Role of Judgment | |

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(Optional) Statistical Fundamentals of Regression Analysis | |

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Resource Allocation | |

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Linear Programming | |

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The Redwood Furniture Problem | |

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Formulating the Linear Program | |

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Solving Linear Programs Graphically | |

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Special Problems in Constructing Lines | |

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Problems with More Than Two Constraints | |

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Cost Minimization: A Feed-Mix Problem | |

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Steps and Rationale for Graphical Solution | |

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Mixture and Equality Constraints | |

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Multiple Optimal Solutions | |

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Infeasible Problems | |

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Unbounded Problems | |

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Linear Programming Applications and Solution Procedures | |

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Graphing Using a Spreadsheet | |

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Linear Programming Applications and Computer Solutions | |

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Linear Programming in Manufacturing: Product-Mix Selection | |

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Formulating Constraints and the Standardized Format | |

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Slack and Surplus Variables | |

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Solving Problems Using the Computer | |

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Linear Programming in Finance: Portfolio Selection | |

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Linear Programming in Transportation: Shipment Scheduling | |

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Linear Programming in Marketing: Budgeting Advertising Expenditures | |

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Linear Programming in Human Resources: Assigning Personnel | |

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Linear Programming in Refining: Liquid Blending | |

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Linear Programming in Food Processing: The Diet Problem | |

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(Optional) The Simplex Method | |

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(Optional) Saving Problem Data and Exhanging Data Files | |

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Sensitivity Analysis and Duality in Linear Programming | |

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Shadow Prices and Opportunity Costs | |

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The Dual Linear Program | |

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Evaluating New Products Using the Dual | |

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Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming | |

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Post-Optimality Analysis | |

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(Optional) Dual for a Generalized Linear Program | |

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(Optional) The Dual for a Cost-Minimization Primal Linear Program | |

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Integer and Goal Programming | |

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Integer Programming | |

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Computer Applications with Integer Programming | |

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Integer Programming Applications | |

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Multi-Objective Evaluations Using Goal Programming | |

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Solving Goal Programs on the Computer | |

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Distribution, Routing, and Scheduling | |

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Transportation and Assignment Problems | |

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A Ski Shipment Scheduling Illustration | |

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Getting Started: The Northwest Corner Method | |

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Solving the Problem: The Transportation Method | |

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Computer Solution to Transportation Problems | |

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Imbalanced Capacity and Demand: Dummy Rows and Columns | |

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The Transshipment Problem | |

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The Assignment Problem | |

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(Optional) Starting Procedures Based on Cost | |

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(Optional) Other Applications of the Transportation Problem | |

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Network Models | |

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The Structure of Network Problems | |

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The Shortest Route Problem | |

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Minimal Spanning Tree Problem | |

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The Maximum Flow Problem | |

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The Minimum Cost Maximum Flow Problem | |

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Further Network Considerations | |

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(Optional) The Out-of-Kilter Algorithm | |

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Project Management with PERT and CPM | |

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The Importance of Time in Planning | |

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The Basic Concepts of PERT | |

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An Analysis of the PERT Network | |

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Planning and Control Using the PERT Network | |

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Computer Applications with PERT/CPM | |

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Time--Cost Trade-Off Evaluations with PERT | |

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Probabilistic PERT Analysis with Three Time Estimates | |

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Implementing PERT and Further Considerations | |

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(Optional) Alternative Network Graph: The CPM Network | |

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(Optional) PERT Network Evaluations Using Spreadsheets | |

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Inventory Management | |

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Inventory Decisions with Certain Factors | |

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Factors Influencing Inventory Policy | |

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The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Model | |

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Optimal Inventory Policy with Backordering | |

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Establishing Inventory Policies Based on Service Level | |

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Inventory Policy for Lost Sales | |

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Economic Production Quantity Model | |

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Additional Remarks | |

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Inventory Decisions with Uncertain Factors | |

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Making an Inventory Decision: Maximizing Expected Payoff | |

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Single-Period Inventory Decision: The Newsvendor Problem | |

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Continuous Probability Distribution for Demand: The Christmas Tree Problem | |

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Multiperiod Inventory Policies | |

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The EOQ Models for Normally Distributed Demand | |

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Analytic and Numerical Solution Methods | |

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Development of the Inventory Model Spreadsheets | |

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Simulation and Waiting Lines | |

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Waiting Lines (Queues) | |

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Basic Queuing Situations | |

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The Single-Server Queuing Model with Exponential Service Times | |

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Interpreting Queuing Formulas and Alternative Expressions | |

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The Multiple-Server Queuing Model | |

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Sensitivity Analysis with Spreadsheets | |

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A Model for Nonexponential Service Times | |

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Further Queuing Probability Topics | |

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Additional Remarks | |

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(Optional) Some Further Queuing Models | |

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(Optional) Testing for Goodness of Fit | |

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Spreadsheet Development | |

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Simulation | |

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Concepts and Procedures: A Waiting-Line Simulation | |

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Simulation and the Computer | |

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Simulation and PERT | |

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Simulating Inventory Policies | |

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Simulation and Forecasting | |

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Further Spreadsheet Applications | |

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Simulation in Finance: Risk Analysis | |

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Simulation Versus the Analytic Solution | |

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The Statistical Aspects of Simulation | |

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Bibliography | |

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Appendix Tables | |

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Cumulative Values for the Binomial Probability Distribution | |

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Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve | |

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Loss Fuction for Decision Making with the Normal Curve | |

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Exponential Functions | |

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Cumulative Probability Values for the Poisson Distribution | |

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Random Numbers | |

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Critical Values of D for Kilmogorov-Smirnov Goodness-of-Fit Test | |

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Answers to Selected Problems | |

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Index | |