Risk and Safety Analysis of Nuclear Systems

ISBN-10: 0470907568

ISBN-13: 9780470907566

Edition: 2011

Authors: John C. Lee, Norman J. McCormick

List price: $195.95
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Description:

The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program.The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems.The second half of the book covers the safety analysis of nuclear energy systems, an analysis of major accidents and incidents that occurred in commercial nuclear plants, applications of PRA techniques to the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (focusing on a major PRA study for five nuclear power plants), practical PRA examples, and emerging techniques in the structure of dynamic event trees and fault trees that can provide a more realistic representation of complex sequences of events. The book concludes with a discussion on passive safety features of advanced nuclear energy systems under development and approaches taken for risk-informed regulations for nuclear plants.
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Book details

List price: $195.95
Copyright year: 2011
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
Publication date: 6/22/2011
Binding: Hardcover
Pages: 504
Size: 6.25" wide x 9.50" long x 1.00" tall
Weight: 1.760
Language: English

Preface
Permissions and Copyrights
List of Tables
List of Figures
Risk and Safety of Engineered Systems
Risk and Its Perception and Acceptance
Overview of Risk and Safety Analysis
Two Historical Reactor Accidents
Definition of Risk
Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety
Organization of the Book
References
Probabilities of Events
Events
Event Tree Analysis and Minimal Cut Sets
Probabilities
Interpretations of Probability
Axiomatic Approach to Probabilities
Intersection of Events
Union of Events
Decomposition Rule for Probabilities
Time-Independent Versus Time-Dependent Probabilities
Time-Independent Probabilities
Introduction
Time-Independent Probability Distributions
Normal Distribution
Reliability Functions
Time-Dependent Probability Distributions
Erlangian and Exponential Distributions
Gamma Distribution
Lognormal Distribution
Weibull Distribution
Generalized �Bathtub� Distribution
Selection of a Time-Dependent Probability Distribution
Extreme-Value Probability Distributions
Probability Models for Failure Analyses
References
Exercises
Reliability Data
Estimation Theory
Moment Estimators
Maximum Likelihood Estimators
Maximum Entropy Estimators
Comparison of Estimators
Bayesian Updating of Data
Bayes Equation
Applications of the Bayes Equation
Central Limit Theorem and Hypothesis Testing
Interpretation of the Central Limit Theorem
Hypothesis Testing with the Central Limit Theorem
Reliability Quantification
Central Limit Theorem for Reliability Quantification
Engineering Approach for Reliability Quantification
X<sup>2</sup>-Distribution for Reliability Quantification
Three-Way Comparison and Concluding Remarks
References
Excercises
Reliability of Multiple-Component Systems
Series and Active-Parallel Systems
Systems with Independent Components
Systems with Redundant Components
Fail-to-Safety and Fail-to-Danger Systems
Systems with Standby Components
Decomposition Analysis
Signal Flow Graph Analysis
Cut Set Analysis
References
Exercises
Availability and Reliability of Systems with Repair
Introduction
Markov Method
Markov Governing Equations
Solution of Markov Governing Equations
An Elementary Example
Availability Analyses
Rules for Constructing Transition Rate Matrices
Availability Transition Rate Matrices
Time-Dependent Availability Examples
Steady-State Availability
Reliability Analyses
Reliability Transition Rate Matrices
Time-Dependent Reliability Examples
Mean Time to Failure
Additional Capabilities of Markov Models
Imperfect Switching Between System States
Systems with Nonconstant Hazard Rates
References
Exercises
Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Failure Modes
Classification of Failure Events
Primary, Secondary, and Command Failures
Common Cause Failures
Human Errors
Failure Data
Hardware Failures
Human Errors
Combination of Failures and Consequences
Inductive Methods
Event Tree Analysis
Fault Tree Analysis
Introduction
Fault Tree Construction
Qualitative Fault Tree Analysis
Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis
Common Cause Failures and Fault Tree Analysis
Master Logic Diagram
Uncertainty and Importance Analysis
Types of Uncertainty in PRAs
Stochastic Uncertainty Analysis
Sensitivity and Importance Analysis
References
Exercises
Computer Programs for Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Fault Tree Methodology of the SAPHIRE Code
Gate Conversion and Tree Restructuring
Simplification of the Tree
Fault Tree Expansion and Reduction
Fault and Event Tree Evaluation with the SAPHERE Code
Other Features of the SAPHIRE Code
Other PRA Codes
Binary Decision Diagram Algorithm
