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Introduction | |
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What Is a Population Projection? | |
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Projections, Forecasts, Estimates | |
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Alternative Approaches to Projecting Population | |
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Why Make Population Projections? | |
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Roles of Projections | |
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Projections and Decision Making | |
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Forecasting and Planning | |
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How Can This Book Help? | |
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Objectives | |
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Geographic Focus | |
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Coverage | |
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Target Audience | |
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Fundamentals of Population Analysis | |
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Demographic Concepts | |
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Size | |
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Distribution | |
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Composition | |
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Change | |
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Components of Change | |
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Fertility | |
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Mortality | |
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Migration | |
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Demographic Balancing Equation | |
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Statistical Measures | |
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Sources of Data | |
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Decennial Census | |
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Vital Statistics | |
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Sample Surveys | |
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Administrative Records | |
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Population Estimates | |
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Overview of the Cohort-Component Method | |
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Concepts and Terminology | |
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Brief Description of Procedures | |
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Mortality | |
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Mortality Measures | |
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Crude Death Rate | |
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Age-Specific Death Rate | |
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Survival Rates | |
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Life Table Survival Rates | |
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Census Survival Rates | |
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Approaches to Projecting Mortality Rates | |
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Constant Rates | |
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Trend Extrapolation | |
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Targeting | |
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Cause-Delay | |
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Synthetic Projection | |
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Implementing the Mortality Component | |
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Sources of Data | |
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Views of the Future | |
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Examples | |
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Conclusions | |
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Fertility | |
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Fertility Measures | |
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Crude Birth Rate | |
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General Fertility Rate | |
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Age-Specific Birth Rate | |
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Total Fertility Rate | |
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Child-Woman Ratio | |
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Two Perspectives: Period and Cohort | |
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Defining the Relationship | |
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Assessing the Issues | |
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Approaches to Projecting Fertility Rates | |
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Using Period Rates | |
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Using Cohort Rates | |
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Implementing the Fertility Component | |
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Sources of Data | |
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Views of the Future | |
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Examples | |
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Conclusions | |
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Migration | |
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Concepts, Measures, Definitions | |
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Place of Residence | |
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Mobility and Migration | |
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Length of Migration Interval | |
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Gross and Net Migration | |
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Migration Rates | |
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International and Internal Migration | |
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Assessing the Issues | |
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Sources of Data | |
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Decennial Census | |
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Administrative Records | |
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Sample Surveys | |
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Residual Estimates | |
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Determinants of Migration | |
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Theoretical Foundations | |
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Reasons for Moving | |
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Statistical Analyses | |
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Migration Models | |
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Gross Migration | |
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Net Migration | |
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Implementing the Migration Component | |
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Choosing Appropriate Models | |
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Choosing Data and Assumptions | |
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Accounting for Unique Events and Special Populations | |
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Accounting for Data Problems | |
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Converting Data to Alternate Time Intervals | |
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Conclusions | |
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Implementing the Cohort-Component Method | |
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General Considerations | |
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Applying the Cohort-Component Method | |
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Gross Migration (Model I) | |
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Net Migration (Model II) | |
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Hamilton-Perry (Model III) | |
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Comparing Models I, II, and III | |
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Conclusions | |
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Trend Extrapolation Methods | |
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Simple Methods | |
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Linear | |
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Geometric | |
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Exponential | |
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Complex Methods | |
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Linear Trend | |
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Polynomial Curve Fitting | |
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Logistic Curve Fitting | |
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ARIMA Model | |
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Ratio Methods | |
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Constant-Share | |
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Shift-Share | |
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Share-of-Growth | |
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Other Applications | |
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Analyzing Projection Results | |
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Conclusions | |
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Structural Models I: Economic-Demographic | |
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Overview of Structural Models | |
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Focus on Migration | |
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Factors Affecting Migration | |
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Employment | |
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Unemployment Rate | |
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Wages and Income | |
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Amenities | |
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Recursive Models | |
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Econometric Models | |
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Balancing Labor Supply and Demand | |
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Population/Employment Ratios | |
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Nonrecursive Models | |
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Economic and Demographic Relationships | |
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Regional Economic Models, Incorporated (REMI) | |
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Conclusions | |
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Structural Models II: Urban Systems | |
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A Brief History of Urban Systems Models | |
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Components of Urban Systems Models | |
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Regional Projections | |
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Zonal Land Use and Activity Model | |
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Transportation Model | |
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Linking the Components | |
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Data Requirements and Sources | |
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Population, Housing, Income | |
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Employment | |
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Land Use | |
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Illustration of a Residential Location Model | |
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Land Use and Activity Models Used Today | |
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DRAM and EMPAL: Descendants of Lowry's Gravity Model | |
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POLIS: An Optimization Model | |
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Land Pricing Models | |
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Microgeographic Land Use and Activity Models | |
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California Urban Futures Model | |
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Conclusions | |
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Special Adjustments | |
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International Migration | |
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Special Populations | |
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Incorporating Special Populations into the Projection | |
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Assessing Data for Special Populations | |
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Illustrating the Impact of a Special Population | |
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Census Enumeration Errors | |
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Controlling | |
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Controlling to Independent Projections | |
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Controlling to Projections of Larger Geographic Areas | |
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Providing Additional Temporal and Age Detail | |
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Adding Temporal Detail | |
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Adding Age Detail | |
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Conclusions | |
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Evaluating Projections | |
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Evaluation Criteria | |
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Provision of Necessary Detail | |
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Face Validity | |
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Plausibility | |
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Costs of Production | |
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Timeliness | |
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Ease of Application and Explanation | |
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Usefulness as an Analytical Tool | |
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Political Acceptability | |
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Forecast Accuracy | |
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A Balancing Act | |
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Comparing Methods | |
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Provision of Detail | |
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Face Validity and Plausibility | |
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Costs and Timeliness | |
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Ease of Application and Explanation | |
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Usefulness as an Analytical Tool | |
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Political Acceptability | |
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Forecast Accuracy | |
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Conclusions | |
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Forecast Accuracy and Bias | |
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Measuring Accuracy and Bias | |
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Defining Forecast Error | |
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Common Error Measures | |
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Selection Criteria | |
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Factors That Affect Accuracy and Bias | |
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Projection Method | |
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Population Size | |
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Population Growth Rate | |
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Length of Horizon | |
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Length of Base Period | |
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Launch Year | |
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Combining Forecasts | |
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Accounting for Uncertainty | |
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Range of Projections | |
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Prediction Intervals | |
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Conclusions | |
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A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections | |
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Determine What Is Needed | |
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Demographic Characteristics | |
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Geographic Areas | |
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Length of Horizon and Projection Interval | |
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Time and Budget Constraints | |
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Other Considerations | |
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Construct the Projections | |
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Select Computer Software | |
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Choose Projection Method(s) | |
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Collect and Evaluate Data | |
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Adjust for Special Events | |
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Control for Consistency | |
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Account for Uncertainty | |
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Review and Document the Results | |
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Internal Review | |
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External Review | |
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Documentation | |
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Conclusions | |
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New Directions in Population Projection Research | |
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Technological Developments | |
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Data Availability | |
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Computing Capabilities | |
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Geographic Information Systems | |
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Methodological Developments | |
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Microsimulation Models | |
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Spatial Diffusion Models | |
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Artificial Neural Networks | |
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Integrating Expert Judgment | |
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Measuring Uncertainty | |
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Combining Projections | |
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Scope of Projections | |
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Some Challenges | |
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Glossary | |
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References | |
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Author Index | |
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Subject Index | |