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| Preface | |
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| Introduction | |
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| Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases | |
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| Representativeness | |
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| Belief in the law of small numbers | |
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| Subjective probability: a judgment of representativeness | |
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| On the psychology of presiction | |
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| Studies of representativeness | |
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| Judgments of and by representativeness | |
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| Causality and Attribution | |
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| Popular induction: information is not necessarily informative | |
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| Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty | |
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| Shortcomings in the attribution process: on the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments | |
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| Evidential impact of base rates | |
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| Availability | |
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| Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability | |
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| Egocentric biases in availability and attribution | |
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| The availability bias in social perception and interaction | |
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| The simulation heuristic | |
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| Covariation and Control | |
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| Informal covariation asssessment: data-based versus theory-based judgments | |
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| The illusion of control | |
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| Test results are what you think they are Loren | |
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| Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: problems and opportunities | |
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| Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making | |
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| Overconfidence | |
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| Overconfidence in case-study judgments | |
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| A progress report on the training of probability assessors | |
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| Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 | |
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| For those condemned to study the past: heuristics and biases in hindsight | |
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| Multistage Evaluation | |
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| Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice | |
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| Conservatism in human information processing | |
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| The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference Charles F. Gettys, Clinton Kelly III and Cameron | |
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| Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from oneG++s memory | |
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| Corrective Procedures | |
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| The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making | |
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| The vitality of mythical numbers | |
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| Intuitive prediction: biases and corrective procedures | |
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| Debiasing Baruch Fischhoff | |
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| Improving inductive inference | |
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| Risk Perception | |
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| Facts versus fears: understanding perceived risk | |
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| Postscript | |
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| On the study of statistical intuitions | |
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| Variants of uncertainty | |
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| References | |
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| Index | |