Basic Formulation of the BDD Algorithm
Generalization of the BDD Formulation
Zero-Suppressed BDD Algorithm and the FTREX Code
References
Exercises
Nuclear Power Plant Safety Analysis
Engineered Safety Features of Nuclear Power Plants
Pressurized Water Reactor
Boiling Water Reactor
Accident Classification and General Design Goals
Plant Operating States
Accident Classification in 10 CFR 50
General Design Criteria and Safety Goals
Design Basis Accident: Large-Break LOCA
Typical Sequence of a Cold-Leg LBLOCA in PWR
ECCS Specifications
Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty Evaluation
Severe (Class 9) Accidents
Anticipated Transients Without Scram
History and Background of the ATWS Issue
Resolution of the ATWS Issues
Power Coefficients of Reactivity in LWRs
Radiological Source and Atmospheric Dispersion
Radiological Source Term
Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Plume
Simple Models for Dose Rate Calculation
Biological Effects of Radiation Exposure
References
Exercises
Major Nuclear Power Plant Accidents and Incidents
Three Mile Island Unit 2 Accident
Sequence of the Accident-March 1979
Implications and Follow-Up of the Accident
PWR In-Vessel Accident Progression
Core Uncovery and Heatup
Cladding Oxidation
Clad Melting and Fuel Liquefaction
Molten Core Slumping and Relocation
Vessel Breach
Chernobyl Accident
Cause and Nature of the Accident-April 1986
Sequence of the Accident
Estimate of Energy Release in the Accident
Accident Consequences
Comparison of the TMI and Chernobyl Accidents
Fukushima Station Accident
Sequence of the Accident-March 2011
March 2011 Perspectives on the Fukushima SBO Event
Salem Anticipated Transient Without Scram
Chronology and Cause of the Salem Incident
Implications and Follow-Up of the Salem ATWS Event
LaSalle Transient Event
LaSalle Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave Oscillations
Simple Model for Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave Oscillations
Implications and Follow-Up of the LaSalle Incident
Davis-Besse Potential LOCA Event
Background and Chronology of the Incident
NRC Decision to Grant DB Shutdown Delay
Causes for the Davis-Besse Incident and Follow-Up
References
Exercises
PRA Studies of Nuclear Power Plants
WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study
Assessment of Severe Accident Risks: NUREG-1150
Background and Scope of the NUREG-1150 Study
Overview of NUREG-1150 Methodology
Accident Frequency Analysis
Accident Progression Analysis
Radionuclide Transport Analysis
Offsite Consequence Analysis
Uncertainty Analysis
Risk Integration
Additional Perspectives and Comments on NUREG-1150
Simplified PRA in the Structure of NUREG-1150
Description of the Simplified PRA Model
Parametric Studies and Comments on the Simplified PRA Model
References
Exercises
Passive Safety and Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems
Passive Safety Demonstration Tests at EBR-II
EBR-II Primary System and Simplified Model
Unprotected Loss-of-Flow and Loss-of-Heat-Sink Tests
Simplified Fuel Channel Analysis
Implications of EBR-II Passive Safety Demonstration Tests
Safety Characteristics of Generation III+ Plants
AP1000 Design Features
Small-Break LOCA Analysis for AP1000
Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor
Reliability Quantification of SBWR Passive Safety Containment
Generation IV Nuclear Power Plants
Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor
Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents for Fast Reactors
VHTR and Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table
References
Exercises
Risk-Infoimed Regulations and Reliability-Centered Maintenance
Risk Measures for Nuclear Plant Regulations
Principles of Risk-Informed Regulations and Licensing
Uncertainties in Risk-Informed Decision Making
Other Initiatives in Risk-Informed Regulations
Reliability-Centered Maintenance
Optimization Strategy for Preventive Maintenance
Reliability-Centered Maintenance Framework
Cost-Benefit Considerations
References
Exercises
Dynamic Event Tree Analysis
Basic Features of Dynamic Event Tree Analysis
Continuous Event Tree Formulation
Derivation of the Stochastic Balance Equation
Integral Form of the Stochastic Balance Equation
Numerical Solution of the Stochastic Balance Equation
Cell-to-Cell Mapping for Parameter Estimation
Derivation of the Bayesian Recursive Relationship
CCM Technique for Dynamic Event Tree Construction
Diagnosis of Component Degradations
Bayesian Framework for Component Diagnostics
Implementation of the Probabilistic Diagnostic Algorithm
References
Exercises
Reactor Radiological Sources
Fission Product Inventory and Decay Heat
Health Effects of Radiation Exposure
References
Some Special Mathematical Functions
Gamma Function
Error Function
References
Some Failure Rate Data
Linear Kalman Filter Algorithm
References
Answers to Selected Exercises
Index
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