Uncertainty A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis

ISBN-10: 0521427444

ISBN-13: 9780521427449

Edition: 1992

Authors: Millett Granger Morgan, Max Henrion

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Description:

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.
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Book details

List price: $57.00
Copyright year: 1992
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Publication date: 6/26/1992
Binding: Paperback
Pages: 346
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.00" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.034
Language: English

Preface
Introduction
Recent milestones
An overview of quantitative policy analysis
The nature of probability
Probability distributions and statistical estimation
Human judgment about and with uncertainty
Performing probability assessment
The propagation and analysis of uncertainty
The graphic communication of uncertainty
Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis
Large and complex models
The value of knowing how little you know
Index
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