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Future Babble Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better

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ISBN-10: 0525952055

ISBN-13: 9780525952053

Edition: 2011

Authors: Dan Gardner

List price: $26.95
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Description:

An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babbleis the first book to examine this…    
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Book details

List price: $26.95
Copyright year: 2011
Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date: 3/17/2011
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 320
Size: 6.50" wide x 9.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.144
Language: English

Preface
Introduction
The Unpredictable World
In the Minds of Experts
The Experts Agree: Expect Much More of the Same
Unsettled by Uncertainty
Everyone Loves a Hedgehog
When Prophets Fail
The End Is Nigh
Notes
Bibliography
Index