| |
| |
Preface | |
| |
| |
Preface to First Edition | |
| |
| |
| |
Introduction to Statistical Science | |
| |
| |
| |
The Scientific Method: A Process for Learning | |
| |
| |
| |
The Role of Statistics in the Scientific Method | |
| |
| |
| |
Main Approaches to Statistics | |
| |
| |
| |
Purpose and Organization of This Text | |
| |
| |
| |
Scientific Data Gathering | |
| |
| |
| |
Sampling from a Real Population | |
| |
| |
| |
Observational Studies and Designed Experiments | |
| |
| |
Monte Carlo Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Displaying and Summarizing Data | |
| |
| |
| |
Graphically Displaying a Single Variable | |
| |
| |
| |
Graphically Comparing Two Samples | |
| |
| |
| |
Measures of Location | |
| |
| |
| |
Measures of Spread | |
| |
| |
| |
Displaying Relationships Between Two or More Variables | |
| |
| |
| |
Measures of Association for Two or More Variables | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Logic, Probability, and Uncertainty | |
| |
| |
| |
Deductive Logic and Plausible Reasoning | |
| |
| |
| |
Probability | |
| |
| |
| |
Axioms of Probability | |
| |
| |
| |
Joint Probability and Independent Events | |
| |
| |
| |
Conditional Probability | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayes' Theorem | |
| |
| |
| |
Assigning Probabilities | |
| |
| |
| |
Odds Ratios and Bayes Factor | |
| |
| |
| |
Beat the Dealer | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Discrete Random Variables | |
| |
| |
| |
Discrete Random Variables | |
| |
| |
| |
Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable | |
| |
| |
| |
Binomial Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
Hypergeometric Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
Poisson Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
Joint Random Variables | |
| |
| |
| |
Conditional Probability for Joint Random Variables | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayesian Inference for Discrete Random Variables | |
| |
| |
| |
Two Equivalent Ways of Using Bayes' Theorem | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayes' Theorem for Binomial with Discrete Prior | |
| |
| |
| |
Important Consequences of Bayes' Theorem | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayes' theorem for Poisson with Discrete Prior | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
Computer Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Continuous Random Variables | |
| |
| |
| |
Probability Density Function | |
| |
| |
| |
Some Continuous Distributions | |
| |
| |
| |
Joint Continuous Random Variables | |
| |
| |
| |
Joint Continuous and Discrete Random Variables | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayesian Inference for Binomial Proportion | |
| |
| |
| |
Using a Uniform Prior | |
| |
| |
| |
Using a Beta Prior | |
| |
| |
| |
Choosing Your Prior | |
| |
| |
| |
Summarizing the Posterior Distribution | |
| |
| |
| |
Estimating the Proportion | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayesian Credible Interval | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
Computer Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Comparing Bayesian and Frequentist Inferences for Proportion | |
| |
| |
| |
Frequentist Interpretation of Probability and Parameters | |
| |
| |
| |
Point Estimation | |
| |
| |
| |
Comparing Estimators for Proportion | |
| |
| |
| |
Interval Estimation | |
| |
| |
| |
Hypothesis Testing | |
| |
| |
| |
Testing a OneSided Hypothesis | |
| |
| |
| |
Testing a TwoSided Hypothesis | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
Carlo Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayesian Inference for Poisson | |
| |
| |
| |
Some Prior Distributions for Poisson | |
| |
| |
| |
Inference for Poisson Parameter | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
Computer Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayesian Inference for Normal Mean | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayes' Theorem for Normal Mean with a Discrete Prior | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayes' Theorem for Normal Mean with a Continuous Prior | |
| |
| |
| |
Choosing Your Normal Prior | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayesian Credible Interval for Normal Mean | |
| |
| |
| |
Predictive Density for Next Observation | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
Computer Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Comparing Bayesian and Frequentist Inferences for Mean | |
| |
| |
| |
Comparing Frequentist and Bayesian Point Estimators | |
| |
| |
| |
Comparing Confidence and Credible Intervals for Mean | |
| |
| |
| |
Testing a OneSided Hypothesis about a Normal Mean | |
| |
| |
| |
Testing a TwoSided Hypothesis about a Normal Mean | |
| |
| |
Exercises | |
| |
| |
| |
Bayesian Infer | |